African Peace and Security

The number and intensity of armed conflicts has reduced in sub-Saharan Africa, but a threat from armed non-state actors remains, and an increase in organized crime and trafficking undermines institutions and stability.

The Africa Programme’s work on peace and security has focused on the stabilization of the Horn of Africa region, through the Horn of Africa project.

Growing instability in the western Sahel is also a key focus, with a number of activities taking place in support of more informed international responses. The crisis in Mali is just one dimension of an increasingly complex regional challenge including drug, human and other smuggling into Europe, radicalization, food scarcity and environmental degradation.

The report Stability and vulnerability in the Sahel: the regional roles and internal dynamics of Chad and Niger (edited and published by NOREF in April 2016) examines how deprivation and institutional weakness are potential drivers of instability in Chad and Niger, and highlights the importance of external partners to ensure security imperatives do not obscure the long-term necessity of a sustained focus on poverty reduction and good governance.

Insecurity centred on northern Nigeria is also of growing international concern, and is explored in detail through work on Nigeria.

The peace process in Mozambique is the subject of a 2019 research paper, Prospects for a Sustainable Elite Bargain in Mozambique: Third Time Lucky? and is also covered through the programme’s work on Southern Africa.

Research and events on maritime security help policy-makers, the commercial sector and others understand the changing dynamics of maritime security risk around the African coast.

The emergence of an African Peace and Security Architecture, and international engagements in support of continental capacity has been an important development. Given the dramatically changing security landscape in which it is expected to operate, focus will be placed on emerging plans for APSA’s future.

Research focus

Insecurity in the Horn of Africa
Maritime security in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Guinea
Western Sahel security dynamics
Security challenges in Nigeria
Conflict and instability in the Great Lakes region
Extractive industries and insecurity in West Africa
African Peace and Security Architecture

Project content

A special episode with HE Ambassador Bankole Adeoye, African Union (AU) Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS).

Cristóvão Artur Chume, defence minister of Mozambique, reflects on his efforts to reform and modernize his country’s military infrastructure in response to the conflict in northern Mozambique.

Ukraine draws focus away from Africa’s conflict hotspots, a key concern at the AU and UN Joint Strategic Assessment on Security in the Sahel high-level consultation.

The sudden end of the 30-year rule of President Idriss Déby Itno with his unexpected death leaves massive uncertainty hanging over the future of Chad itself.

Strengthening the social contract, tackling governance failures, and replacing a counterterrorism imperative with a focus on human security are long overdue in the Western Sahel.

Nigeria’s newly appointed service chiefs have a brief window of opportunity to change their strategic approach, embrace reform and move beyond past failures before old habits set in.

Nigeria is experiencing a powerful moment in its democratic journey, as anger and frustration pour out over allegations of police brutality.

Sudan is looking towards a brighter future after the initialling of the Juba peace agreement on August 31, an important first step towards bringing peace to the conflict zones and laying the foundation for democratic transition and economic reform throughout the country.

This coup was not unexpected as it followed months of mass protests against alleged corruption, a worsening economy and disputed elections.

Ethiopia is experiencing a turbulent transition. The uncompromising approach of political forces threatens to tear the country apart and reverse the hard-won gains made in recent years.

A papal visit will highlight the importance of the recently signed peace agreement between the government and opposition.

Sudan has a unique opportunity to embrace democratic transition but there is no room for complacency. Comprehensive reforms and a united democratic front will be key to achieving peace, freedom and justice, as will continued international pressure.

This paper examines how the deal to end civil conflict was achieved and highlights potential risks in the run-up to the October 2019 elections and beyond.

A mine clearance specialist in Angola preparing equipment used to look for unexploded ordnance, May 2012. Photo: Eye Ubiquitous/Contributor/Getty Images.

This publication draws on and updates the briefing note published following a meeting of the All- Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on Angola on 26 April 2017. It also incorporates insights from a Chatham House Africa Programme conference session on the legacies of the Angolan Civil War, held on 23 March 2018; and draws on the Africa Programme’s research into conservation-driven development models in Southern Africa.

Sudan has seen more change in the last four months than in the previous 30 years, and there is now a mixture of euphoria and caution about the future, following the removal of Omar Al Bashir.

There is an urgent need to address widespread failings in Nigeria’s security services, but so far President Buhari has not tackled these challenges.

The longer genuine political and economic reform is delayed in Sudan, the greater the risk of wider instability and deepening economic crisis.

The country still faces a plethora of problems that have ruined past peace efforts, and it is uncertain whether the latest peace deal will last. But there are steps that could be taken to make this more likely.

With a growing number of think-tanks worldwide, find out 12 things you should know about their history and what lies for them ahead.

A fresh insurrection by Biafra secessionists would plunge the country into deeper insecurity.

A wave of devastating attacks and reprisals in the southern part of the state is a chilling reminder of rural Nigeria’s vast security vulnerabilities and communal tensions.

The ongoing struggle for greater influence, inclusion, accountability and representation in northern Nigeria is central to understanding transformations in the region’s politics, especially in the context of its security challenges and a looming general election in 2015.

Member content

The rise of a radical jihadist group to international infamy

Past events

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This panel discussion explores perspectives on the war and discusses scenarios for its evolution and resolution.

A hybrid event in Addis Ababa reflecting on Mozambique’s 2019 peace agreement and the lessons it offers for the African Union’s ‘Silencing the Guns’ agenda by 2030.

Panellists discuss the priorities for promoting the agency of women in politics and peacebuilding in Ethiopia and approaches for combatting gender-based discrimination and violence.