Research publications

The success of the US plan for a peaceful and prosperous Venezuela hinges on establishing and sustaining an effective, independent judicial system, and improving protection of private property, contract rights and human rights.

With no clear route to a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire, mounting external pressure on Kyiv could push it into an agreement that undermines the security of both Ukraine and Europe.

Water is a critical, but often overlooked, input in the production and trade of commodities and manufactured goods. Until impacts such as water-resource depletion and degradation are more explicitly factored into supply-chain policies, international trade will continue to drive unsustainable water use.

After the expiry of New START in early 2026, the prospects for formal arms control appear limited. But a costly new arms race can still be avoided.

The AI race is often presented as being contested by the US and China, with other countries having little to no chance of catching up. Geopolitical tensions and the trends towards defence-driven innovation and tech sovereignty may soon challenge that assumption.

As Venezuela adjusts to the post-Maduro era, calls for elections are growing among the opposition and foreign governments. The urgent question is how to act quickly enough to take advantage of the new political situation without neglecting the unavoidably complex political and institutional preparatory reforms essential for ensuring credible elections.

Proponents of inclusive, effective and global AI governance must confront a difficult truth: that rapid progress towards global AI governance may only become politically feasible in the event of a crisis, when the costs of inaction become too great to ignore.

In Russia’s war against Ukraine, non-state actors of varying closeness to the Russian government – from apparent GRU contractors to cybercriminals to independent hacktivists – have launched cyberattacks and spread disinformation. What can be done to combat the activities of such cyber proxies?

While the US and China dominate AI, effective sovereign strategies can help middle powers ensure that this emerging technology is deployed in the national interest.

The EU’s low-carbon transition is important not only for tackling climate change, but also offers critical benefits for energy security in a bloc where a high dependence on imported fossil fuels is a source of economic and geopolitical vulnerability.

Many states criminalize cybercrimes such as online fraud and hacking. But there is a gap when it comes to the use of cyber means to commit the core international crimes of genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes and aggression. This paper proposes ways to improve the prospects for prosecution.

Gang violence and state weakness continue to undermine security in Haiti, and the expiry of the transitional government’s mandate in February 2026 could bring further instability. This paper proposes a programme of reforms that could start to restore security and public services.

Russia sees Belarus as a strategic asset in its confrontations with Ukraine and NATO. For the sake of regional security, Western governments must encourage Minsk towards a more neutral stance.

With global freshwater supplies under increasing pressure, understanding and addressing the direct and indirect water use associated with food and agricultural trade is emerging as a critical sustainability challenge.

The climate governance choices of MENA states will have profound implications for regional stability and economic transformation. Balancing between public participation and strong institutional capacity will be essential for effective climate action.

Efforts to restore stability in Libya have too often focused on power- and wealth-sharing among rival factions. To be effective, peacebuilding must also include formally mediated economic negotiations.

With the new US national security strategy demanding greater burden-sharing by Japan and South Korea, officials and policymakers in all three countries must focus on delivering tangible benefits if they are to sustain their trilateral partnership.

South Korea’s new government faces difficult choices in managing its ties with the US, China and North Korea. This paper explores how Seoul can learn from the policies of past governments to balance its commitments to Washington with wider global ambitions.

Foreign aid cuts present security and geopolitical challenges for the UK. To remain influential in this new era of aid scarcity, the UK must cooperate with European allies and other donors to develop wider-ranging partnerships with Global South states and revitalize multilateral cooperation.

Digital infrastructure can transform vital services, such as tax collection, payment systems and healthcare. This paper examines global best practices of digitalization and suggests how governments can address concerns over privacy and civil liberties.

A widening trade surplus with developing countries complicates China’s geopolitical agenda. Boosting Chinese domestic demand and letting the renminbi appreciate more could ease economic tensions with trade partners in the Global South.

Intensifying climate and geopolitical disruptions are combining to create significant and unforeseen effects on food security globally. Multi-hazard early-warning systems have a critical role to play in addressing these issues through enhanced monitoring and closer cooperation with at-risk communities.

By tightening the price cap on Russia’s oil exports and enforcing restrictions on shipments more robustly, Ukraine’s allies can increase the pressure on Putin to end the war.

While the Black Sea plays a pivotal role in Russia’s strategic thinking, the region also presents a critical opportunity for the West to contain Moscow’s global ambitions.

The Indo-Pacific is critical to Britain’s long-term interests, especially in relation to trade and investment, security and climate change. The region deserves due prominence in UK foreign policy despite the government’s understandable focus on current risks in Europe.

Russia’s military industry is struggling to modernize under the weight of sanctions and the demands of war. The West must aim to widen the growing technological gap with Moscow to blunt the latter’s threat.

The increased use of sanctions in recent years has caused growing concern about the efficacy and unintended consequences of these measures. This paper looks at how to improve the implementation of sanctions.

The UK cannot avoid deepening bilateral links with China, but policymakers must go much further to mitigate the risks of closer engagement while also insulating the relationship from Sino-US tensions.

Using the 2025 Chatham House survey of Ukrainian civil society organizations, this research paper explores how the state, communities, citizens and external donors can cooperate in Ukraine’s reconstruction.

Geopolitical fragmentation is making conflict harder to resolve. Policy interventions must adapt to a world in which the political allegiances of conflict actors are seldom absolute.