Chatham House Africa feed http://www.chathamhouse.org/ Thu, 23 May 2013 13:45:11 +0100 Thu, 23 May 2013 15:50:36 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/191613 This event will launch the 2013 joint UNECA and African Union Commission (AUC) economic report on Africa. By focusing on commodity-based industrialization as an engine of growth for Africa, the report argues that African countries have a real opportunity, individually and collectively, to promote economic transformation and to address poverty, inequality and youth unemployment. Emmanuel Nnadozie, Director of the ECA’s Macroeconomic Policy Division, will outline the importance of designing and implementing effective development plans and industrial strategies to promote commodity-based industrialization. For more information please contact Chris Vandome http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/191613 Thu, 23 May 2013 13:45:11 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/191611 Instability in the Sahel and the crises in Mali, Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of the Congo have provoked a re-evaluation of approaches to insecurity in Africa, both within and outside the continent. This workshop will bring together officials and practitioners from within the EU External Action Services, as well as academics and civil society groups to discuss the linking of security and development policies, and its implications for sustainable security and peace in Africa. It will provide opportunity for constructive dialogue on the EU's Africa foreign policymaking. Attendance is by invitation only. For more information please contact Tighisti Amare http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/191611 Thu, 23 May 2013 13:39:47 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/research/africa/current-projects/african-union-50 2013 marks the 50th anniversary of the formation of the Organization of African Unity (OAU). Founded on 25 May 1963, by representatives of 32 governments, the OAU was established to support African states in their decolonization process. It has since evolved into the African Union, with 54 member states and a broad remit that includes integrated peace and security, development and the continent's socio-economic integration.Through the prism of specific country and regional dynamics and connected themes, the Africa Programme continues policy research and analysis of the African Union. Current and historical resources below reflect the ongoing fundamental changes and considers the future of the organization. The Future of the AUEthiopian Foreign Minister, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, discussed the political and socio-economic integration of the continent, and the AU's role as a platform for Africa's collective engagement with the rest of the world. Transcript/Audio. Raising Africa's Global ProfileUnderstanding the role that security plays in promoting development, and working to promote both in a global security environment, is Africa’s next great challenge, writes Jeremy Astill-Brown. Read.African Peace and Security ArchitectureAlex Vines examines how the African Union has handled Africa's peace and security challenges since 2002, defines what has been successful and what remains aspirational. Read. PublicationsAfrican Union Perspectives on Mali and the SahelMeeting Summary, March 2013NEPAD and the Next Phase in African DevelopmentMeeting Summary, April 2012Ensuring Peace and Security in Africa: Implementing the New Africa-EU PartnershipTranscript, October 2010 Ensuring Peace and Security in Africa: Implementing the New Africa-EU PartnershipConference Summary, October 2010 Africa's New Human Rights Court: Whistling in the Wind?Briefing Paper, Sonya Sceats, March 2009Options for the EU to Support the African Peace and Security ArchitectureProgramme Paper, Alex Vines and Roger Middleton, June 2008Cosmopolitan Peacekeeping and Peacebuilding in Sierra Leone: What can Africa Contribute? International Affairs, David Curran and Tom Woodhouse, November 2007What's New in the 'New Partnership for Africa's Development'? International Affairs, Alex De Waal, July 2002From the archiveThe Organisation of African Unity-Success or Failure?International Affairs, Colin Legum, April 1975The African States and the OAU International Affairs, Nora McKeon, July 1966 http://www.chathamhouse.org/research/africa/current-projects/african-union-50 Thu, 23 May 2013 12:20:09 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/191575   Subscribe to the Chatham House Podcast in iTunes | via RSS           Subscribe to Chatham House event audio in iTunes | via RSS Angola has faced considerable challenges in its gradual transition to democracy since the end of the civil war in 2002. In recent years the country's democratic development has been galvanized by the emergence of new political parties. In 2012 the former foreign secretary of UNITA, Abel Chivukuvuku, left the opposition to form the Convergência Ampla de Salvação de Angola (CASA-CE) and contested last year's elections, winning 6 per cent of the national vote and almost 13 per cent in Luanda. http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/191575 Wed, 22 May 2013 12:45:09 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/191545   Subscribe to the Chatham House Podcast in iTunes | via RSS          Subscribe to Chatham House event audio in iTunes | via RSS May 2013 marks the fiftieth anniversary of the founding of the African Union's predecessor, the Organization of African Unity (OAU). Originally intended to support African states' ambitions for decolonization and to defend their sovereignty, the OAU was replaced by the African Union (AU) in 2002. The AU has continued with the ambition of uniting its member states and supporting their development and economic integration.  