http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183471 This event will take place against the backdrop of renewed concerns about the eurozone, and the latest IMF forecasts of a weak and fragile recovery in most advanced economies, and significant downside risks for the global economy. Discussions will concentrate on policies needed to improve the outlook and to increase the robustness of the recovery. This event will be held under the Chatham House Rule. Attendance is by invitation only. More about Chatham House International Roundtables. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183471 Wed, 23 May 2012 17:18:37 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183469 The speaker will discuss Chinese diplomacy from a Japanese perspective.For more information please contact the Asia Programme http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183469 Wed, 23 May 2012 16:26:30 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183467 Despite near-universal condemnation of the use of children in armed forces, and widespread ratification of the 1989 Convention on the Rights of the Child and its 2002 Optional Protocol on the involvement of children in armed conflict, children continue to be used in government and proxy armed forces around the world. As part of wider discussion on prevention mechanisms and best practice for prevention of recruitment and use of children in armed forces, Isabelle Guitard will present and discuss the findings of Child Soldiers International’s report Better than Cure: Preventing the recruitment and use of children in the Chadian national army. Discussants will expand on further international cases of recruitment, established preventive mechanisms and international, institutional and governmental approaches to this issue. Participants will then be invited to discuss the preventive agenda and paths towards its promotion. Attendance at this event is by invitation only. For more information please contact Zoe Pelter. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183467 Wed, 23 May 2012 15:52:15 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183465 As Europe’s economic turmoil continues, is public support for the European project itself the next victim of the euro crisis? In light of Pew’s latest Global Attitudes study, Bruce Stokes will present new research that analyses citizens’ opinions on how institutions have handled the crisis in eight European countries. Do Europeans still support economic integration, the EU, the ECB and the euro? What do Europeans say about austerity, bailouts and Brussels’ impending oversight of national budgets? This event will examine European public opinion on these issues and the implications for national governments, EU institutions and the possible solutions to the crisis. For more information please contact the Europe Programme. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183465 Wed, 23 May 2012 15:38:52 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183463 Turkey’s influence in the Horn of Africa, and especially in Somalia, has grown. This expert roundtable will explore where the Horn of Africa fits into Turkish foreign policy objectives and identify how Turkish engagement fits with the interests of leaders in the Horn region. Focus will be placed on the nature of Turkey’s humanitarian assistance, business relations, educational provision and political engagement, and speakers will look critically at Turkey’s capacity to deliver as much as is promised. This meeting is being co-organised by Chatham House’s Africa Programme and Europe Programme. Attendance at this event is by invitation only. For more information please contact Ahmed Soliman http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183463 Wed, 23 May 2012 15:19:19 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183461 Registration and reception is from 08:30. Attendees must be seated by 08:55, and doors will close at 09:00. We can only accept individuals who register in advance, and seats will be available on a first-come first-served basis. Registration for this event will close at 16:00 on Thursday 24 May. This invitation is non-transferrable and members are not permitted to bring guests to this event. Journalists wishing to attend should register via the Press Office. This event will be held on the record. Members having trouble logging in can can register by emailing the Members Events Team. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183461 Wed, 23 May 2012 15:16:29 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183453 Members Events Manager Sara Shah looks forward to the events in June 2012.    Subscribe to the Chatham House Podcast in iTunes | via RSS          Subscribe to Chatham House event audio in iTunes | via RSS http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183453 Wed, 23 May 2012 11:48:48 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183451 Technological change is having a profound impact globally, but perhaps the greatest potential for rapid transformative change lies in large parts of Africa. Whether in the field of computing, signal transmission, drug production, agricultural science or engineering, the speed of development is transforming the political context and choices for decision-makers. Yet little policy discussion appears to take place as to what this means in practice. At this event a panel of experts will discuss the change that is underway across much of Africa and where this may lead in the coming years. Registration and coffee reception from 10:00. For more information please contact Tighisti Amare. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183451 Wed, 23 May 2012 11:05:04 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/news/view/183449 Despite its gigantic production capacity and trade links with the rest of the world, China’s financial sector lacks depth and has little connectivity with the international financial system. A new report, Shifting Capital: The Rise of Financial Centres in Greater China, argues that China needs to develop a deeper and more diversified financial sector that reflects the size and the international integration of its real economy to ensure the efficient allocation of capital. Yet building efficient financial systems in China and modern financial centres in Greater China will be riddled with challenges and obstacles. The report focuses on the steps that China is taking to reform its financial services sector through the incremental development of financial centres in the Greater China region. The report takes a broad regional approach, looking at four key international financial centres (IFCs), namely Shanghai, Taipei, Shenzhen and Hong Kong. The development of these four IFCs provides a picture of the complex evolution of China’s financial reform, which is a policy-driven process where political considerations directly interact with market forces. If all goes to plan, China will eventually emerge on the international scene as a major financial power and the issuer of one of the key reserve currencies within a multi-currency international system. This will correct the fundamental problem that currently afflicts the international economic and monetary system – where the world’s second largest economy and the first exporter is managing its exchange rate, resulting in a large current account surplus and a very large accumulation of foreign reserves. One of the report’s authors, Paola Subacchi, says: ‘China’s financial integration will trigger fundamental changes in the global economy in the coming decades. What China is doing is critically important. It is also historically unprecedented. China has no roadmap or past experience to rely on. Indeed it is the first emerging country to seek a comprehensive reform and expansion of its financial services sector and to establish a truly international currency.’ Notes to Editors Read the report's key Policy Recommendations. Read Shifting Capital: The Rise of Financial Centres in Greater China, by Paola Subacchi, Helena Huang, Alberta Molajoni and Richard Varghese. To arrange an interview please contact the Press Office. http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/news/view/183449 Wed, 23 May 2012 10:24:24 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/news/view/183447 Egypt’s new politicians need to develop and articulate clear blueprints for the country’s economic policy, as a persistent failure to address the economic aspects of popular demands could ultimately lead to a second, angrier and hungrier revolution. Military figures need to be aware that future economic development will depend not only on security, but on transparency and accountability. In ‘Bread, Dignity and Social Justice': The Political Economy of Egypt’s Transition, a new paper published by Chatham House, Jane Kinninmont argues that Egypt’s ability to build confidence among local and foreign investors will depend on the progress of a clearly defined political transition. Uncertainty over the intentions of the military council could weigh on investor confidence and potentially generate domestic tensions that might further weaken the economy and lead to unrest. Predictably, the uncertainty created by the ongoing political transition has deterred investment and depressed growth. Yet Egypt has significant economic resources. With a population of 85 million, Egypt has a relatively diversified economy in comparison with other Arab countries and constitutes a market that international investors in the Middle East or Africa will not ignore. In addition, women’s employment is relatively high for the Arab world. In the last seven years of the Mubarak regime, the government had notable successes in attracting fresh inflows in foreign investment. However, the country has continued to struggle with extensive poverty, chronic unemployment and economic inequality. State services are in such poor shape that it is clear to all political parties that education and healthcare need more investment. The country’s infrastructure, housing and social services range from being in a state of strain to one of near-collapse. There is also hearsay and rumour in the economic debate, and a severe shortage of reliable and timely economic data. There are wildly different estimates of how much of the economy is owned by the military, ranging from 10% to a less plausible 40%. The military is highly suspicious of foreign debt as a possible threat to sovereignty, and is likely to have been the main source of objections to the proposed International Monetary Fund loan in 2011. Above all, the military seeks ‘stability’, meaning both that it will see protests and strikes as economically and politically disruptive, and that it will wish to avoid reforms that might challenge its existing privileges – such as any attempt to scrutinize its budgets. While political unrest has increased Egypt’s already substantial economic challenges, and has alarmed some investors, the current period of political change presents an opportunity to build a stronger, more inclusive and politically legitimate economy in the medium to long term. Notes to Editors Read ‘Bread, Dignity and Social Justice': The Political Economy of Egypt’s TransitionJane Kinninmont is Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/news/view/183447 Wed, 23 May 2012 10:19:10 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183443 This is a summary of an event held on 30 April 2012 at Chatham House. The event marked the launch of the Zimbabwe Human Rights NGO Forum's report, Transitional Justice Outreach to the Diaspora, which aims to provide a platform for the Zimbabwean diaspora to take part in addressing the transitional justice question in Zimbabwe. Event details. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183443 Tue, 22 May 2012 17:10:46 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183439 This is a transcript of a speech made by Professor Victor Bulmer-Thomas, Emeritus Professor at London University, on 16 May 2012 at Chatham House. Professor Bulmer-Thomas discussed regional institution building in the Caribbean, obstacles to further integration, and the pressures faced by countries in the region from foreign governments, multinational corporations and organized crime. Event details. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183439 Tue, 22 May 2012 16:29:45 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183433 Joseph Stiglitz will argue that, with the richest 1% having access to the best healthcare, education and housing, high-levels of income disparity are to the detriment of not only the other 99%, but the economic health of countries as a whole. He will point to a number of factors which explain extreme levels of inequality – inefficient and unstable markets, the failure of political systems to correct the shortcomings of these markets, and the fundamental imbalances in current political and economic systems – and propose what can be done to address them.For more information about this event, please contact the Members Events Team. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183433 Tue, 22 May 2012 15:44:37 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183427 The UNDP’s recently released report, ‘Arab Development Challenges: Towards the Developmental State in the Arab Region,’ argues that the relationship between state and citizen in the Arab region has irrevocably changed in the wake of the Arab spring. Demands for dignity, social justice and freedom highlight the urgent need to address economic challenges in tandem with political reforms. Following a presentation from the authors of the report, this roundtable discussion will focus on identifying possible policy recommendations drawn from the findings of this research. For more information please contact Helen Twist. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183427 Tue, 22 May 2012 12:10:00 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183421 This is a summary of an International Roundtable held in New York in April 2012.Against a background of renewed concerns about the eurozone, and IMF forecasts for a weak recovery in most advanced economies and significant downside risks for the global economy, discussion focused on policies needed to improve the outlook and increase the robustness of recovery. Are the crisis resolution measures implemented to date enough to lift the eurozone out of crisis? What is the impact on the global economy of the policies that systemically important countries have put in place to stem the crisis? What are the long term prospects for fiscal sustainability in the developed world? Will China’s moves to internationalize its currency and reform its financial sector help to rebalance the global economy If so, when? How should the G20’s role in co-ordinating international policy develop? Chatham House International Roundtables >> http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183421 Mon, 21 May 2012 17:13:21 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183415 This is a summary of discussions that took place at a roundtable discussion held in February 2012 at the Gulf Centre for Policy Studies at the Gulf University of Science and Technology in Kuwait City. Part of Chatham House’s Future Trends in the GCC research project, the discussion brought together a group of academics, civil society representatives, entrepreneurs, journalists and bloggers from different GCC countries to discuss some of the key trends shaping GCC politics, with a focus on trends in identity politics and the politics of sectarianism in the GCC. Key points that emerged from the meeting included:  National identity is still being defined and contested in the GCC states, most of which are less than five decades old.   Participants felt there is inadequate representation of, or attention to, the youth or to women. It was suggested that new ways need to be found to represent these less traditional forces in societies and institutions.  The GCC has experienced a surge in sectarian tensions since early 2011 as a result of the interplay between the Bahraini uprising and the increasing Saudi–Iranian tensions. These sectarian tensions were seen as being basically a political phenomenon based on competition for power and resources.  Nonetheless, it was suggested that Bahrainis and other GCC nationals also need to ask themselves about the social factors that allowed these tensions to grow; many still deny the previous existence of sectarianism, portraying it as solely a government creation or a foreign import. Neither of these presents the full picture.  It was said that civil society groups could play an important role in addressing the causes of sectarian tensions, promoting dialogue and calling for specific policies to address the spatial, economic, social and labour-market segregation that sometimes divides different religious and ethnic groups in the GCC.  Further Resources Kuwait Study Group: The Experience of Parliamentary Politics in the GCC Workshop Summary, February 2012 http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183415 Mon, 21 May 2012 12:09:22 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183411 This is a summary of discussions that took place at a roundtable discussion held in February 2012 at the Gulf Centre for Policy Studies at the Gulf University of Science and Technology in Kuwait City. Part of Chatham House’s Future Trends in the GCC research project, the discussion brought together a group of academics, civil society representatives, entrepreneurs, journalists and bloggers from different GCC countries to discuss some of the key trends shaping GCC politics, with a focus on parliamentary politics, political engagement and youth movements. Key points that emerged from the discussions, in the views of participants, included: The concept of citizenship will eventually need to be renegotiated across the GCC states as a result of generational and economic changes.   Reforming early and pre-emptively will be to states' long-term advantage. In the GCC, there has often been a tendency to delay political reforms at times of economic plenty – yet the cost of reforms will be greater if they are delayed until times of hardship.   As society is changing, there are important constituencies such as young people, women, naturalized citizens and expatriate workers who lack meaningful representation.  Governments and societies need to find ways for these groups to be represented, possibly through more empowered parliaments, so they can be consulted and can have peaceful, accepted means to voice their concerns.  Some GCC states are facing economic pressures for change earlier than others. Part of the explanation for the uprisings in Bahrain and Oman is that these states have to make the transition to post-rentier economies ahead of others. Further Resources Kuwait Study Group: Identity, Citizenship and Sectarianism in the GCC Workshop Summary, February 2012  http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183411 Mon, 21 May 2012 11:57:30 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183397 An insightful discussion into the cross-sectorial approach to biosecurity, between Research Director International Security Patricia Lewis and Global Health Associate Fellow Nigel Lightfoot, developed out of this day-long event at Chatham House.   Subscribe to the Chatham House Podcast in iTunes | via RSS          Subscribe to Chatham House event audio in iTunes | via RSS http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183397 Fri, 18 May 2012 16:26:36 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183395 This is a transcript of an event held on 15 May 2012 at Chatham House. Focuing on issues of democracy, legitimacy, accountability, solidarity and identity, the participants debated the prospects for the European Union in the context of the ongoing sovereign debt crisis. Event details and Q&A. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183395 Fri, 18 May 2012 15:08:29 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/183389 Egypt's economy has suffered short-term pain from the uncertainty over its political transition – but there's a chance for confidence to pick up after the presidential elections.  Since the uprising, inward investment and tourism revenues have fallen, growth has slowed, unemployment has risen and the fiscal deficit has widened.  But the fundamentals of Egypt's economy have not changed. The country has by far the largest population in the Middle East and is one of the Arab world's most diversified economies. It has oil and gas, world-class tourist attractions and a strategic trading location at the nexus of Europe, the Middle East and Africa. These assets explain why no major investors have pulled out of Egypt since January. There is a chance, though an uncertain one, that Egypt's economic prospects could be improved if the new regime proves to be less corrupt and more meritocratic. Of course, the country has deep-seated economic problems. Its demographics are a double-edged sword: the fast-growing, young population of 85m or more can be an engine of growth, but too many are stuck in poverty and unemployment, and state services and infrastructure have been unable to cope with the rising numbers. All the new presidential candidates are under pressure to promise to spread the country's wealth more evenly – and to create jobs. Whoever wins will face a difficult task. But the possibility of greater clarity over government policy may help to provide a more conducive environment for investment. Election Promises Point to Higher Spending For the most part, the leading candidates are saying fairly similar things about the economy. Policies remain fairly broad-brush at this stage – and, as is often the case in elections around the world, there are more promises to deliver growth and improve services than details about how these things will be achieved.  Overall, campaign rhetoric suggests public spending is likely to rise in the next year. It can be assumed that any new government will be wary of cutting public spending on salaries and consumer subsidies, and there is clear pressure to increase public spending on healthcare, education and infrastructure.  Of the candidates, Aboul Fotouh, an independent Islamist and doctor, aims to increase healthcare spending to 15% of the state budget, and education spending to 25%, by 2016; Amr Moussa has set the same targets with a vaguer timescale; while Ahmed Shafiq, a former air force commander with links to the military establishment, and Hamdeen Sabbahi, a leftist with a Nasserist background, both favour a health insurance scheme for all Egyptians. Housing is another key issue: Aboul Fotouh, Moussa   and Shafiq have promised programmes to redevelop Egypt's sprawling slums, while Mursi and Sabbahi both pledged new subsidised housing for the poor (and in Mursi's case, for newlyweds). Raising revenue will be harder. All the front runners agree about the need for a more progressive tax system. The Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party has highlighted the need to expand the tax base by legalising and licencing the many businesses that operate informally – but this is likely to be a long-term process, requiring reform of the labyrinthine Egyptian bureaucracy. Several candidates have mentioned the need to cut energy subsidies to industry, which may be a relatively easy win.  Question Marks over Gulf Aid Earlier this month Saudi Arabia deposited US$1bn with Egypt's central bank, to help shore up foreign exchange reserves, which have suffered from the downturn in tourism and inward investment. But this was over a year after the Saudi government first promised the money, and it came only after a delegation of Islamist politicians visited Riyadh to soothe Saudi concerns over street protests outside its embassy in Cairo (which were a response to Saudi Arabia's detention of an Egyptian human-rights lawyer). Saudi Arabia originally promised $4bn in aid to Egypt, but there is as yet no timescale for the delivery of the remaining US$3bn.  It is likely Riyadh will wait and see who the new president is before it makes further financial commitments. Given Saudi Arabia's close relations with former president Hosni Mubarak, its clear displeasure at the revolution, and its anxiety about the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood both regionally and in its own country, it is likely to favour a candidate with links to the previous regime, such as Amr Moussa or Ahmed Shafiq.  Qatar, which was always more enthusiastic about Egypt's political changes, and far more comfortable with the regional rise of the Muslim Brotherhood, has focused more on private-sector investment, especially in infrastructure. Last May, it signed a deal to develop two new ports in Egypt. This month, QInvest, a Qatari state-backed investment bank, announced it would set up a new regional investment bank as a joint venture with EFG-Hermes, Egypt's largest investment bank, and Qatar Petroleum said it was in serious talks about investing in an Egyptian oil-refinery project – sending signals that Qatar has the appetite to engage in Egypt regardless of who the next president might be. This is particularly important given the growing crisis in the Eurozone, normally Egypt's main economic partner. European promises of aid have been slow to reach Egypt. European donors and investors are also concerned that the country has not yet reached agreement on a much-discussed IMF deal. Egypt's gripes with the IMF reflect the IMF's historical baggage in Egypt, where there is cross-party political wariness of being beholden to an institution that lavished praise on the former government. Western investors nonetheless – perhaps unfairly – see the IMF deal as an important stamp of approval that Egypt still lacks. If it is finally agreed under a new president, this would give further encouragement for investors to go back into one of the largest economies in the Arab world. If you would like to comment on this article, please contact Chatham House Feedback  Further Resources 'Bread, Dignity and Social Justice': The Political Economy of Egypt's TransitionBriefing PaperJane Kinninmont, April 2012 More on Egypt >> http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/183389 Fri, 18 May 2012 13:05:34 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183387 The Agenda Africa Forum 2012 will look at some of the key energy, natural resources and infrastructure opportunities emerging in Angola and Mozambique, and explore the countries' current and prospective regulatory and investment frameworks. It will also assess the similarities and differences businesses face in the two countries. This event is organized by the Africa Programme in association with Iberian Lawyer. For more information please contact Tighisti Amare. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183387 Fri, 18 May 2012 12:13:22 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/183385 On 23 May, Egyptians head to the polls to elect the first president of the post-Mubarak era. Whilst this is likely to be the freest election in Egyptian history, the process faces a number of constraints. Accusations abound that the ruling military council (SCAF) has used indirect pressure on the levers of state – especially the courts – to limit the choice of candidates on offer. The most significant activities have taken place in the Supreme Presidential Elections Commission (SPEC), a judicial body whose independence from the junta remains tenuous at best. In April, the SPEC provoked consternation by its decision to disqualify ten candidates, including three front-runners from the race. Although disqualifications were based on previous legal rulings, the Muslim Brotherhood's preferred candidate, Khairat al-Shater, had particular reason to feel aggrieved: his disqualification was based on Mubarak-era criminal convictions which were widely believed to be politically motivated. Skeptics argue the official reasoning belies a different motivation. After a year of pragmatic political alignment with their Islamist counterparts, the junta has more recently been at odds with the Brotherhood over the role of parliament, the issue of whether the cabinet should be changed to reflect the election results, and over who is entitled to write the new constitution. With this in mind, the SCAF may well have favoured the removal of a candidate whose selection would only cement the increasing power of a Brotherhood that already holds 47% of seats in parliament. Thanks to a series of constitutional amendments, for Shater and others the SPEC's decision was final, and nullified months of hard work.  