The impact of the eruption of Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajokull calls into question our level of preparedness in response to 'low probability, high consequence' events.

The impact highlights the nature of globalisation and interdependencies among states and peoples, and brings to the fore issues such as the following:

• The challenge of developing evidence-based policies when the necessary technical and scientific information is not available, is unreliable, or is unknown;
• The difficulty of effectively communicating precautionary principles based on risk scenarios in order to maximize public understanding and trust in a highly dynamic and increasingly complex media environment;
• The vulnerability of critical infrastructure and production systems to global threats, and the resulting knock-on effects on global trade;
• The problems of identifying and implementing governance mechanisms to which to delegate assessment and management of large-scale transnational policy response across different national jurisdictions.

Enhancing Preparation for and Management of Global Threats

Project Aims

At this critical juncture, it is imperative to answer the following question: What can we learn from analysis and extension of this episode that is applicable to other types of global threats? Poorly handled crises diminish public willingness to take future 'low-probability/high-consequence' events seriously, weaken public trust in institutions, and confuse the public in terms of what science can and can't predict, know, and do. Will this the volcano incident make the next crisis harder to manage?

To enhance our preparedness and effectiveness in facing a variety of global threats such as pandemics, water scarcity, nuclear proliferation, climate change and Middle East conflict, Chatham House conducted analysis on the impacts of the events surrounding the volcanic eruption in April 2010 to extract key lessons. Through a combination of workshops and dissemination briefings the project aims to challenge prevailing risk assessment assumptions, explore effects and interactions in risk management and communication, and provide concrete recommendation. The findings can be found in the report, Preparing for High-impact, Low-probability Events: Lessons from Eyjafjallajökull

This project is funded by the Skoll Foundation.

Report 

Preparing for High-impact, Low-probability Events: Lessons from Eyjafjallajökull
Chatham House Report
Bernice Lee and Felix Preston, with Gemma Green, January 2012

This report argues that despite considerable efforts to improve scientific understanding and reform risk management approaches, governments and businesses remain insufficiently prepared to confront HILP crises and effectively manage their economic, social, political and humanitarian consequences.

Further Information

For more information on this project please contact:
Gemma Green, Programme Manager, Energy, Environment and Development Programme
T: +44 (0) 207 957 5711