http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/191545 Mon, 20 May 2013 14:27:32 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/191519 Twenty years ago this Sunday, the United States belatedly recognized Angola. Today, Angola is the second-largest trading partner of the US in sub-Saharan Africa, a country at peace and enjoying one of the fastest rates of economic growth in the world. It is the second largest producer of oil in sub-Saharan Africa and an OPEC member that has allowed major US oil companies to prosper. But all is not well in the relationship. Angola achieved independence from Portugal in 1975 and immediately became a major battle ground of the Cold War. The US refused to recognize the pro-Soviet and Cuban backed MPLA government, encouraged apartheid South African military incursions and trained and supplied the rebel UNITA forces. At one point, Angola became the second largest recipient of US covert aid after the Afghan Mujahedeen. Fast forward to today, and the MPLA is still the ruling party, with President José Eduardo dos Santos having been in power since 1979. And, despite the many global suitors, dos Santos said recently that Angola has only four strategic partners: Brazil, China, Portugal and the United States. China's relationship with the country is blossoming – more than 258,000 Chinese received work visas for Angola in 2011. Portugal does well, too, with more than 100,000 nationals working in Angola; one in five liters of exported Portuguese wine is now consumed in Angola. Trade and cultural ties with Brazil, meanwhile, are very close and the South American giant was the first country to establish diplomatic relations with Luanda, in 1975. But what of the United States? There was certainly a honeymoon period after President Clinton recognized Angola. US oil companies prospered, including negotiating a multiple entry visa regime for US workers to Angola, a privilege that few other countries have emulated. In 1994, Clinton also successfully obtained dos Santos' agreement to sign up to the short-lived Lusaka peace accords with UNITA. President George W. Bush likewise was able to push successfully for transparency of oil rents when he met dos Santos at the White House. The Obama administration has for its part identified three 'strategic partners' on the African continent: South Africa, Nigeria and Angola. After Angola was identified as a partner in 2009, a US-Angola Strategic Partnership Dialogue has been set up. So what's the problem? In practice, the dialogue has achieved little and the government-to-government relationship today is prickly and pedestrian – so much so that at the last moment the Angolan foreign minister reportedly postponed a trip to the United States scheduled for this month that was meant to celebrate the 20th anniversary of US-Angola relations. Two key issues seem to be at the root of the problems. First, with a changing global order, Angola's policy makers enjoy choice and have become less-enamored with the United States as other suitors have stepped in. Second, Angola represents a major challenge for US diplomats and business as it throws up the challenge of US values versus interests. This January, Forbes named Isabel, the eldest daughter of President dos Santos, Africa's first female billionaire. Not long after, Transparency International ranked Angola 168th out of 178 countries in its corruption perception index. The reality is that the perception of corruption and rent-seeking is a barrier for US investors, and despite the best efforts of the US Embassy in Luanda and the US-Angola Chamber of Commerce in Washington DC, the last couple of years have been tough, not helped by US probes into the bank accounts of Angolan diplomatic missions, or the seizure of a US flagged ship and crew in Angola. Yet Angola is not all that dissimilar to some other African markets that US companies invest in, and the United States has much to offer Angola – in business, skills transfer and know how – all of which could help Angola become the regional power it aspires to be. Angola's opposition parties also see how important the US is, underscored by the visit to Washington recently of the leader of UNITA; the leader of Angola's newest successful opposition party, CASA, is about to visit Washington. Angola's strategic partnerships are a four legged stool, but the US leg is undoubtedly the weakest. Some major US companies are investing in Angola: General Electric for example has recently invested some $2 billion in health and infrastructure. But increased US investment to Angola will require greater openness because requirements such as the Dodd-Frank rule requiring that oil companies disclose payments to foreign governments won't be going away. Angola is an emerging African regional power of genuine commercial, political and strategic importance to the US. The 20th anniversary of relations between the two countries might be a good opportunity to take an honest look at how the partnership can best work for both. This article originally appeared on CNN.com. To comment on this article please contact Chatham House Feedback More on the Angola Forum. http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/191519 Fri, 17 May 2013 16:39:42 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/191489 This is a summary of an event held at Chatham House on 3 May 2013. Representatives from Somali civil society commented on changes in Somalia's security situation and political progress. Event details. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/191489 Wed, 15 May 2013 18:24:48 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/191485 At this roundtable discussion, the British ambassador to Angola, Richard Wildash, will give a briefing on trends in Angola, the political and economic context, and how the bilateral relationship has evolved.   This event will be held under the Chatham House Rule. Attendance is by invitation only. For more information please contact Tighisti Amare http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/191485 Wed, 15 May 2013 17:31:59 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/191483 Rwanda is an integral actor within the Great Lakes regional economy. The country's political stability and efforts to improve economic management have led to rapid economic growth and increasing interest from international investors. At this event, Claver Gatele will discuss the foundations of this economic transformation and how Rwanda can harness current opportunities to sustain growth and development to the benefit of Rwandans and the region.   