The Front-Runners Yet despite these apparent interventions, the election result is anything but a foregone conclusion. Opinion polls suggest that the lead continues to change as up to 54% of voters remain undecided. Buoyed by appearances on the region's first ever American-style television debate, the front-runners are former Arab League chief Amr Moussa and independent Islamist Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh. Assuming there is no late surge for old regime candidate of choice - former prime minister Ahmed Shafiq - then a Moussa presidency would seem preferable in the eyes of the military. Amr Moussa, the self-styled candidate of experience served as foreign minister under President Mubarak, making him more of a known quantity than his Islamist and leftist rivals. Appealing to the growing constituency who fear continuing political uncertainty, he sticks to a script peppered with the old regime's language of stability. In pronouncements on bloody clashes between the military and street demonstrators, he avoids direct criticism of the former whilst branding the latter ‘anarchists'. His approach to establishing a civilian state is likely to be cautious and piecemeal. Whilst he pledges that the armed forces will continue to play a role in industrial production, he argues that the political dimension of civil-military relations is too delicate a subject to be discussed in public.  Aboul Fotouh, on the other hand, represents more of an enigma for the military. The independent Islamist with revolutionary credentials – he joined demonstrators outside the Supreme Court on the day the uprising began in January 2011 and later helped to set up field hospitals for injured demonstrators – attracts a broad coalition of support that includes both the ultra-conservative Al Nour Party and liberal activist Wael Ghonim. His cross-ideological appeal makes him a consensus candidate for many who seek a move away from a politics increasingly polarized between Islamist and liberal forces. It is difficult to predict how Aboul Fotouh's presidency would look in practice and the reach of his authority would depend on a range of external constraints. He is likely, however, to present more of a challenge to the military than Moussa, particularly given campaign promises to replace upper echelons of the military with younger blood. This scenario would be particularly worrying for a junta that reportedly faces rising internal dissent on account of low wages and a rigid command structure. A Step Forward The new president's constitutional role has yet to be determined, but it is safe to assume they will wield significant power. Ability to exercise this, however, will always be constrained by the individual's ability to cooperate with forces in parliament, the street, and the international community. But in a contest of uncertainties, one point remains assured: Egypt's military commanders will be nervously awaiting the result on 21 June. Although the election of a new president will not signal a definitive break from Egypt's military past, it has the potential to hasten this trend in the right direction. If you would like to comment on this article, please contact Chatham House Feedback  More on Egypt >> http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/183385 Fri, 18 May 2012 10:35:43 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183383 This is a transcript of a speech made by His Excellency Ali Bongo Ondimba, President of the Gabonese Republic, on 17 May 2012 at Chatham House. In his speech the President discussed his ambitions for Gabon, including on foreign investment, climate change and biodiversity. A summary of the Q&A session is also included. Event details. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183383 Thu, 17 May 2012 17:03:20 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/183379 The relationship between France and Germany is the barometer of the political health of Europe.Even in a European Union of 27 member states, and which has expanded far beyond the original six countries founding the union, Franco-German relations are the drivers of Europe's politics. This means that changes in the leadership of either country matter - and the personal chemistry between the German chancellor and the French president have wider ramifications for Europe.The election of Francois Hollande as the new French president has created an uncertainty in the relationship between Europe's two leading states. Hollande is a socialist elected on a platform of opposition to the European Union austerity and euro stabilization program.The problem for Franco-German relations is that the program was agreed by Hollande's predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy with the German Chancellor Angela Merkel. This creates a political dislocation at the heart of the EU, just as the euro is under renewed pressure with the scenario of a Greek exit from the currency becoming all too possible.Can this Franco-German rift be mended?Both leaders will do their best to appear publicly in agreement and the first meeting between the two leaders this week was all smiles. But both leaders have limited room for maneuver. The French public voted decisively against a program of austerity in electing Hollande -- and France faces elections to its National Assembly next month. The president will be seeking a working majority for his Socialist party. Now will not be a moment for Hollande to publicly backtrack.Angela Merkel faces her own domestic political difficulties.The German people are hostile to expanded support for eurozone economies in difficulty, such as Greece and Spain, and there is a possible bailout for Spain looming. In state elections in Germany at the weekend Merkel's party suffered an electoral setback, losing control of Germany's most populous state to the opposition Social Democratic Party.The German public appears to dislike Merkel's austerity program at home but is also strongly resistant to supporting the economies of other states such as France, which are asking for Germany to take measures to stimulate the wider European economy. And a general election is on the horizon in Germany next year.The stakes for the European Union of a difficult Franco-German relationship are high.A credible plan to preserve the eurozone remains elusive, with France and Germany's agreement on a common course of action looking difficult to broker.The rescue of the eurozone is a political and economic challenge of a magnitude that the EU has not faced since its creation in the 1950s and neither Merkel nor Hollande look to be leaders who have the capacity for the bold leadership on European integration that their predecessors demonstrated across successive decades.Other European leaders from Europe's smaller states will be pressing them hard to demonstrate decisive leadership. In the absence of a strong British engagement with the EU, and Spain and Italy's leaders preoccupied with the precarious condition of their own economies, there are no other candidates for the leadership role in Europe.Merkel and Hollande are by default the only credible leadership team in Europe and their developing relationship carries the burden of Europe's future.Whether they are now able to move on from their 'first date' this week to build a successful political marriage is the key to the EU's capacity to navigate its way out of its current crisis.A dysfunctional relationship between the two leaders will see the EU's current crisis prolonged.If you would like to comment on this article, please contact Chatham House Feedback This article originally appeared on CNN.com.Further Resources:Greek Tipping Point on the HorizonCFR.org interview with Iain Begg, May 2012Chatham House Debate: Ever Closer Union? The Future of the European ProjectAudio and Transcript, May 2012    http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/183379 Thu, 17 May 2012 16:11:05 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183375 Following the protests after the parliamentary elections in December 2011, much attention was focused on the cracks in Putin’s system and the political opposition. While the situation has quieted down, the underlying problems remain. After his inauguration on 7 May, Putin will appoint a new government. The government is likely to face a number of key challenges in the short- to medium-term, and its approach to them will have repercussions for Russia’s relations with other countries. This event will look at the main issues on Russia’s domestic, economy and foreign policy agenda. Attendance at this event is by invitation only. For more information please contact Lubica Pollakova. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183375 Thu, 17 May 2012 13:54:27 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183373 This meeting, part of a series on international criminal law co-hosted by Doughty Street Chambers and Chatham House International Law Programme, will focus on legal developments in recent judgments and complementarity issues in the International Criminal Court (ICC).  The meeting will be followed by an open drinks reception from 19:30. This event is accredited for 1.5 CPD points. For more information please contact Alis Martin. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183373 Thu, 17 May 2012 13:32:20 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183371 Madeleine Rees will reflect on the role of international organisations and international law in responding to human trafficking and sexual exploitation in contemporary society. Among other questions, the speaker considers whether civil society can play a greater role. For more information please contact the International Law Programme. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183371 Thu, 17 May 2012 13:18:25 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183369 Professors Charles Garraway and Sean Watts will participate in a moderated discussion of the war crimes investigation practices of the United Kingdom and United States, highlighting and contrasting comparative reporting requirements as well as the extent of international influences in each system. For more information please contact the International Law Programme. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183369 Thu, 17 May 2012 13:08:52 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183367 With November’s US presidential election day approaching, the speakers will argue that the battle for votes will remain fierce right until the end, with the result likely to be a close one. Taking into account the latest polling data and voting trends, Ed Goeas and Celinda Lake, affiliated to the Republican and Democratic parties respectively, will assess the chances for both presidential candidates. The event will be followed by a reception at 19:00. If you would like to register for this event, please email the Members Events Team. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183367 Thu, 17 May 2012 11:05:36 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183365 Food insecurity, terrorism and piracy are just some of the threats to East Africa’s security. As a key regional player, Kenya plays a pivotal role in responding to and managing these threats. As the country approaches presidential elections in 2013, internal threats remain, with memories of the violence that surrounded Kenya’s last national election still fresh. Minister Saitoti will discuss his government’s efforts to tackle factors which could jeopardise the stability of Kenya and the region. For further information about this event, please contact the Members Events Team. Non-members and interested individuals should apply to Tighisti Amare. All non-member applications must be made by email. Only receipt of a confirmation email from Chatham House will allow entry for non-members to this event. Places are limited. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183365 Thu, 17 May 2012 10:46:21 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183357 This event will see the official launch of the Chatham House Report Shifting Capital: the Rise of Financial Centre’s in Greater China. The report assesses four financial centres – Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Taipei – and their rise as a potential reflection of greater financial integration of China into the world. Given the rapidly changing financial environment in the Greater China region, the report considers Beijing’s role as the political engine behind reform of China's domestic financial sector, and the on-going RMB internationalization strategy. For more information please contact Jamie Cirrito. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183357 Wed, 16 May 2012 17:39:20 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183355 In association with Free Word, Under 35s members (plus a guest) are invited to attend a special viewing of the exhibition Politics and Olympics: Ideas and Realities. This exhibition of stories, images and ideas explores the political and commercial history of the modern Olympics. The exhibition offers alternative perspectives on the Games, exploring the impact of political and commercial pressures on the ideals and values of the Olympic movement.   There will be an introductory drinks reception and an introduction by Martin Polley, Senior Lecturer in Sport at the University of Southampton.  