The 2012 US Presidential and Congressional election is occurring at a time of profound uncertainty inside and outside the United States.

Within the US, fierce partisan competition is complicating America's emergence from its most severe economic recession since the 1930s. The country's changing demographic profile adds a further domestic element of uncertainty. Internationally, the elections coincide with an accelerating shift in global economic gravity from West to East, with the emergence of major new regional powers and the continuing weakness of America’s key European allies and Japan. The US must also tackle an increasingly unstable Middle East accompanied by structural adjustments in global energy markets. How the next US administration adapts to these and a host of other international challenges will be central not only to its own prosperity and security, but also, given its continuing global economic and political power, to that of countries and societies across the world.

Project

2012-13 will witness an enormous number of analyses and reports by US institutions and media concerning the future of US foreign and domestic policy, targeted principally at US public and policy-making audiences. Using its international reputation for informed and independent analysis, this project will take a different approach. It will assess the likely trajectories of US international policy following the 2012 election from an external perspective; analysing the implications for the non-American community and helping them to understand how a new president and his policies will affect them. In so doing, it will offer audiences around the world, from Europe to Asia, a resource that will help them assess the policies presented during the campaign and challenge misperceptions that might damage US external relations once the new administration takes power.

Starting in Spring 2012, a series of short analyses will consider a major foreign policy issue, explain the background, the relative positions of the Republican and Democratic candidates, and the international implications of each. The Election Notes will provide independent analysis not just of what the candidates say, but draw upon an understanding of their history in office, if relevant, and their domestic and foreign policy team to provide a deeper and more rounded assessment of their likely approach to major foreign policy issues.

The US Election Notes series is made possible through the support of the Stavros Niarchos Foundation.

Election Notes

US Election Note: China Policy after 2012
Xenia Dormandy, May 2012 

Contact

For more information about this project, or to join the mailing list, please contact Xenia Dormandy.