Russia’s future

This project seeks to understand the post-war future of Russia and planning for change after Putin.

The February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine resulted in Russia’s further isolation on the global scene, the increased repression of its own citizens, and further consolidation of Putin’s grip on the country.

Understanding how Russia will be transformed by the war and whether a change of regime is possible – or even imminent – is an inevitably imprecise but vital task.  

This workstream explores the Russia that could emerge on the other side of the war. Research focuses on domestic developments, economic impacts and how the war is shaping Russia’s ability to project power and influence.

Project focus:

  • Outlooks for the medium- to long-term post-war future.
  • How is Russian domestic politics ‘made’? What are the key decision-making centres?
  • The long-term impact of sanctions.
  • The questions of end of regime and succession.
  • How should Western governments shape their strategy towards a post-Putin Russia?  
  • Russia and non-West: Kremlin’s aims and tools