The focus of this project is the politics and security in the Black Sea region. The commitment made at NATO's Bucharest Summit for NATO membership to Ukraine and Georgia was widely thought to change the dynamics of the Black Sea region whether NATO honoured the commitment or not.

The Russia-Georgia conflict vindicated this forecast earlier but far more destructively than most had predicted. In spring 2008, hopes were expressed that the Bucharest declaration would diminish pressure on NATO, enhance the confidence of Ukraine and Georgia, reign in the ambitions as well as the apprehensions of Russia, and establish a measured and consensual approach to the next stage of enlargement. These hopes have been dashed.

Concerns over Nagorno-Karabakh, Crimea, and the scheduled withdrawal of Russia's Black Sea Fleet have been amplified. The gap between NATO's principles, commitments and collective capacity has been starkly exposed and the value of US support brought into question. Nevertheless, it is far from clear that Russia will emerge as the ultimate beneficiary of these events. The conflict is stimulating reassessment of Russia's methods, means and intentions. Despite division and disorientation, neither NATO nor the EU display any inclination to accept Russia's claim of 'privileged interests' nor write off their own interests in Ukraine, the South Caucasus or the Black Sea region.

The project will examine the following key issues:

• The interests and aspirations of the region's post-Communist states (including the non-littoral BSEC members, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Moldova);
• The future of Georgia;
• The implications of South Ossetia's and Abkhazia's 'independence' on the region's other territorial conflicts;
• Sources of cohesion, division and vulnerability in post-Communist states still limited in their autonomy and capacity;
• The evolution of Russia's objectives and the tools and techniques of its influence;
• Implications for NATO policy and for its highly institutionalised presence in Ukraine and Georgia;
• The future of Georgia's armed forces and of defence and security sector reforms in Ukraine;
• The growing security profile of the EU (security sector reform; EUBAM, 'Black Sea Synergy') and its possible reassessment of membership perspectives for Moldova and Ukraine;
• The future relevance and efficacy of other institutional actors: e.g. BSEC, OSCE, GUAM.

Publications

The Mortgaging of Ukraine's Independence
Briefing Paper
James Sherr, August 2010

Ukraine's Elections: Watershed or New Stalemate?
Programme Paper
James Sherr, February 2010

Ukraine: Democratic Dangers
The World Today
James Sherr, January 2010

Energy Conflicts in Europe and Eurasia: Clogging the Hubb
The World Today
Louis Skyner, January 2010

Gas for the Nabucco Pipeline: Energy Aria
The World Today, January 2010
Alexandros Petersen

The EU as a Conflict Manager? The Case of Georgia and its Implications
International Affairs
Richard Whitman and Stefan Wolff, January 2010

Turkey, Russia and the Caucasus: Common and Diverging Interests
Briefing Paper
Gareth Winrow, November 2009

Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Energy: Final Warning
The World Today
James Sherr, February 2009

Events

6 September 2010
Ukraine's Foreign Policy Under the New Government
HE Kostyantyn Gryshchenko, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ukraine

22 April 2010
Georgia's New Strategic Approach to Conflict Resolution

16 January 2009
The Black Sea Region: New Conditions, Enduring Interests (co-sponsored by the Titelescu Foundation in Bucharest)

15 December 2008
Whither Georgia: the Impact of Russian Actions since August 2008 (co-sponsored by the FCO)

Further information

For more information about this project contact:

Alex Nice, Programme Coordinator
Tel: +44 (0)20 7314 3627