Registration starts from 18.30. Please note the external location. This is an Under 35s Forum event. For more information please contact Sara Shah.   http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183355 Wed, 16 May 2012 16:50:50 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183353 With youth unemployment soaring in the EU, the panel will examine the long-term political and social effects. They will explore the gap between young people’s expectations and economic reality and discuss what can be done, both nationally and at a pan-European level, to reduce youth unemployment rates. The discussion will also address how the uneven impact of unemployment across the EU - where Germany's rate stands at around 8% and Spain's at around 50% - may affect the stability and sustainability of the European project. There will be a breakfast reception from 08.00. This is an Under 35s Forum event. For more information please contact the Members Events Team http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183353 Wed, 16 May 2012 15:00:49 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183351 The nature and extent of corruption in Russia are well known, but the effects of financial and constitutional abuse on economic growth, on society, and on political life are less well understood. With the old growth model no longer working well, the panel will discuss whether Russia can return to the strong economic growth it enjoyed between 1998 and 2008 without tackling corruption and the weak rule of law. They will explore what the tipping point for reform may be, where it may come from, and what Russia could become if it were able to achieve better rankings in global corruption indexes. For more information please contact the Members Events Team     http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183351 Wed, 16 May 2012 14:14:55 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183347 Jo Johnson MP. John Jungclaussen, London Correspondent, Die Zeit. Kalypso Nicolaïdis, Professor of International Relations, University of Oxford. Chair: John Peet, Europe Editor, The Economist   Subscribe to the Chatham House Podcast in iTunes | via RSS          Subscribe to Chatham House event audio in iTunes | via RSS http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183347 Wed, 16 May 2012 13:03:52 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/183345 Many observers were watching the Algerian national assembly elections of 10 May 2012 to see whether they would buck the regional trends of securing large majorities for Islamist parties. The results did confound expectations, above all those of the largest 3-party Islamist 'Green Alliance', which collectively gained only 59 out of a total 462 available seats. The lion’s share went to the established ruling party, the National Liberation Front (FLN) which doubled its presence in the assembly to 220 seats. Apart from the catastrophic elections of 1991, cancelled when nearly won by the now dissolved Islamic Salvation Front (FIS), the FLN has formed the backbone of Algerian parliamentary politics since 1962. Counting the Figures Why the Islamists did badly has less to do with political majorities than numbers, and the credibility of the numbers at stake. First in line is the frequently disputed percentage of voter participation, or, as is more usually discussed in Algeria, the level of voter abstention. In the last general elections of 2007, 65% of the eligible electorate failed to vote according to the official tally, a figure widely contested as being an underestimate, even before considering the high numbers of spoilt ballots in this and previous elections. Despite fears of widespread abstention this year, the opening up of the political establishment to new parties and a new political clientele might well account for the rise from 35% to an acceptable 42% participation on 10 May. It is still less than might have been hoped for to validate a process of genuine political reform that these elections were supposed to represent. In the event, it was the national electoral commission (CNSEL) that expressed its surprise when the Minister of Interior announced the turn-out to be 42.9% as early as the afternoon of 11 May, when a number of regions – including the capital Algiers – had still to return their results. Local media commentary has also highlighted regional and local variations that appear not to correspond to the level of voting observed in polling stations. As for previous ballots, the post-electoral analysis and objections are likely to continue, but redress is unlikely, not least since international approval has now been gained for the conduct of the election. In this respect, a second set of figures has caused consternation to the European Union observer mission, invited as part of a total of 500 international observers to witness Algeria's elections for the first time. Since 2007, the electoral roll has been updated and revised to include nearly 4 million new names out of a total electoral of 21 million. The EU delegation’s request to see the consolidated list was denied, amidst rumours that the figures had been artificially inflated. This was deemed by the EU as a negative in an otherwise well-conducted electoral process.  Third in line are persistent accusations of the government's fraudulent manipulation of the votes received by each party, whether engineered before or after the ballot. In advance of this year’s elections, the Algerian authorities made a number of assurances that the vote would be free and fair and devoid of the kind of gerrymandering of figures that - without openly admitting as much - they have engaged in in the past. Yet, Abdallah Djaballah, the leader of one of the more credible Islamist parties in the 'Green Alliance' which anticipated receiving 65 seats, has already cried foul at his party’s critically low showing at the polls. With only 7 seats, he has subsequently been calling on others to join him in a boycott of the newly elected National Popular Assembly (APN). A fourth figure that has attracted external attention is the 30% (145 members) of parliamentary seats that will now be filled by women, who, who under new quota requirements, were promoted in party lists. If the Islamists have been kept at bay and women promoted, the logic implied for external consumption is that this year’s elections constitute political progress. What has been less noticed, however, is the final and most revealing of officially-sanctioned figures, namely, that these elections took place in a country that in 2011 alone saw 11,000 separate incidents of worker’s and professional strikes, rural and urban protests, and most alarmingly of all, a continuing series of copy-cat self-immolations amongst the young, and largely unemployed. No Real Contest The numbers game apart, most Algerians know that the reforms instigated last year did not include according the APN any larger a role than it already enjoys, which is to rubber-stamp decisions already taken by Algeria’s presidency and associated power-brokers. With notable exceptions, those who do enter the APN are co-opted, well-paid and powerless to instigate change that represents the will of the electorate or responds to the needs of the wider Algerian population. This perhaps best explains the lack of electoral support for the Islamists, and indeed other long-standing opposition parties such as the Front of Socialist Forces (FFS). The very act of participating in the political charade of elections – which the FFS has refused to do for the past decade – is perceived as a sign of complicity in perpetuating the unrepresentative status quo. Haunted by the years of violence that followed on from the thwarted electoral victory of the FIS in 1991, most Algerians outside this game have so far found no alternative to expressing themselves except through fragmented and leaderless protests.  One number that may give pause for thought for the future, however, is the age of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. At 75 it is widely believed he will not be seeking a further mandate at the 2014 presidential elections. The consolidation of parliamentary power in the hands of the FLN is seen by many as a precursor to the governing regime’s grooming one of its own to be the natural successor to Bouteflika at the presidency. Yet machinations of this kind were precisely the precursor to both Tunisians and Egyptians acting in early 2011 to prevent the regimes they subsequently unseated from prolonging themselves indefinitely without consent. If you would like to comment on this article, please contact Chatham House Feedback  http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/183345 Wed, 16 May 2012 12:27:33 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183341 The Rio+20 UN conference will take place in June, two decades after the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. What will it take to make environmental sustainability a global reality? This event marks the publication of the special May 2012 issue of International Affairs on ‘Rio+20 and the global environment: reflections on theory and practice’. This event is being co-organised by Chatham House and the LSE Department of International Relations. Please note the external location. This event is free and open to all with no ticket required. Entry is on a first come, first served basis. For more information please contact c.easom@lse.ac.uk. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183341 Wed, 16 May 2012 11:17:46 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183333 This is a transcript of a speech made by Brigadier (Ret.) Julius Maada Bio, Sierra Leone People's Party (SLPP), on 10 May 2012 at Chatham House. The speaker, who will be running for the Presidency on behalf of the Sierra Leone People’s Party in November, discussed what policies he would like to see implemented in Sierra Leone. Event details. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183333 Tue, 15 May 2012 16:12:52 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183325 In a climate of declining budgets, a broader mission and a shift in emphasis to the Asia-Pacific region, General Odierno will argue that the coming decade will be a vital period of transition for the US Army. He will discuss the future of the US Army and how the strategic concepts of prevent, shape and win will be important to its continued success through this time of change. LIVE STREAM: This event will be live streamed for members only. The live stream will be made available here at 13:00 BST on Wednesday 6 June. ASK A QUESTION: Send questions for the speaker by email to questions@chathamhouse.org or using #askCH on Twitter. A selection will be put to him at the event. For more information, please contact the Members Events Team http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183325 Tue, 15 May 2012 13:55:22 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/research/global-health-security/current-projects/biosecurity In recent years there has been increased recognition of the differences in standards of biomaterial security in different areas of the world. A number of international biological threat reduction programmes and health organisations such as the World Health Organisation have made significant efforts to address existing imbalances and build capacity in more high areas. However, in many developing countries, the global health protection burden can outweigh the ability of available resources to operate to the technically sophisticated standards required in most of the more developed countries.This stream of research studies explores these issues further, examining new approaches which represents both good-value for the donor community and leave a lasting and affordable local solution to the challenge of effective disease surveillance, diagnosis, biosafety, and biosecurity in resource-poor environments.  http://www.chathamhouse.org/research/global-health-security/current-projects/biosecurity Mon, 14 May 2012 16:59:10 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183311 This is a transcript of a speech made by Ian Bremmer, President and Co-founder of Eurasia Group, on 10 May 2012 at Chatham House. Mr Bremmer argued that the world faces a lack of global leadership at a time when it is needed the most, and explored the implications of this for global governance and the ability of states to tackle shared problems. Event details and Q&A.   http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183311 Mon, 14 May 2012 16:48:11 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/research/global-health-security/current-projects/towards-universal-coverage Identifying Sustainable Methods for Improving Global Health Security and Access to Health Care In 2000 the World Health Organization (WHO) established a high profile Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, chaired by Professor Jeffrey Sachs. The central thesis of its report, published in 2001, was that investing in health is good for economic development.  The central recommendation therefore called for a very large increase in funding for health by low-income countries themselves, supported by a massive leap in development assistance, to scale up their existing health services and provide access for all to essential health interventions. Since 2001 there has indeed been a rapid expansion in both development assistance and in spending on health by low-income countries, although nothing like on the scale recommended by the Commission.   The global economic climate today is, of course, vastly different to a decade ago. And the balance of economic power is changing. While the developed economies are mired in economic difficulties, the rapidly growing economies of Asia and Latin America are also where most poor people in need of healthcare live. In these circumstances, the ways health care is funded and the sustainability of funding mechanisms need urgently to be re-examined – along with the viability of current models of development assistance. Moreover, particularly in the last decade, the governance structure in global health has become excessively complex as a result of the establishment of new funding institutions and new forms of public-private partnerships.  This has raised important questions regarding the role of different agencies and, in particular, the proper role of WHO in relation to the international system as it has evolved since WHO was founded over 60 years ago.    In December 2011, the Centre on Global Health Security held a major international conference to mark the tenth anniversary of the publication of the Commission’s report, using the original recommendations of the commission as a vehicle for considering what countries and donors need to do in the changed circumstances of today. The Centre has now established two high-level working groups comprising some of the leading actors in the field of global health. The groups will focus on WHO and the international system, and on sustainable financing mechanisms. Their objective will be to identify sustainable methods for improving global health security and access to health care and to influence international and national policy makers.  