Attendance is by invitation only. For more information please contact Chris Vandome http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/191483 Wed, 15 May 2013 17:26:17 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/191457 Al Shabaab surfaced as a powerful insurgent movement in Somalia in 2006, going on to control large parts of south central Somalia. But since 2012, the strengthened African Union military presence has seen al Shabaab lose ground, and it remains unclear what role whether the group could play a role in the country's future political dispensation. Al Shabaab remains widely discussed, yet little-researched and understood. Stig Jarle Hansen's book, Al-Shabaab in Somalia: The History and Ideology of a Militant Islamist Group (published by Hurst), explores the history and ideology of the organization, based on field research and interviews conducted in Somalia. The author will examine the context of the retreat by al Shabaab and its implications, as well as debating the group's resilience and possible future direction of its insurgency. For more information please contact Chris Vandome http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/191457 Tue, 14 May 2013 18:24:26 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/191453 France wields a level of influence in sub-Saharan Africa that it cannot command anywhere else in the world. In crisis situations, it is still seen as a key source of diplomatic, military or even financial pressure on or support for the countries in the region.  Africa accounts for 3% of France's exports and remains an important supplier of oil and metals – uranium from Niger is particularly strategic for energy security as about one-quarter of France's electricity production depends on it.  The value of French merchandise exports and imports to Africa has significantly increased since 1960 but France's market share there has consistently declined: from 7.73% of exports and 9.08% of imports in 1960 to 2.82% and 2.05% respectively in 2011. There are some bright spots, however: sub-Saharan Africa is an important market for French logistics, service, telecoms and infrastructure companies.   President François Hollande's early Africa strategy has amounted to rather more than the military intervention in Mali. He has attempted to refashion France's wider political approach towards the continent and make a distinct break from the message and policy priorities of the Sarkozy era.  President Nicolas Sarkozy was self-confident and direct, but Hollande has shown a subtler ear for the tone of African diplomacy and how this can be used to productive effect. The trouble taken by Hollande to seek African opinion before going ahead with military intervention contrasted with past practice.   French authorities have tried to establish dialogues on Africa with emerging powers – especially China – as well as aid and commercial partnerships with African countries. This policy had some success under Sarkozy and continues under Hollande.  Hollande sent a strong message of general principle in 2012 that countries with democratic governance will benefit from stronger support. However, in practice he has adopted a much more flexible and nuanced approach in dealings with individual regimes. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/191453 Tue, 14 May 2013 17:35:07 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/191437 This is a transcript of a speech made by HE Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ethiopia, on 13 May 2013 at Chatham House. The speaker reflected on 50 years of change and cooperation in Africa since the founding of the African Union's predecessor, the Organization of African Unity, and discussed the role that the AU can play going forward. Event details http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/191437 Tue, 14 May 2013 11:49:04 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/ia/archive/view/191413 With abundant resources and growing markets, the African continent is once again at the centre of a new 'great game of courtship' between the established and rising powers. However, compared with previous decades, African countries are no longer passive players in international relations.This article explores Africa's recent negotiating behaviour in relation to a selected set of actors that animate the current shifting global economic order: rising powers, established powers and international organizations. Despite potential sources of bargaining leverage, most African countries (with some notable exceptions) are still reactive to the bilateral overtures of Brazil, China and India and unable to set the terms of engagement.Nonetheless, the rise of these new powers provides alternative negotiating partners (and potentially more developmental outcomes) to the established powers. By comparison, at the multilateral level the African Group has been far more active and assertive in contesting global governance in the pursuit of greater distributive justice, particularly in the climate, trade and security regimes. This has taken place largely through the adroit use of distributive bargaining and tactics, supplemented by normative-based strategies highlighting Africa's underdevelopment.The central argument of the article is that African countries require judicious negotiating strategies, improved deliberative capacities and coalitions with local/continental/global civil society and business networks in order to ameliorate their weaker bargaining power and reshape the terms of their engagement with their international partners, particularly the rising powers. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/ia/archive/view/191413 Mon, 13 May 2013 17:34:11 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/191345 Fifty years since its original inception, the African Union (AU) reflects a significantly changed African and global environment. Its predecessor, the Organization of African Unity (OAU), established in Addis Ababa, on 25 May 1963, was dedicated to combating colonialism, promoting the economic and political future of Africa, defending the sovereignty of African states, and to promoting a better life for African people. But today, for many in Africa, freedom and sovereignty have yet to translate into significantly improved lives.  