'Putin's behaviour suggests he believes that the US and the EU have neither a concept for stabilizing Ukraine nor the appetite to bail it out economically,' said John Lough. 'He also does not appear to take seriously the threat of strong Western economic sanctions.'
'It's unwise to issue ultimatums without being able to back them up with concrete action, but the actions that the interim government can take are actually fairly limited - they know that a heavy-handed military response to what's happening in the eastern Ukrainian towns is very likely to provoke action by Russia in response,' said Keir Giles.
Both groups share the same concerns, are disaffected by politics and anxious about immigration, but there the similarities end, writes Matthew Goodwin.
'The EU is going to take this very slowly. There is a much stronger push coming at the moment from the United States. But the fact that Germany, which has the closest business relationship with Russia, is talking about the possibility of going to stage 3 sanctions if Russia continues to destabilize the situation in Ukraine, is very significant,' says John Lough. (16:45)
Putin's actions are not a response to European and American provocations. He has painted himself into a corner with a combination of strategic paranoia, dreams of Russian revanche and economic illiteracy, writes Robin Niblett.