Chatham House: Independent thinking on international affairs

Event

Israel in Context: Security Challenges and Regional Relations

Wednesday 3 October 2012 13:00 to 14:00 BST

Location

Chatham House, London

Participants

Yossi Mekelberg, Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House; Programme Director, International Relations and Social Sciences, Regent's College
Nicolas Pelham, Jerusalem Correspondent, The Economist
Dr Sara Bazoobandi, Visiting Research Fellow, Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore
Chair: Jane Kinninmont, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House


Type: Members Events

A panel of experts will discuss the security challenges facing Israel with tensions running high over Iran's nuclear programme, increasing instability in the Sinai Peninsula and continued fighting in Syria. They will explore the internal pressures within Israel and how its government may react to external developments. The position of neighbouring actors and the effect of Israel’s possible responses on regional stability will also be considered.

For more information about this event please contact the Members Events Team  


Resources:

Audio (MP3) Israel in Context: Security Challenges and Regional Relations (Click to download)

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Filesize: 21.35 MB, Length: 31:00

Viewpoints: Anti-Islam film and self-censorship

Details
Source: 
BBC News
URL: 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19632673

This is not just about freedom of speech, but the realities of technology. Even in authoritarian countries censorship is growing harder to enforce, says Jane Kinninmont.

Prophet film protests: Where are the moderate voices?

Details
Source: 
Channel 4 News
URL: 
http://www.channel4.com/news/prophet-film-protests-where-are-the-moderate-voices

Activists across the region have many other important issues taking up their time and energy. You may want to focus more on people's freedom to criticize their own governments than on the freedom to mock religious symbols, says Jane Kinninmont.

US may need to readjust focus in Arab relations

Details
Source: 
Deutsche Welle
URL: 
http://www.dw.de/dw/article/0,,16242437,00.html

These protests are only partly about the film, says Jane Kinninmont. They reflect more the ongoing volatility in these countries.

Event

Sinai: the Collapse of a Regional Buffer

Tuesday 2 October 2012 13:30 to 15:00 BST

Location

Chatham House, London

Participants

Nicolas Pelham, Jerusalem Correspondent, The Economist
Chair: Jane Kinninmont, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House


Type: Fee-paying or special invitation events

The Sinai Peninsula, which once acted as a buffer between Israel and Egypt, has seen increasing instability in recent months. The 5 August attack which killed 16 Egyptian soldiers and penetrated Israel's border defences, highlights the dangers of the prevailing vacuum. Decades of Bedouin discrimination and discontent, Jihadi revivalism and the lucrative informal tunnel economy to Gaza all contribute to increasing instability and violence, as militant groups take hold.


Egyptian president's firing of top officers may find favor with military, politicians alike

Details
Source: 
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: 
http://www.rferl.org/content/egypt-presidents-dismissal-of-top-officers-may-find-favor/24676473.html

Morsi took political advantage of the Sinai situation to assert power over top military leaders. These are uncharted political waters but very much part of the process of democratization, says Maha Azzam in an interview.

Expert Comment

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Morsy's Move, More Change to Come

Tuesday 14 August 2012 by Jane Kinninmont, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme
   

Morsy's Move, More Change to Come

Egypt's Morsy: 'Imperial' president or step forward for revolution?

Details
Source: 
CNN
URL: 
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/08/13/world/meast/egypt-political-analysis/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_latest+%28RSS%3A+Most+Recent%29

After the removal of top military leaders, Egypt now has an almost all-powerful president - and no parliament, says Jane Kinninmont.

Egypt hits Sinai to crack down on terror

Details
Source: 
The Washington Times
URL: 
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/aug/8/egypt-hits-sinai-to-crack-down-on-terror/

According to Yossi Mekelberg, the crackdown on smuggling might be an attempt by the army to assert their authority. It says that, ‘Whoever is now president, we are the ones calling the shots.’

Morsy's plan to keep the Egyptian army sweet

Morsy's plan to keep the Egyptian army sweet

David Hearst, Chief Foreign Leader Writer, The Guardian, August 2012
The World Today, Volume 68, Number 7

Mohammed Morsy, Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood aligned president, is on a collision course with the army, or so say the headlines. But there are powerful voices within the new leadership saying there are limits to how fast the military can be sent back to barracks.