The OAU struggled with the challenges of decolonization and securing the continent’s emerging states, buffeted all the time by Cold War politics. By contrast the AU operates in a highly globalized environment, grappling with many all too familiar security challenges – and some very modern ones too. To a degree OAU Summits – and meetings of its various security organs – were more like a reunion gathering of senior military officers than serious intergovernmental efforts to address the complexity of life for ordinary Africans. But the AU, wielding its new broom, tries - with varying degrees of success – to hold its own in the cauldron of global insecurity and economic meltdown. But, both were born of their time, and both played vital roles in advancing Africa’s cause. Despite the heavy hand of military leadership and apparently permanently installed presidents, the OAU did a great deal to set the future scene for the AU’s work: to promote the peace and security Africa needs to allow its citizens to develop and prosper. The declining years of the Cold War allowed significant African-led developments to take place in the continent’s peace and security architecture. In May 1991, the Africa Leadership Forum proposed the formation of an African Peace Council. It proposed that the Council should 'move Africa from the confinement of purely reacting to events, to a capacity of anticipatory and containment measures for its security'. The Council, designed to operate under the OAU framework, was to 'have discretion to effect a measure of intervention in national security problems of participating member states'.  Building on this, African heads of state and government issued the 1993 Cairo Declaration on the Establishment of the Central Organ of the Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management and Resolution. The declaration marked a departure from previous OAU approaches to conflict by acknowledging the need to introduce fundamental changes in order to achieve peace and stability through preventing and resolving conflicts.  This trend away from state-centric, security-led approaches towards a more citizen-centred, development-led approach continued with the signature of the AU Constitutive Act on 11 July 2000 in Lomé, Togo. Departing from the OAU's early emphasis on absolute sovereignty and non-interference, the Constitutive Act empowers the AU with the right 'to intervene in a Member State pursuant to a decision of the Assembly in respect of grave circumstances'. In effect the Constitutive Act marked the final step in a move towards formal conflict management structures.   Following its inauguration July 2002, the AU promulgated a Protocol Relating to the Establishment of the Peace and Security Council, which articulated a broad framework for implementing preventive diplomacy. This transformation led to the development of the new and wide-ranging Africa Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), marking the end of Africa’s conceptual journey away from an elite club of undemocratic leaders to a much more citizen-centred approach. Since its establishment, the AU – from a zero base – has mounted peace support missions of variable but generally improving quality in a number of African conflicts. Key interventions have included Burundi, Darfur, the Comoros and Somalia. Developing the capacity to design, mandate and deploy these missions – along with the less visible work the Union has undertaken on peace and security issues on the continent – has been far from easy. And it has often been a highly frustrating experience for Africa's international partners. But few visitors to Mogadishu now doubt the bravery and skill of African civilians and soldiers working in one of the most complex security environments on earth. But even as Africa struggles to sustain some relatively classic peace support missions, it is having to get to grips with an increasing range of policy challenges. Understanding the role that security plays in promoting development, and working to promote both in a global security environment characterized by global terrorism, trans-national crime, maritime insecurity and other cross-cutting threats such as climate change, migration and the competition for economic growth, is Africa’s next great challenge. If the last fifty years were about the continent’s security in a conventional sense, the next fifty years will be about working to promote human security in an increasingly complex environment. Africa should no longer be the place where ideological battles between West and East or secular and radical forces are played out, but the place where Africans finally complete their decolonization – of the land and of the mind – and become full partners in the global political, economic and security environment.  To comment on this article please contact Chatham House Feedback Further resources A Decade of African Peace and Security ArchitectureAlex Vines, International Affairs, January 2013 The Future of the AU: Fifty Years of the Organization of African Unity–African Union13 May 2013 HE Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia   http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/191345 Sat, 11 May 2013 22:53:46 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/191309 Somalia is undergoing a period of significant transformation. The country's transitional period officially concluded when a permanent government was established in September 2012. This new administration, under the leadership of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has gained the international recognition necessary to open doors to increased flows of aid and cooperation. Despite this new chapter in its history, Somalia faces multiple challenges, not least defining its relationship with Somaliland and semi-autonomous regions including Puntland; with its regional neighbours, some of whom retain military presence within Somalia; and with the wider international community. Her Excellency Fawzia Adam will discuss the Somali government's plans to revive and revise the country's regional and international relationships, and will outline Somalia's key foreign policy objectives for its future engagement with the international community. This event is full and registration has closed. For more information please contact Chris Vandome. Research on Somalia. