This research was supported by the UK Economic and Social Research Council (grant no. ES/J012696/1). The authors wish to express their gratitude to all those who contributed directly or indirectly, by their personal involvement or their encouragement, to the progress of the field research, as well as to Jane Kinninmont at Chatham House and to the anonymous readers for their helpful comments and critiques of earlier drafts of this paper. All interpretations remain the authors’ sole responsibility.