Chatham House: Independent thinking on international affairs

Deleveraging the West: The impact on global growth

A Chatham House City Series Conference
12 November 2012


Session One
Restoring Confidence and Growth in Developed Economies
09:30

  • Whilst imposing austerity measures, what can governments do to restore growth, credit, and confidence?
  • What will be the effect of the Federal Reserve’s ‘QE3’ stimulus?
  • In the US, will political agreement be reached on the so-called ‘fiscal cliff’?

Chair
Chris Giles
Economics Editor
Financial Times

Speakers
Andy Haldane
Executive Director, Financial Stability
Bank of England

David Wilcox
Director of Research and Statistics
Federal Reserve System

Charles Roxburgh
Director
McKinsey Global Institute

Questions and discussion

11.00 - 11.30 Refreshments

Session Two
The EU in Crisis

Will the European Union come to agreement on its fiscal and political future?  Can it avoid a ‘lost decade’?

  • Can deleveraging occur in the context of the eurozone’s fiscal and political crisis? If so, how can deleveraging occur without any prospect of growth?
  • What further steps, if any, should the European Central Bank take to restore liquidity and stability?
  • How will Europe balance its creditor and debtor economies?
  • How long will monetary easing continue to be effective?


High level conversation

Moderator
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi
Visiting Scholar on Transatlantic Relations, Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University and
Former Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank

Panellists
Fernando Jiménez Latorre
Secretary of State for Economic and Business Affairs
Spain

David Owen
Chief Financial Economist
Jefferies & Co

Questions & Discussion

12.30 - 13.30 Lunch

Session Three
Financial Services and Growth

What will be the role of financial services organizations in creating growth?

  • What steps is Europe taking to develop its capital markets in response to the ‘credit crunch’?
  • What sources of finance will there be for growth companies?
  • How will the European Central Bank’s regulatory role develop? What form will banking union take?
  • What impact is pressure to deleverage having on banks’ structures, operations, remuneration systems, ownership and solvency?
  • What is progress on resolution plans?  Are banks still ‘too big to fail’?


Chair
Patrick Jenkins
Banking Editor
Financial Times

Speakers
Adam Farkas
Executive Director
European Banking Authority

Huw van Steenis
Managing Director, Bank Analyst
Morgan Stanley
   
Rory Cullinan
CEO, Non-Core Division
Royal Bank of Scotland

Spencer Lake
Co-head, Global Markets
HSBC

Questions & Discussion

15.00 - 15.30 Refreshments

Session Four
A New Global Economic Order?

There is a desire for a new economic order, but much remains to be done.

  • What will be the impact of the West’s economic slowdown on emerging economies?
  • Where will growth come from?
  • Are new imbalances forming?
  • What will be the role of international banks?
  • Will there be effective global governance in this emerging economic order?

Chair
Stuart Popham
Chair
Chatham House

Speakers
Stephen Jen
Founding Partner
SLJ Macro Partners

Gerard Lyons
Chief Economist and Group Head of Global Research
Standard Chartered Bank


Questions & Discussion

Keynote Speaker
David Lipton (on the record)
First Deputy Managing Director
International Monetary Fund

Questions & Discussion

17.00    End of conference and drinks reception hosted by Chatham House

© The Royal Institute of International Affairs 2012