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/191309 Thu, 09 May 2013 18:06:31 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/191301   Subscribe to the Chatham House Podcast in iTunes | via RSS          Subscribe to Chatham House event audio in iTunes | via RSS Dr Amin and Dr Seisi will speak about the Government of Sudan's approach to Darfur after ten years of conflict and the displacement of more than 2 million Darfuris. The speakers will describe Sudan's plans for an effective and inclusive political process, and the role of the Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD) as a basis to achieve a peaceful resolution to the conflict. http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/191301 Thu, 09 May 2013 13:43:47 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/video-resource/191283 Joseph Nye will discuss the foreign policy decisions of US presidents in the 20th century, examining the effectiveness and ethics of their choices. He will ask whether structural forces made the rise of American primacy inevitable, and what the answer says about presidential leadership in this century. http://www.chathamhouse.org/video-resource/191283 Wed, 08 May 2013 17:30:07 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/191231   Subscribe to the Chatham House Podcast in iTunes | via RSS          Subscribe to Chatham House event audio in iTunes | via RSS   Finance Minister, Pravin Gordhan, will discuss South Africa's National Development Plan and efforts to overcome outstanding challenges and maintain South Africa's position as sub-Saharan Africa's largest economy. He will discuss the role of South Africa in enhancing regional development and the importance of developing stronger links with emerging economies globally. http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/191231 Tue, 07 May 2013 15:06:10 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/191229   Subscribe to the Chatham House Podcast in iTunes | via RSS          Subscribe to Chatham House event audio in iTunes | via RSS Following the end of Angola's civil war, Isaias Samakuva was elected leader of UNITA, the country's largest opposition party, and re-elected as leader in 2011. He has overseen the transformation of UNITA from an armed movement to a political party that contested in the 2008 and 2012 national legislative elections. http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/191229 Tue, 07 May 2013 14:30:40 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/191223 Piracy was highlighted as a key issue in the communiqué released following the 2012 London Conference on Somalia. The document affirmed the international community’s understanding that piracy cannot be solved purely by military efforts; acknowledging instead that a solution would require 'a comprehensive approach on land as well as at sea'. Participants from over 50 countries and international organisations confirmed their commitment to support Somalia’s coastal communities in tackling the underlying causes of piracy. Positive signs so far Recent figures from the International Maritime Bureau show that over the past year pirate activity emanating from Somalia’s coastline has fallen dramatically. There has not only been a reduction in successful hijackings, but also in the number of attempts that pirates are making, demonstrating that piracy has become a less attractive means of revenue generation for many young Somalis. In 2011 there were 199 incidents, but by the end of 2012 this figure had dropped by almost two thirds, to 70. The last recorded hijacking of a vessel in the high risk area of the Indian Ocean was in May 2012. The reasons behind this drop are three-fold. International naval patrols began following Somali piracy's re-emergence in 2008, and have been key in apprehending and disrupting pirates operating from Somalia’s coast. EUNAVFOR's Operation Atalanta, NATO’s Operation Ocean Shield and the US-led Combined Task Force 151 have been at the forefront of increased collaboration between international navies, and the establishment of an Internationally Recommended Transit Corridor (ITRC) – a passage within the Gulf of Aden which is patrolled by naval vessels – has allowed commercial ships to continue traversing the busy shipping route running through the Gulf of Aden. The majority of commercial ship owners with vessels passing through the Indian Ocean have implemented Best Management Practices, which are guidelines detailing methods to protect a vessel from attack. These recommendations include faster travel through the high risk area of the Indian Ocean, increased vigilance, and ship protection measures such as the installation of barbed wire and citadels. An increasing acceptance of the presence of private armed guards aboard vessels has been one of the most controversial counter-piracy methods introduced in the Indian Ocean. But it seems to have been an effective deterrent and, despite concerns about the risk to innocent fishermen and other seafarers who may be mistaken for pirates, some governments, including the US and UK administrations, have been reassured by the oft-repeated phrase that no ship with private armed guards on board has been successfully hijacked.  On-land change needed It is the efforts being made at sea – by international navies and the shipping industry – which have thus far had the biggest success in curtailing pirate activity emanating from Somalia. These gains should be celebrated, but their limited nature must also be acknowledged. The chance of earning up to $6,000 for a few weeks' work as a pirate in a country where the average annual income is $600 will continue to be attractive to some until significant change occurs within Somalia. The availability of realistic employment opportunities to provide alternative livelihoods for many in Somalia’s coastal communities requires increased security on-land, to win the trust of investors in new business and at sea, to allow Somalia’s domestic fishing industry to flourish again.  