http://www.chathamhouse.org/research/global-health-security/current-projects/towards-universal-coverage Mon, 14 May 2012 16:22:27 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183299 This event will focus on the way forward in drugs and organized crime policy. Participants will determine which lessons from particular countries and regions might be applied in others, and investigate alternative policy scenarios building on a cross-sectoral approach. Among the questions it will ask are: What can we learn from the experiences of Colombia, Afghanistan, Sweden, the Netherlands, West Africa and Central Asia? What are the advantages and limits of a comparative approach? What common threads can be identified between local dynamics and universal principles? How can international cooperation be improved to tackle this global challenge? In order to go beyond polarizing and emotive debates, what might happen across the spectrum under different policy scenarios and what would need to be taken into consideration when designing and implementing alternative policies? For more information please contact the International Security Programme. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183299 Mon, 14 May 2012 14:12:03 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/research/global-health-security/current-projects/international-affairs-governance-and-health This area focuses on the intersection of health, governance and international affairs in the context of the wider global political landscape.This involves examining the shape and nature of global health governance itself and proposing solutions. Included are issues such as shifts in power and influence and the challenges and opportunities presented by an increasingly crowded global health field, as well as the challenges around the provision of health services in specific environments such as post-conflict and fragile states. This research stream also examines to what extent and how efforts to improve global health serve foreign policy interests such as security and economic growth.Projects:Towards Universal Coverage: Identifying Sustainable Methods for Improving Global Health Security and Access to Health CareThe Centre has established two high-level working groups comprising some of the leading actors in the field of global health, to identify sustainable methods for improving global health security and access to health care and to influence international and national policy makers.  Biosecurity Research in this area will examine the current state of biomaterial security in the developing world and explore the options available to increase the effectiveness of programmes while meeting effective standards Health System Reconstruction in Post-Conflict StatesIn conjunction with the International Security Programme, this project seeks to broaden understanding and awareness of the challenges attached to health care delivery in conflict and post-conflict situations. http://www.chathamhouse.org/research/global-health-security/current-projects/international-affairs-governance-and-health Mon, 14 May 2012 14:07:42 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/research/global-health-security/current-projects/access-health-related-products-technologies-and-ser Research in this area focuses on developing more sustainable and equitable access to the many products, technologies and services needed to protect and promote health. One of the most difficult issues in contemporary global health politics involves increasing sustainable access to medicines, vaccines and other health-related products and technologies through development assistance, and the ethics associated with failure to sustain access once it has been obtained. Examples include the ongoing controversies around sustaining access to HIV drugs, and around equitable access to influenza vaccines, and to products for preventing or managing non-communicable diseases such as heart disease, diabetes and cancer. Access to Medicine and VaccinesThis research aims to contribute to the development of proposals for more sustainable mechanisms for the provision of vaccines, medicines and other public health goods to developing countries.  Counterfeit Medicines Research in the area of counterfeit medicines aims to contribute to the challenge of producing accurate and useful definitions of the problem and products in question. http://www.chathamhouse.org/research/global-health-security/current-projects/access-health-related-products-technologies-and-ser Mon, 14 May 2012 13:51:01 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/research/global-health-security/current-projects/disease-threats-and-determinants-transcend-borders Research in this area aims to develop policy options for reducing the collective vulnerability to health threats by addressing their politically and economically sensitive determinants.It also examines the political and economic effects of disease threats and efforts to combat them.These health threats involve the emergence and spread of communicable and non-communicable diseases. The trade and other economic fallout from events such as the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and H5N1 Avian Influenza outbreaks clearly illustrate their effects on a wide variety of issues beyond health, as well as how decisions in other sectors affect health. At the same time, non-communicable diseases are becoming an increasingly important global health problem, with many of the same implications beyond health, which heightens the need to include them as disease threats of international importance.Projects:Climate Change and its Impact on HealthResearch in this area aims to mitigate the negative impact of climate change on collective health security. Tensions between Human and Animal HealthThis project reviews current policies and collaboration between the human, animal and trade sectors to identify possible obstacles and solutions. Extraction Industry Infectious Disease Risk Assessment and Management – The IDRAM InitiativeThis project looks at the risks and management of infectious disease outbreaks in geographies of relevance to the international extraction industry. http://www.chathamhouse.org/research/global-health-security/current-projects/disease-threats-and-determinants-transcend-borders Mon, 14 May 2012 13:39:46 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/research/global-health-security/current-projects/extraction-industry-infectious-disease-risk-assessm Over the past several decades, nearly three-quarters of emerging infectious diseases have emerged from animal reservoirs – zoonotic diseases. Environmental and social changes that affect how people, pets, livestock, and wildlife interact can create conditions that favour the emergence infectious diseases, such as Lassa fever, Marburg fever, Ebola and SARS. Potential disease outbreaks present a significant public health threat; and economic, security and development concerns at a global level. Of particular focus is the surge in extraction industry operations – namely mining, petroleum and logging operations – into previously remote wildlife areas worldwide. By cutting down forest areas, building roads or rail lines, establishing temporary and permanent labour camps, and encouraging migration into previously uninhabited areas, the activities of the extraction industries fragment wildlife habitats and can unintentionally increase the interaction between wildlife and humans and therefore the risk of disease transmission. The Chatham House Centre on Global Health Security aims to leverage its position as a neutral, objective, and credible convener and platform for addressing an important emerging global health threat. It is expected that sectors and constituencies that don't often come together will identify a sense of common purpose and incentives for meaningful dialogue. In a carefully managed process, key stakeholders will be involved to build awareness and educate on the risks around infectious diseases associated with extraction industry activities. This is expected to lead to a policy discussion and framework for addressing and mitigating these risks at a global level. http://www.chathamhouse.org/research/global-health-security/current-projects/extraction-industry-infectious-disease-risk-assessm Mon, 14 May 2012 13:22:51 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183289 Mark Thirlwell will discuss the increase in Chinese-Australian economic ties and the resulting policy challenges. Attendance is by invitation only. For more information please contact Jamie Cirrito. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183289 Mon, 14 May 2012 12:02:25 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183287 This is a summary of a workshop held on 1 July 2011 at Chatham House. The event, held in conjunction with Istituto Affari Internazionali and with the support of Finmeccanica, considered how recent successes and failures in European security and defence policy can inform future policy and cooperation. Event details. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183287 Mon, 14 May 2012 12:00:44 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183283 This is a transcript of an event held on 4 May 2012 at Chatham House. The participants discussed the policy options open to the international community for addressing the threat the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) poses to the region of Central Africa. Event details. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183283 Mon, 14 May 2012 11:38:58 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/video-resource/183275 Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group takes a sprint round the world asking 'if not the US, who?' stopping off in the China, Russia, the EU and more. 10 May 2012 at Chatham House http://www.chathamhouse.org/video-resource/183275 Fri, 11 May 2012 13:51:02 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/video-resource/183273 http://www.chathamhouse.org/video-resource/183273 Fri, 11 May 2012 12:28:23 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183267 Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group takes a sprint round the world asking 'if not the US, who?' stopping off in the China, Russia, the EU and more. At Chatham House on 10 May 2012   Subscribe to the Chatham House Podcast in iTunes | via RSS          Subscribe to Chatham House event audio in iTunes | via RSS http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183267 Fri, 11 May 2012 10:54:50 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183261 This is a summary of an event held on 23 April 2012 at Chatham House. Anders Åslund, a Senior Associate at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, discussed Ukraine’s current economic situation. Event details. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183261 Thu, 10 May 2012 17:54:55 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183257  Download Executive Summary   Download Executive Summary in Chinese (下载中文版报告概要)  China needs to develop a deeper and more diversified financial sector that reflects the size and the international integration of its real economy to ensure the efficient allocation of capital. Yet building efficient financial systems in China and modern financial centres in Greater China will be riddled with challenges and obstacles.  The report focuses on the steps that China is taking to reform its financial services sector through the incremental development of financial centres in the Greater China region. The report takes a broad regional approach, looking at four key international financial centres (IFCs): Shanghai, Taipei, Shenzhen and Hong Kong.  The development of these four IFCs provides a picture of the complex evolution of China's financial reform, which is a policy-driven process where political considerations directly interact with market forces.   China's financial reform is a gradual process that will take time to deliver the expected results, but it is critical for the global economy that China manages its transition to a modern financial system.  http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183257 Thu, 10 May 2012 17:43:47 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183253 President Ali Bongo Ondimba will discuss his ambitions for Gabon, including on foreign investment, climate change and biodiversity. Since his election in October 2009, President Bongo has led a programme of reforms, economic diversification and private investment to sustainably develop forestry, agribusiness, tourism and environmental land-use rights. The aim is to assure sustainable growth around three pillars – services, industry and the green economy. Last year Gabon signed nearly $4bn of FDI agreements outside of the extractive industries sectors. For more information please contact Tighisti Amare. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183253 Thu, 10 May 2012 17:16:19 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183251 Following the presidential election in October 2011, many of Kyrgyzstan’s old problems returned to the fore. Much needed economic development is complicated by continuing inter-ethnic tensions as well as difficult relations with other states in the region. Former president Roza Otunbayeva will discuss the challenges facing Kyrgyzstan today and likely future developments. Attendance at this event is by invitation only. For more information please contact Lubica Pollakova. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183251 Thu, 10 May 2012 16:22:27 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183249 Throughout history, migrants have fuelled the engine of human progress. Their movement has sparked innovation, spread ideas, relieved poverty, and laid the foundations for a global economy. Cheap travel and easy communication allows today's migrants to create extensive and intimate cross-border networks, in a way that was in the past unthinkable. The speakers will argue that the way in which these networks speed up the flow of ideas across borders has profound consequences for business, technology and politics. They will put forward new approaches for governance that embrace international mobility. For more information please contact the Members Events Team http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183249 Thu, 10 May 2012 15:24:11 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183247 This is a transcript of a speech made by HE Armando Emílio Guebuza, President of Mozambique, on 9 May 2012 at Chatham House. The President discussed the role of natural resources in Mozambique's future development. He said he wished to turn the country's mineral resources into a driving force for the sustainable social transformation and industrialisation of Mozambique. Event details and Q&A. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183247 Thu, 10 May 2012 15:16:14 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183243 This is a summary of an event held on 25 April 2012 at Chatham House. The participants discussed recent developments in drugs and organized crime policy following the sixth Summit of the Americas, held in Cartagena in Colombia on 14-15 April 2012, and explored potential implications of the Summit for the future. The event was part of a project on Drugs and Organized Crime. Event details. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183243 Thu, 10 May 2012 12:29:52 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183241 The participants will discuss recent developments in drugs and organized crime policy following the sixth Summit of the Americas, held in Cartagena in Colombia on 14-15 April 2012, and explore potential implications of the Summit for the future. This event is part of a project on Drugs and Organized Crime. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183241 Thu, 10 May 2012 12:23:34 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183237 This is a summary of an event held on 27 March 2012 at Chatham House. The participants discussed the challenges related to drugs and organised crime, the state of the current landscape and the interconnectedness of policy approaches. The event was part of a project on Drugs and Organized Crime. Event details. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183237 Thu, 10 May 2012 12:03:36 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183229 The speaker will deliver the annual Martin Wight Memorial Lecture. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183229 Thu, 10 May 2012 10:59:02 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/video-resource/183227 http://www.chathamhouse.org/video-resource/183227 Thu, 10 May 2012 10:10:44 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/video-resource/183225 http://www.chathamhouse.org/video-resource/183225 Thu, 10 May 2012 10:07:54 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183223 In the face of emerging and increasingly complicated security challenges, Japan is seeking wider and multi-layered security cooperation with the US and its allies. The speaker will discuss how measures to overcome long-standing issues, such as the promotion of capacity-building and the review of the Japanese guidelines on the overseas transfer of defence equipment, will provide opportunities for substantial security and defence cooperation between Japan, the UK and NATO. For more information please contact Chloe Sageman. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183223 Wed, 09 May 2012 17:21:51 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183219 This is a summary of an event held on 23 February 2012 at Chatham House. Alexey Gromyko, Deputy Director, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, argued that the EU’s attempts to engage Russia in areas beyond trade have achieved little success. The discussion focussed on the future direction of EU-Russia relations. Event details. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183219 Wed, 09 May 2012 17:06:33 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183217 President of Mozambique Armando Emílio Guebuza speaks at Chatham House on his country's situation and plans with regards to mineral resources.Chair: Alex Vines OBE, Head, Africa Programme, Chatham House.    Subscribe to the Chatham House Podcast in iTunes | via RSS          Subscribe to Chatham House event audio in iTunes | via RSS http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183217 Wed, 09 May 2012 17:02:46 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183213 New political developments and tensions in the Middle East have brought into focus the pressing need to work towards a Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) free zone in the region. The UK, the US and Russia - along with the UN Secretary General and all the states in the Middle East - are moving ahead with plans to hold a meeting late in 2012 to discuss prospects for such a zone. Dr Patricia Lewis will discuss the developments announced at the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty conference held in Vienna earlier this month and assess the likelihood for success. Attendance is strictly by invitation only. To enable as open a debate as possible, this event will be held under the Chatham House Rule. About Nominees Breakfast Briefings. For more information please contact Linda Bedford   http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183213 Wed, 09 May 2012 16:20:22 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183209 The UK is hosting the meeting of the Global Health Security Action Group (GHSAG) Laboratory Network. This event will bring together members of the GHSAG to discuss and examine the relevant science, regulatory and safety issues that arose in 2012. Attendance at this event is by invitation only. For more information please contact Arthy Santhakumar. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183209 Wed, 09 May 2012 15:43:44 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183203 On October 24-25 and December 1-2, 2011, the Atlantic Council and Chatham House brought together 60 policy-makers, legal scholars and practitioners from Europe and the United States for two workshops to discuss the challenges of ensuring the observation of international human rights law in light of shifts in global power and the increasing importance of states including Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa. Throughout the discussion, the group analyzed US-European methods and tools for enhancing global compliance with human rights law and proposed key policy recommendations for more effective US-European cooperation with the rising powers. These recommendations, along with main conclusions from each session, are summarized in this document. Event details. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183203 Wed, 09 May 2012 12:36:10 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183199 This is a summary of a two-day expert consultation held on 16-17 February 2012 at Chatham House. The meeting addressed how best to design and evaluate social protection interventions for tuberculosis control. Event details. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183199 Wed, 09 May 2012 11:23:48 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183195 This event will look at the key aspects of Turkey-Armenia rapprochement. Prospects for the normalization of relations between the two countries look as bleak as ever following the collapse of the October 2009 protocols. Although the civil society contacts continue, little effort to resurrect the process has been observed at the official level. Are the 2009 protocols dead? What could restart the process and who or what are the main obstacles? What practical steps have been taken to encourage a shift in public opinion? Attendance at this event is by invitation only. For more information please contact Lubica Pollakova. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183195 Wed, 09 May 2012 10:47:41 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/183173 Significant improvements in the quality and timeliness of famine early warning systems have not been matched by comparable improvements in the responsiveness of governments and the international community. As a result, the opportunity to protect more lives and livelihoods is lost.  The most recent example of this was the 2011 Horn of Africa food crisis, and in particular the famine in Somalia. Early warnings increased in frequency and urgency over the course of a year until famine was eventually declared in July. It was only at that point when donors and agencies fully mobilized. Last month, Chatham House held an expert workshop as part of the research project Translating Early Warning into Early Action. The workshop identified multiple barriers relating to the ways in which early warning information is communicated and interpreted; the incentives and accountability ameworks under which decision-makers operate; the limitations of the aid architecture; and the challenges of organizing and coordinating effectively across the international humanitarian system and its plethora of agencies and agendas. A full report of the workshop is available, but the focus here is on three key outcomes. A new Paradigm is Needed The international system is not set-up to deliver early action, which falls between the cracks of long-term development on the one hand and emergency response on the other. This split exists at all levels. Aid workers specialize in either humanitarian or development work, and struggle to move out of their silos. Beyond a bit of dabbling here and there, it’s the same story for agencies (think World Food Program versus Food and Agriculture Organization). And these divisions are perpetuated by an aid architecture that is similarly bifurcated, with humanitarian funding only being available after an emergency is declared. There are exceptions to this of course, but the overall picture is a fair one. As a result, when early warnings trigger, humanitarians are hamstrung by a lack of tools (they specialize in response not prevention) and a lack of funds. Meanwhile development actors, who are often better equipped to undertake the types of resilience-building interventions needed, do not see it as their job and probably lack sufficiently flexible funding to adapt their programs anyway. A new paradigm is needed, that moves out of silos towards integrated programming focused on building resilience and managing risk. Ultimately, the objective must be long-term programs that respond continually to early warning information, flexing between development, disaster risk reduction, early action and emergency interventions according to needs.  This will require major changes in organizational structures, funding architectures, and ways of working. It will not happen without strong and concerted leadership from politicians in donor and national governments and leaders within the UN system and international NGOs.  There are encouraging signs that things are starting to shift. The high-level informal grouping of Political Champions for Disaster Resilience held its first meeting last month. The UN Secretary General’s current five-year action agenda prioritizes resilience, and numerous donors and agencies are developing resilience-based strategies. But there is a long way to go, so this momentum must be sustained if the systemic transformation required is to be realized. Long-term commitments to which governments and agencies can be held accountable offer a means to do so; upcoming opportunities include the tenth anniversary of the Good Humanitarian Donorship Principles, and the setting of new international commitments to succeed the Hyogo Framework for Action and the Millennium Development Goals. Politics Trumps Everything Else Technocratic solutions – like improving early warning information, redesigning decision-making, integrating programming, tinkering with incentive structures and reforming funding – are important but can only get us so far. Early action depends upon the will of governments, in affected countries and donor countries. Politics is the limiting factor.  Donor governments consider the consequences of a particular crisis for their own agendas in deciding if and when to respond, and with how much money. Their interests may be served by preventing a crisis, if for example stability within the country concerned is valuable. Alternatively, they may prioritize other strategic imperatives over humanitarian concerns – for example, for a number of Western donors last year, counter-terrorism, or more specifically preventing humanitarian assistance from falling into the hands of the Islamist militia Al-Shabaab, was a greater priority in Somalia than preventing famine. Governments in affected countries may also be slow to respond to early warnings for various reasons. They may choose to deny a problem, for fear of tarnishing the image they wish to project to the international community. Or they may be less concerned about crises occurring within politically marginalised communities. Addressing the politics of early action is particularly challenging, as the NGOs and UN agencies best placed to challenge obstructive political agendas are themselves compromised – they are funded by donor governments and depend upon affected country governments for humanitarian access. Approaches to insulate decision-making from political agendas should be explored, but these will inevitably be resisted by governments that would lose power in a depoliticized process. In the meantime, agencies and NGOs must get smarter in their advocacy, building political analysis into their planning and working out how to build coalitions for action and challenge obstructive governments through new channels and approaches. Are We Learning from Our Mistakes? The failure to prevent famine in Somalia in 2011 was rightly criticized. As a result, donors and agencies are keen to demonstrate that they have learned from their mistakes, and have undertaken considerable efforts to mobilize resources and raise awareness about the current situation in the Sahel, where poor harvests have left the region facing food shortages. A number of NGOs have launched appeals to fund early action, whilst a meeting in February of heads of UN agencies, donors and government representatives called for coordinated action to prevent an emergency. This is welcome, and indicates a heightened awareness of the need for earlier action among senior decision-makers.  