No one in the Brotherhood is suggesting that the army be dispossessed of its economic and industrial empire. Nor will there be any immediate move to deprive the General Intelligence Service of its most important responsibility – keeping the uneasy peace with Israel.

The GIS are the people who arrange prisoner swaps and ceasefires between Hamas and Israel, or reconciliation talks between Fatah and Hamas. General Omar Suleiman, the recently deceased former chief of General Intelligence, was Hosni Mubarak’s contact man with Israel.

The source for this revelation is a primary one: Khairat El-Shater, a self-made millionaire and Muslim Brotherhood financier who denies he seeks high office for himself.

‘We recognise that Mubarak succeeded in making Islamists a scapegoat for the West and that our image is negative,’ he said in an interview in Cairo. ‘We realize that we need more effort, more dialogue to explain who we are and to build confidence between us and others outside Egypt.

‘Bridges of confidence cannot be built on the basis of talks only. There must be practical solutions. We realize that at this stage we should continue to employ the same individuals who followed relations with external parties, including Egyptian General Intelligence, which held the foreign relation file with Israel.

‘This is sensitive for us, but … we have no objection for these parties to continue running these files in consultation with the president and the prime minister. We don’t want change for change’s sake. We realize that politics is the art of the possible.’

Morsy has now embarked on what could prove to be a long campaign of attrition to repatriate the powers of the presidency, which were taken from the office in a decree issued by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) two days before voting began in the presidential election. He has so far acted boldly, issuing a decree reinstating parliament that was rendered inquorate by the constitutional court and then dissolved by SCAF.

Insiders say his next target will be the National Defence Council, a body which is mentioned in both the 1956 and 1971 constitutions, but which is only supposed to convene in times of national emergency. SCAF’s decree packed the body with an in-built military majority. It turned the council into a Burmese style junta.

Taking it on is a high-risk strategy. It could provoke a fully fledged military coup. But the Brotherhood is determined to establish a presidency with real powers. With the exception of the post of Defence Minister, all the cabinet appointments, they insist will be theirs.

El-Shater has the reputation, rightly or wrongly, as a hardliner in the Brotherhood, a man who combines the strengths of a strategist with the practical grip of an accountant. He controls where the money goes. He reviewed the gas contract with Israel which the transitional government in Egypt cancelled.

While he says that Egypt under new management will respect international treaties, such as the Camp David accords with Israel, he also reminds us that Anwar Sadat did not just put the peace accord with Israel through the National Assembly. He also put it to a referendum. The same thing, El-Shater implies, could happen in reverse. El-Shater has developed a working relationship with Anne Patterson, the US Ambassador, a career diplomat who has been through the mill of Islamist politics in Pakistan. The British, French and Australian and Japanese Ambassadors are regular callers. ‘These countries were 100 per cent afraid of us at the start of the revolution. Now their concerns are about 80 per cent,’ he said with a smile.

The message he gives them is the same: Morsy’s first task as President will be to establish the presidency as a national institution shared out among all political parties, with vice-presidents and their advisers representing the broadest coalition of secular politicians, Christian Copts and women. The Prime Minister will run a technocratic government, where competence not affiliation will be the test.

His second message is that the battle with the military is a distraction from the real problem facing Egypt – poverty. ‘We have huge problems. Forty per cent of our people are below the poverty line, our internal and external debt has reached unprecedented levels. All the studies say it will take several years to save Egypt from drowning.

‘If we don’t solve these economic problems, in the coming years, there may be a revolution of the hungry. If this happened in Egypt, nobody would control it. It could plunge this country into a state similar to Somalia and it would infect the neighbouring countries.’

Morsy has a mammoth task, and he has to deliver quickly.

David Hearst, Chief Foreign Leader Writer, The Guardian

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Middle East
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David Hearst, Chief Foreign Leader Writer, The Guardian
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Article Number: 
16
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