An understanding of the need to introduce on-land initiatives in order to more permanently curb piracy is generally accepted by international governments, and the international community is gradually delivering on the comprehensive approach which was promised after 2012's Conference. New focus Recent efforts, such as a new maritime strategy for Somalia drafted in March by Somali leaders and representatives from the UN and African Union, and the promise of $2 million from a UN trust fund for counter-piracy projects, could make a significant difference. However, Somalia’s maritime security is not simply about piracy. In a recent speech to the UN, the President of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud, warned that ongoing illegal activity in Somalia’s waters allegedly carried out by international actors – including the dumping of toxic waste and illegal, unregulated and unreported fishing by foreign trawlers – would no longer be tolerated. If, as the President argues, the international community is to accept its 'legal and moral responsibility' to curb illegal maritime activity not carried out by Somalis, a truly international effort with a holistic approach is the only way to secure Somalia’s waters and the wider Indian Ocean. Expectations ran high ahead of 2012's London Somalia Conference and some commentators, particularly from the Somali diaspora, expressed disappointment afterwards that the meeting had focused too heavily on issues of piracy and terrorism, and not on factors such as chronic unemployment and food insecurity. The UK government has been keen to emphasize that the May 2013 Conference on Somalia is truly a combined effort, with Somalia’s government taking the lead in setting the agenda.  The plan to discuss a Somali-defined maritime strategy at this year’s conference shows a potential shift in international discourse about the Indian Ocean from an automatic association of Somalia with piracy towards an understanding of the need to support efforts to better protect and develop the country’s maritime space in a way that could benefit the entire region.  To comment on this article please contact Chatham House Feedback. More on Somalia. http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/191223 Tue, 07 May 2013 14:11:25 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/191221 This is a transcript of a speech made by Hon Tendai Biti, Minister of Finance, Republic of Zimbabwe, on 24 April 2013 at Chatham House. The speakers discussed the investment opportunities Zimbabwe presents, its pivotal role in southern Africa and the issues that need to be addressed to ensure solid economic growth. Event details http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/191221 Tue, 07 May 2013 13:57:33 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/191217   Subscribe to the Chatham House Podcast in iTunes | via RSS          Subscribe to Chatham House event audio in iTunes | via RSS   Finance Minister, Pravin Gordhan, will discuss South Africa's National Development Plan and efforts to overcome outstanding challenges and maintain South Africa's position as sub-Saharan Africa's largest economy. He will discuss the role of South Africa in enhancing regional development and the importance of developing stronger links with emerging economies globally. http://www.chathamhouse.org/audio-resource/191217 Tue, 07 May 2013 13:47:19 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/191215 This is a transcript of a speech made by Isaias Samakuva, President, National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA), on 29 April 2013 at Chatham House. The speaker gave his assessment of change in Angola over the last decade and discussed the role of his party in national transformation and in building democratic institutions and processes in Angola. Event details http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/191215 Tue, 07 May 2013 13:29:17 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/191209 In the lead-up to the international conference on Somalia in the UK, Chatham House held a consultation in April 2013 with 35 members of the Somali diaspora community, in order to facilitate an exchange of thoughts and debate around issues affecting the future of Somalia's state and governance structures. The meeting addressed matters of regional autonomy, decentralization and federalism.  http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/191209 Tue, 07 May 2013 12:10:32 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/191201 Having officially concluded its transitional period, Somalia is set to embark on another. Somalia and the international community face a critical test as the country seeks to exert greater control over policy development and implementation, in light of recent progress and its support for the 'New Deal' initiative. The requisite shift in the nature of international engagements will bring unavoidable risks for all stakeholders.  Optimism over Somalia's prospects has peaked after an accumulation of changes in the country over recent years. Initial hopes arose in 2011, when the African Union Mission in Somalia made military progress against the radical Islamist insurgency of al Shabaab. This was followed by the unrelated sharp decline of piracy attacks off the Somali coast during the course of 2012. Security gains were bolstered politically when Somalia’s eight-year transitional period finally ended with the establishment of a leaner Federal Parliament in August 2012, the election of a new president in September, and the formation of a fresh government from October onwards.  Building on progress The changes within Somalia were accompanied by important shifts in international engagement. This year, Somalia's federal government scored significant diplomatic points by gaining the formal recognition of the United States and the International Monetary Fund. It also saw a partial lifting of the arms embargo by the United Nations Security Council in March. Furthermore, during the first London Somalia Conference in February 2012, the international community pledged to forge a more coordinated and effective approach to support Somalia's reconstruction efforts – a pledge that was demonstrated with the establishment of a multi-donor Somalia Stability Fund.  