But questions remain as to whether the emphasis is right. Whilst there is no doubt that the situation in parts of the Sahel is serious, there is not a consensus among early warnings providers on how bad things could get. Meanwhile early warnings of poor March-May rains in the Horn of Africa, where vulnerability remains extreme following last year’s emergency, have received comparatively little attention from donors, agencies or the media.  The clear wish to avert a disaster in the Sahel is to be commended, however the fact that agencies, donors and early warnings providers are struggling to reach consensus on the gravity of the situation indicates that there is still work to do. Meanwhile the risk that the current focus on the Sahel is marginalizing the ongoing crisis in the Horn is real. If you would like to comment on this article, please contact Chatham House Feedback  Further Resources Translating Early Warning into Early ActionWorkshop Summary, April 2012 Project Translating Early Warning into Early Action >> http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/183173 Fri, 04 May 2012 16:30:17 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/183167 There are those, not least in the West, who hope or even suppose that Vladimir Putin's reincarnation on 7 May as President of Russia will mean a fresh start. On the face of it, he is well placed to make one. The new Duma is structured for subservience, the Russian economy is doing pretty well, and the protest movement has lost the momentum it enjoyed from December 2011 to March this year. Putin's personal dominance over the small group of his associates that rule the country has been reinforced. That also means of course that his answerability for the future course of events has increased too. It would be unusual for any man embarking on what in effect is his fourth term of office to change his underlying ideas. Dimitry Medvedev, who used a different vocabulary, has been set aside as a tame Prime Minister in waiting. It is probable that the next administration President Putin sponsors will for the most part be a reshuffle of well-used cards. Putin’s campaign offering was stability, not change. The 2011/2012 electoral cycle was nonetheless a stage in a continuing process which has increased the gap between the ruling group and substantial sections of Russian society – not just the urban middle class. Putin's hold as a national leader beyond mere politics has been damaged. He will need to show purpose and convey a sense of renewal if he is to regain his previous authority, and certainly so if he plans to return yet again to the Kremlin in 2018.  Economic Road Map: Without the Politics? The thrust of Putin’s proposals, which are to be set out in detail in the implementation road map that he has promised to issue, appear to rely on the state to take the lead in diversifying and reinvigorating the economy. Putin has called for the private sector to do more, for an investment surge, and he has recognized areas of past weakness like corruption – yet again. The Ministry for Economic Development has put forward alternative outlooks, one of continued reliance on natural resources, or innovation; in other words a conservative and ambitious growth strategy. If the Ministry’s assumptions are justified, Russia will be doing better than many in terms of GDP growth under either scenario over the next few years. None of this threatens Putin's 'power vertical'. The various discussion groups sanctioned recently, such as the extensive and well qualified body which put forward a revised strategy for development up to 2020, were firmly instructed to keep off the political grass. There is room for improvement if some of their ideas were to be implemented. Going beyond the piecemeal and realizing some of the more ambitious targets that Putin has set would be difficult even if state leadership were the best way of achieving them: the machinery is corrupted and incompetent. Investment rates are unlikely to improve radically - as Putin has demanded - without transparency, accountability, the rule of law and secure property rights. This is universally acknowledged but expected by no one. Significant structural change would depend on the establishment of such principles, and would threaten the interests of both those at the summit of the so-called vertical and those charged with implementing its policies. Such change would be difficult, too, for a substantial number of Russia’s ordinary citizens, and nothing has been done to prepare them for it. 'Innovation' and 'modernization' are of course favourite words for everyone, and Putin not least. They are also usefully ambiguous. They carry a heavy bias towards technological improvement in the official political discourse, including through foreign direct investment and existing enterprises. That restrictive approach will neither upset the status quo nor provide for Russia’s longer term evolution towards flexible and accountable government. Nor will it answer to the next President's need to recapture his hold over the Russian imagination.  Making Concessions Both political and economic change are interlinked; and dangerous and necessary if Russia is to develop as it deserves. Putin and Medvedev were shocked by the recent protests, but have apparently recovered their poise. The systemic concessions as to gubernatorial and municipal elections have been modified so as to subject them to a considerable degree of central control. If such control cannot be maintained tensions with regional or municipal leaders with their own legitimacy would have to be secured either by compulsion or reinvented and trusted constitutional mechanisms. (The Kadyrov model of devolved tyranny is a dangerous singularity).  Putin appears to have no new ideas which might enable him to re-establish himself as the director of events. That does not necessarily doom the next administration but it does make him and Russia more vulnerable to the unexpected. The questions of what or who may follow Putin together with what reliable institutions there may be to allow for fruitful evolution will become more urgent than ever. The sense that Russia is headed in the wrong direction is well established in the national consciousness. If you would like to comment on this article, please contact Chatham House Feedback  http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/183167 Fri, 04 May 2012 13:06:38 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183165 This is a transcript of a speech made by John Zogby, Senior Analyst at JZ Analytics, on 1 May 2012 at Chatham House. Mr Zogby looked at the key demographic voting groups and how their responses to the personalities of the leading presidential candidates in the 2012 elections will affect the final outcome. Event details and Q&A. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183165 Fri, 04 May 2012 13:00:48 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183153 This event will feature a preview for the forthcoming Chatham House International Economics Report Shifting Capital: the Rise of Financial Centre’s in Greater China. The report assesses four financial centres – Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Taipei – and their rise as a potential reflection of greater financial integration of China into the world. Given the rapidly changing financial environment in the Greater China region, the report considers Beijing’s role as the political engine behind reform of China's domestic financial sector, and the on-going RMB internationalization strategy. Attendance is by invitation only.  The report will be published on 11 May.  For more information please contact Jamie Cirrito. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183153 Thu, 03 May 2012 17:37:20 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183151 Since the withdrawal of US forces in December 2011, Iraq’s coalition government has found itself increasingly challenged in efforts to maintain stability. The speakers will explore the prospects for Iraq against a backdrop of sectarian tensions, ongoing conflict in Syria and an internationally isolated Iran. The role that the international community can play in supporting Iraq, nearly a decade on from the start of the war in 2003 will also be examined. LIVE STREAM: This event will be live streamed for members only. The live stream will be made available here at 13:00 BST on Tuesday 19 June. ASK A QUESTION: Send questions for the speakers by email to questions@chathamhouse.org or using #askCH on Twitter. A selection will be put to them at the event. For more information about this event, please contact the Members Events Team http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183151 Thu, 03 May 2012 17:26:57 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/183149 Boko Haram's escalation of violent activity across northern Nigeria has been relentless. In the space of a few years, it has transformed from a somewhat troubling group to a serious terrorist organization: better equipped, better organized and much more violent. In the past 18 months it has extended its geographic reach and expanded its range of targets. Helped by the fact that this kind of terrorism is a new phenomenon in Nigeria, Boko Haram's changeability and rapid escalation have given it the advantage and made it the dominant violent organization in Nigeria's north. The problem of terrorism in Nigeria will get worse before it gets better. But options for effective responses to the challenges presented by Boko Haram and similar groups operating in northern Nigeria are not as limited as the scale of the challenge or complexity of the environment might suggest.  An effective response at this stage is difficult because indiscriminate terrorism on this scale is still new to Nigeria. And it is made more difficult because resolving the problem requires coordination and a nuanced approach – and success is dependent upon leadership and political cooperation in Nigeria that bridges region and religion.  Boko Haram's attacks tend to come in waves and since 2010 it has demonstrated a growing capacity for organized and coordinated attacks with the effect of matching carnage with chaos, thus making immediate response more difficult. As its confidence and capacity have grown, Boko Haram has become less discriminating in its victims. Seven people died in the recent ThisDay bombings in Abuja and Kaduna, and more lives were lost in subsequent attacks on a Kano university campus church and on a police station in eastern Nigeria. Multiple Threats But there have been violent attacks in the north carried out by similar or affiliated groups and criminal gangs. The issue of multiple groups is an important one: for those tasked with tackling the terrorist threat from the north, it makes for a more amorphous set of actors to deal with – especially where the lines between pure criminal and religious-ideological interests overlap.  It also complicates things for these groups. There have been suggestions of discord within Boko Haram (in its early days its two founders went their separate ways once they found they did not share the same vision for the future of the group). But complex politics, relationships and disagreements are likely to emerge among the various groups in the event of competition over territory, resources, and profile. While it is too reductive to explain Boko Haram's emergence through socio-economic factors alone, it is no coincidence that it emerged from Nigeria's most impoverished region, the north-east. Delivery on reforms in the power and agricultural sectors, critical to economic diversification in the country, would change the lives of all Nigerians – but in particular would allow for regeneration of the northern economy.  Local Focus Nigeria's federal and state governments and critically, local authorities and traditional leaders, need to (re)gain some credibility among their northern constituencies. Boko Haram – the core organization in its original form – emerged as a local group that recruited locally. In the shorter term therefore, gaining the trust of communities and engaging at this level is the best route to understanding and containing such groups, and to preventing further recruitment and radicalization. What started as a local issue has taken on a regional dimension – which is inevitable with porous borders spanned by family ties, communities and trade. Policing Nigeria's borders with Niger, Chad and Cameroon but without crippling the border economies is a key challenge.  International Response International partners can provide advice, technical assistance and logistical support. But overt and overly interventionist involvement by international partners could worsen the problem: conferring upon Boko Haram an international profile that it does not – at least thus far – warrant and thereby motivating it to up its game.  International partners can play a crucial role in frustrating the development of Boko Haram's relationships with regional and international terrorist groups. While informal relationships may already exist, Boko Haram and its affiliates/copycats remain largely Nigerian – the conflation of Nigerian groups with Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb is unhelpful at best and damaging at worst. In terms of regional dimensions of the problem there is also a need to better understand illicit trading routes across the region.  