Through the 2011 Busan Conference on Aid Effectiveness, which stipulates that more policy space should be given to fragile states, the G7+ group of 19 conflict-affected countries, lobbied the international community to allow for increased national ownership over setting and implementing political and development agendas. Somalia is part of this New Deal initiative and given its recent progress, implications of opening the policy space in the country are likely to feature strongly at the London-Somalia Conference. The New Deal reflects lessons from past, tried, trusted and failed international engagements with Somalia. Approaches shaped by international security concerns related to warlordism, piracy, terrorism, and migration over the needs of the Somali population and their state-making project have thus far achieved little beyond catalyzing new political forces and stimulating radical Islam. More generally, it has put regional and international actors in the driving seat and restricted Somali governments' policy space.  Deciding the priorities This restriction of national ownership has come at a great cost to Somalia, not least because it led to a neglect of other pressing challenges, such as the revival of a productive economy. Yet, the benefits of allowing for enhanced policy space in support of national development processes can be seen in the case of Somaliland. This self-styled republic unilaterally declared independence in May 1991 and faces its own challenges that are not wholly detached from international influences, constraints and pressures. However, Somaliland had its own, unintended version of the New Deal decades ago and has benefited from having had significant policy space to set and pursue its own agenda.  Allowing Somalia more policy space is crucial to resolving long-lasting crises, however there are numerous obstacles to realizing this New Deal. Security concerns remain, both for Somalia's neighbours and the international community, calling the latter's readiness to reduce direct influence into question. Moreover, skepticism remains over Somali stakeholders' ability to stay on track; past expectations on Somali partners have repeatedly been disappointed. Lastly, the international community needs to accept that state-making processes are inherently conflict-prone and that not all good things do and can necessarily go together in the context of state-making.  Yet, as the UN’s Secretary-General recently pointed out, 'we must be prepared to take risks for Somalia'. The risks associated with a Somali New Deal are likely to test the international community’s resolve, but if they are prepared to take risks and allow  for some necessary mistakes along the way, then the long-term benefits of increasing national policy space are likely to outweigh the perils.  To comment on this article please contact Chatham House Feedback. More on Somalia. http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/191201 Tue, 07 May 2013 10:00:46 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/191199 The priorities of the nascent Somali government include security, judicial reform and public financial management. Chief among those concerns is political stability and the long-term task of reconstructing the state. If progress is to be made on state-building, Somalia's government will need to revisit its relationships with influential regional and international partners. They in turn will need to provide the requisite support and space for the government to establish its authority outside of Mogadishu. The big questions The inauguration of the federal government of Somalia in August 2012 marked the start of the first permanent central government in the country since the collapse of Mohamed Siad Barre's regime in 1991. However, the long political transition and the hastily revised and ratified constitution have not resolved the big questions of Somalia's political future, such as the nature of the federal system and the central state’s relationship with existing and aspiring regions. Competition for power at local and regional levels, including from autonomous Puntland and secessionist Somaliland, is likely to characterize the next phase of politics in south-central Somalia.  Since taking office President Mohamud has repeatedly referenced the autonomy of Somalia's government and emphasized that it has moved beyond the transition. This is a positive message for Somalis to hear, and a caution to regional partners, who have a history of intervention in the country. Yet, despite its aspirations, the Somali government will continue to provide only relatively weak central authority: it is still dependent on external military support. Furthermore, the presence of soldiers from Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda in Somalia is an immediate reminder of the region's interest in Somalia's security.  Security in the Horn of Africa The interconnected nature of security in the Horn of Africa and the self-interested motivations of regional countries  to engage with Somalia need to be recognized. The armed forces of Ethiopia and Kenya have a significant influence in south-central Somalia, supporting a stretched African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and weak Somali national forces. Advances by AMISOM, Ethiopian forces and Somali national forces have led to the ousting of al Shabaab from fixed positions around Mogadishu, Afgooye, Kismaayo and in south-west Somalia.  These movements are too often reported as decisive defeats over al Shabaab, but this is an oversimplification. Under the AMISOM banner Kenya controls Kismaayo, the largest city and main port in the south. Kenya has been accused of trying to install a proxy regime in southern Jubbaland in order to preserve a buffer between Somali Islamists and the Kenyan border. Kenya supports Ahmed Islaan 'Madoobe', the Ogadeni leader of the Ras Kamboni militia, in the ongoing Kismaayo conference on the formation of a Jubbaland regional administration. This process was endorsed by the preceding government under the auspices of the Horn of Africa's regional body, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). However, it is against the wishes of President Mohamud and his government who have called this conference unconstitutional. Kenyan business and al Shabaab are benefiting from the sale of supplies of charcoal from Kismaayo port by the Ras Kamboni militia, even though exports of charcoal are banned by the Somali government and the United Nations.  Ethiopia has a history of intervention in Somalia, including the 2006 US-sponsored invasion that ousted the Islamic Courts Union and sparked the insurgency that led to the formation of al Shabaab. Ethiopia’s current unilateral intervention seeks to secure the Ogaden, its own Somali-speaking area. Ethiopian troops hold the Somali towns of Luuq, Baidoa and Beledweyne which are situated along strategic trade routes and until recently were under al Shabaab’s control. When Ethiopia pulled its troops out of the town of Hudur in March 2013, al Shabaab quickly reclaimed the town.  Ethiopia claims to be starting a phased withdrawal of its approximately 8,000 troops from Somalia. This could be a tactical maneuver expressing annoyance at what Ethiopia feels is a lack of burden sharing, as well as Kenya’s dominance over the Jubbaland process. AMISOM would be unable to cover an Ethiopian withdrawal from Somalia, and it would also obstruct the Somali government’s ability to establish authority in reclaimed areas. Competing visions Somalis are concerned that their neighbours are not intervening in good faith. Although regional military support is vital, it limits the new Somali government on the home front. The Somali government is suspicious that Ethiopia and Kenya are pushing federalism in order to see the establishment of regional administrations that are friendly to them. This would enable Ethiopia and Kenya to limit the power and legitimacy of the central government while exerting continued influence over Somali regions once their troops return home. President Mohamud's government is publicly signed up to a federal governance structure but favours a centralized authority, with power devolved to the regions. Ceding power too readily to regional administrations that it has little influence over would not serve the interests of an aspiring national government. There are high hopes for the new government among Somalis, but it will quickly lose legitimacy and respect if it cannot begin to deliver on political stability and state-building. Given the government's limited reach and capacity, regional and international players will determine whether the new government will succeed or fail in these endeavors. But in order for there to be sustained progress these actors would have to forgo self-interested engagements in support of the new Somali government's efforts to rebuild a nation with normalized regional relations.  To comment on this article please contact Chatham House Feedback. More on Somalia. http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/191199 Tue, 07 May 2013 09:41:58 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/191161 This is a summary of an event held at Chatham House on 26 June 2012. Participants explored Turkey's foreign policy objectives in the Horn of Africa and identified how Turkish engagement fits with the interests of leaders in the region. Focus was placed on the nature of Turkey's humanitarian assistance, business relations, educational provision and political engagement, with speakers examining Turkey’s capacity to deliver as much as is promised. Event details. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/191161 Fri, 03 May 2013 13:34:05 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/191149 Since its inception in 2000, the Democratic Alliance (DA) has been the official opposition to the ruling ANC in South Africa. In the 2009 elections the party won 77 parliamentary seats and took control of the Western Cape provincial government. At this event Lindiwe Mazibuko, the party's parliamentary leader, will discuss the DA's success in recent elections, its priorities and role in parliament, and perspectives on the economic, social and political challenges confronting South Africa. For more information please contact Chris Vandome. http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/191149 Thu, 02 May 2013 22:29:13 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/191147 Kenya's March elections were the most complex it has ever faced, and the country must now navigate new political relationships following the process of devolution and Uhuru Kenyatta's presidential victory.  At this launch of an International Crisis Group report, analyst Bryan Kahumbura will discuss Kenya's 2013 election process, and will identify the key post-election scenarios which will define the country's economic, social and political outlook in years to come. For more information please contact Chris Vandome http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/191147 Thu, 02 May 2013 22:25:00 +0100 Chatham House - Africa http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/191145 Angola has faced considerable challenges in its gradual transition to democracy since the end of the civil war in 2002. In recent years the country's democratic development has been galvanized by the emergence of new political parties. In 2012 the former foreign secretary of UNITA, Abel Chivukuvuku, left the opposition to form the Convergência Ampla de Salvação de Angola (CASA-CE) and contested last year's elections, winning 6 per cent of the national vote and almost 13 per cent in Luanda. At this Angola Forum roundtable, Mr Chivukuvuku will offer his insights into opposition politics in Angola. He will discuss the role that new parties play in Angola's evolving democracy, and how new parties to operate in the political space. For more information please contact Chris Vandome http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/191145 Thu, 02 May 2013 22:20:55 +0100 Chatham House - Africa