Boko Haram presents one further challenge to this nascent democracy. There are serious concerns about what it is doing to the cohesion of this at times seemingly divided nation. But it is also thanks to Nigeria's scale and diversity that Boko Haram cannot on its own put the country on a negative trajectory. Nigerians often remark that no condition is permanent, and the political will to implement a careful, nuanced and multifaceted strategy could shift the balance and start to slow and then reverse Boko Haram's damaging march. If you would like to comment on this article, please contact Chatham House Feedback  Nigeria Project >> http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/183149 Thu, 03 May 2012 17:15:33 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183147 With some questioning America’s standing in the new global order, US Ambassador Louis Susman will set out the case for why - despite undeniable challenges - America’s fundamental strengths encompassing hard and soft power mean the United States will retain its position of global leadership in the 21st century. For more information please contact the Members Events Team. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183147 Thu, 03 May 2012 16:58:20 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183145 This is a summary of a two-day workshop held on 11-12 April 2012 at Chatham House. The workshop was part of the project Translating Early Warning into Early Action which aims to analyse the way in which governments, donors, and humanitarian agencies use and react to early warning information related to slow onset food crises, and identify barriers to translating early warning information into early and appropriate actions. Event details. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183145 Thu, 03 May 2012 16:53:38 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183139 Foreign Office Podcast: Foreign Office Minister Alistair Burt and Dr Patricia Lewis from Chatham House discuss what messages should come from the 2012 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Preparatory Committee that would best support international peace and security.   Subscribe to the Chatham House Podcast in iTunes | via RSS          Subscribe to Chatham House event audio in iTunes | via RSS http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183139 Thu, 03 May 2012 15:58:50 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183137 Foreign Office Podcast: Foreign Office Minister Alistair Burt and Dr Patricia Lewis from Chatham House discuss how the NPT can face up to the contemporary security challenges posed by Iran and the Middle East.   Subscribe to the Chatham House Podcast in iTunes | via RSS          Subscribe to Chatham House event audio in iTunes | via RSS http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183137 Thu, 03 May 2012 15:55:11 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183135 Foreign Office Podcast: Foreign Office Minister Alistair Burt and Dr Patricia Lewis from Chatham House discuss the relevance of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) today.   Subscribe to the Chatham House Podcast in iTunes | via RSS          Subscribe to Chatham House event audio in iTunes | via RSS http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183135 Thu, 03 May 2012 15:48:42 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/node/183123 http://www.chathamhouse.org/node/183123 Wed, 02 May 2012 13:40:45 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183119 Marie Mendras will discuss the evolution of the Russian state and society since 1991 and the impact it continues to have on Russia’s relations with the outside world. In her new book, Russian Politics: The Paradox of a Weak State, she contends that the Russian state has become weak and ineffective because Vladimir Putin has dismantled and undermined most public institutions.  Attendance at this event is by invitation only. Copies of the book will be available for purchase at the event. For more information please contact Lubica Pollakova. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183119 Wed, 02 May 2012 11:58:08 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183117 This paper lays out the likely China policy of either a second-term Barack Obama administration or an incoming Mitt Romney administration, and the international implications of these two alternatives.This paper is part of the US Election Note series.PodcastListen to Xenia Dormandy discusses US-China relations, and introduce the US Election Note series in this podcast. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183117 Wed, 02 May 2012 11:28:31 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183115 This is a transcript of a speech made by Pa'gan Amum, Chief Negotiator of the Republic of South Sudan, on 1 May 2012 at Chatham House. The speaker said that negotiations between Sudan and South Sudan must resume immediately. He called on the international community to assist in demarcating the border between the two countries and said that a UN mandated force shouldbe deployed along the border to avoid further conflict. Event details and Q&A. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183115 Wed, 02 May 2012 11:17:04 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183107 Pollster John Zogby looks at the state of play in the US Presidential Election, analysing the four key groups and likely voting patterns.   Subscribe to the Chatham House Podcast in iTunes | via RSS          Subscribe to Chatham House event audio in iTunes | via RSS http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183107 Wed, 02 May 2012 10:01:58 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183101 This is a transcript of an event held on 27 April 2012 at Chatham House. The speakers were Anaiz Parfait, European Campaign Director of Global Zero; John Woodcock, Labour MP for Barrow-in-Furness; and Kat Barton, Research Associate, the Acronym Institute for Disarmament Diplomacy. They examined the links between nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, and considered what a world without nuclear weapons would mean. Event details. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183101 Tue, 01 May 2012 15:27:24 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183095 Pa'gan Amum, Secretary General of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement and Chief Negotiator of the Republic of South Sudan, takes questions at Chatham House on 1 May 2012.   Subscribe to the Chatham House Podcast in iTunes | via RSS          Subscribe to Chatham House event audio in iTunes | via RSS http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183095 Tue, 01 May 2012 13:34:07 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183093 Pa'gan Amum, Secretary General of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement and Chief Negotiator of the Republic of South Sudan, introduces the situation between Sudan and South Sudan, at Chatham House on 1 May 2012.   Subscribe to the Chatham House Podcast in iTunes | via RSS          Subscribe to Chatham House event audio in iTunes | via RSS http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183093 Tue, 01 May 2012 12:11:50 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183087 What does November's presidential election mean for the world outside the US? Xenia Dormandy, Senior Fellow on the US International Role, at Chatham House, introduces a series of notes examining this, starting with China and the US.   Subscribe to the Chatham House Podcast in iTunes | via RSS          Subscribe to Chatham House event audio in iTunes | via RSS http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183087 Mon, 30 Apr 2012 16:23:20 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183083 This is a transcript of a speech made by Lindsey Hilsum, International Editor, Channel 4 News, on 27 April 2012 at Chatham House. Ms Hilsum drew on her experiences of reporting from Libya to reflect on the overthrow of Colonel Gaddafi and how his removal from power has transformed the lives of Libyans. Event details and Q&A. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/183083 Mon, 30 Apr 2012 15:14:41 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183075 In the last few weeks there has been increased militarization in the border areas of Sudan and South Sudan. Dispute over the ownership of oil-producing Heglig and the aerial bombing of Bentiu in South Sudan has led to noises about war from both sides. HE Pa’gan Amum will discuss the increased tensions between Sudan and South Sudan and give his thoughts about how to solve the pressing issues of security, oil revenue sharing and border demarcation in order to prevent further deterioration in relations. For more information please contact Tighisti Amare. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183075 Fri, 27 Apr 2012 17:19:42 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183073 This event will explore the challenges in classifying armed violence, as discussed in a forthcoming book entitled International Law and the Classification of Conflicts, due to be published by Oxford University Press in the summer.  Further details and the list of speakers will be circulated nearer the time. For more information please contact Alis Martin. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183073 Fri, 27 Apr 2012 17:17:30 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/books/archive/view/183071 This book comprises contributions by leading experts in the field of international humanitarian law on the subject of the categorisation or classification of armed conflict. It is divided into two sections: the first aims to provide the reader with a sound understanding of the legal questions surrounding the classification of hostilities and its consequences; the second includes ten case studies that examine practice in respect of classification.  Detailed and comprehensive overview of all the legal issues involved in classifying conflicts either as international or non-international Classification of recent conflicts, such as those in Libya, Afghanistan, Gaza, and the conflict with Al-Qaeda, demonstrate the uncertainty surrounding the conflicts Detailed case studies, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Southern Lebanon, and Columbia, provide evidence of the practice of states and non-state armed groups Explores the increasing overlap between international humanitarian law and international human rights law in situations of conflict Understanding how classification operates in theory and practice is a precursor to identifying the relevant rules that govern parties to hostilities. With changing forms of armed conflict which may involve multi-national operations, transnational armed groups and organized criminal gangs, the need for clarity of the law is all-important. The case studies selected for analysis are Northern Ireland, DRC, Colombia, Afghanistan (from 2001), Gaza, South Ossetia, Iraq (from 2003), Lebanon (2006), the so-called war against Al-Qaeda, and future trends. The studies explore the legal consequences of classification particularly in respect of the use of force, detention in armed conflict, and the relationship between human rights law and international humanitarian law. The practice identified in the case studies allows the final chapter to draw conclusions as to the state of the law on classification. Editor:  Edited by Elizabeth Wilmshurst, Associate Fellow, Chatham House Elizabeth Wilmshurst, CMG is Associate Fellow in International Law, at Chatham House and a visiting professor at University College, London University. She was a legal adviser in the UK diplomatic service between 1974 and 2003, during which time she was the Legal Adviser to the UK mission to the United Nations in New York between 1994 and 1997. She is a co-author of An Introduction to International Criminal Law and Procedure (2nd ed. Cambridge, 2010) and a co-editor of Perspectives on the ICRC Study on Customary International Humanitarian Law (Cambridge, 2007). Contributors: Dapo Akande, Co-Director of the Oxford Institute for Ethics, Law and Armed Conflict, and Lecturer in Law, Oxford UniversityLouise Arimatsu, Associate Fellow, Chatham HouseAnnie Bird, London School of EconomicsLt Col Grant Davies, Army Legal Services officer in the British Army Francoise Hampson, formerly Professor of Law, University of Essex Steven Haines, Professor, Head of Security and Law Programme, Geneva Centre for Security PolicyPhilip Leach, Professor of Human Rights, London Metropolitan University, Director, European Human Rights Advocacy CentreNoam Lubell, Reader in Law, Essex UniversityJelena Pejic, ICRCMichael Schmitt, Chairman, International Law Department, United States Naval War CollegeIain Scobbie, Sir Joseph Hotung Research Professor, SOAS, London UniversityFelicity Szenat, Essex University Order This book is not yet available to order. The book is published by Oxford University Press. For more information please contact Publications. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/books/archive/view/183071 Fri, 27 Apr 2012 16:49:37 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/node/183069 http://www.chathamhouse.org/node/183069 Fri, 27 Apr 2012 16:26:45 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183063 Lindsey Hilsum, the International Editor at Channel 4 News gives an engaging account of 2011 in Libya, with historical and political anecdotes and observations. The chair is Elham Saudi, Co-Founder and Director, Lawyers for Justice in Libya.   Subscribe to the Chatham House Podcast in iTunes | via RSS          Subscribe to Chatham House event audio in iTunes | via RSS http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/183063 Fri, 27 Apr 2012 14:54:52 +0100 Chatham House - What's New http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183059 Recent research on the economics of low carbon cities has shown that there is a very strong and commercially attractive business case for major scale investments in city-scale retrofits to reduce energy demand from the domestic, commercial, industrial and transport sectors. The aim of this workshop is to advance the debate on the raising and structuring of finance for low carbon investments at the city scale, bringing together representatives from local authorities, the investment community, government and experts on low carbon finance. Attendance at this event is by invitation only. For more information please contact Jens Hein. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/183059 Fri, 27 Apr 2012 11:03:26 +0100 Chatham House - What's New