Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018
Supply, demand and stability
The continuation of OPEC supply cuts, an increase in US shale oil production and low demand growth from Asian markets are altering strategic relationships and geopolitical power balances across global energy markets. At the same time, a persistently low oil price environment - relative to pre mid-2014 prices - and increased competition from other oil and gas producers, pose challenges for MENA region exporters, exposing vulnerabilities and fault lines at a critical moment when many of the region's energy producers are attempting to pursue long-term political and economic transitions.
The picture is further complicated by uncertainties prompted by an unpredictable Presidential administration in the US, with a variegated policy strategy towards the MENA region. In this context, the 2018 Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Energy conference will discuss market factors affecting oil and gas supply and demand globally as well as the political developments that will shape the region's long-term economic future.
The Chatham House Rule
To enable as open a debate as possible, this conference will be held under the Chatham House Rule.
Monday 29 January
Overview | Geopolitics and the MENA region
This opening discussion will explore how political developments are affecting strategic relations and power balances within the MENA region.
- What affect is the consolidation of domestic power in Saudi Arabia, and the kingdom’s interventionist foreign policy having on the region?
- How are diplomatic tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran affecting oil markets and energy investors?
- As the current US Presidential administration evolves, is a strategy expected to emerge in terms of its approach to the MENA region?
- Will Russia’s influence in the region continue to grow? If so, what are the geostrategic and economic goals that it is likely to pursue, and what will be the effects on energy markets?
Session One | Maintaining Stability and Managing Low Prices
Attempts by OPEC and its allies to rebalance global oil markets and raise prices through supply cuts appear to be having a mixed effect. This session will focus on contemporary political and market challenges of attempts to control supply and manage global oil prices.
- To what extent have recent oil price rises of 20 per cent since mid-October 2017 been driven by heightened political uncertainties rather than material changes in the supply and demand picture?
- Amidst increased pressure domestically for OPEC member states to expand production, can members continue to achieve consensus on production cuts beyond the current agreement?
- What effect is OPEC’s price control having on the economic diversification strategies of oil producers in the Middle East?
- Given the volume of Russian oil production and reserves, how important will coordination between OPEC and Russia be moving forward? What will this look like?
- Are international oil companies (IOCs) and national oil companies (NOCs) investing in spite of lower revenues?
Session Two | Changing Demand for Oil
The implications of a long-term global shift away from fossil fuels will require new strategies for MENA producers with large low-cost reserves. This panel will focus on the implications of this shift and ask where future growth in oil demand might come from, with a focus on current dynamics in key Asian markets.
- How will the implementation of international agreements to mitigate climate change affect global oil demand?
- How will technological advances in energy efficiency affect future oil demand?
- What will be the impact of domestic price reform?
- If oil’s share of the global energy mix declines more rapidly than predicted, and the share of natural gas and renewables rises, what implications will this have for the MENA region?
- In what ways do economic links between MENA countries and key export markets in Asia, particularly in China and India, need to be strengthened and how can this be achieved?
- How will China’s industrial, economic and foreign policy, including the Belt and Road, impact on energy flows from MENA?
Session Three | Gas Deficits, Demand and Supply
Investing in gas reserves and infrastructure will be vital to the region’s economic diversification and its move away from oil export dependency. This panel will look at the prospects for liquefied natural gas (LNG) regionally and assess the potential impacts of changes in pricing and global demand on producing countries.
- How can MENA gas producers reconfigure terms of investment and pricing frameworks to encourage IOC investment and know-how needed to unlock reserves?
- What will be the impact of Qatar lifting the moratorium on North Field developments?
- What role will LNG play in improving regional economic competitiveness caused by rising domestic energy demand and intensity in industrial, commercial and residential sectors?
- How might the COP 21 Paris Agreement impact the prospects for the gas sector in the MENA region? Is there an opportunity for natural gas to significantly develop while transitions within renewables and energy efficiency progress? What structural impact might this have on energy markets?
- What will the trade of gas look like in the future? Will the market become more global? How will this affect MENA exporters?
- If other producers – Russia, the United States, Canada, Australia – can add LNG into global markets by the million tons, what impact could this have on price and strategies in countries such as Qatar, Egypt, Oman, United Arab Emirates and Iran?
17:30 Close of day one and reception hosted by Chatham House
Tuesday 30 January
Session Four | Energy Transitions and Climate Action
The COP 21 Paris climate change agreement will require countries across the MENA region to adapt to meet nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and other obligations which will further shape future regional energy policies. This panel will also assess the economic opportunities offered by renewable energy in the region and prospects for future development.
- How are power and water sectors being transformed and efficiency improved? What role will renewable energy technologies play in the domestic energy mix in MENA countries?
- What can be done to accelerate private sector participation in renewables development? Solar and wind dominate, but what about other forms of clean energy such as geothermal, tidal and so on?
- How will the drive for renewable energy present changes and opportunities for IOCs and NOCs in the region?
- How will MENA countries adapt to meet NDCs as part of the Paris Agreement?
- What impact will these international obligations have on energy policies in the region?
Session Five | Future Economic and Political Dynamics
In the context of sustained low oil prices in the region and the impact on national budgets, this panel will assess policies to increase economic diversification. It will also address what options are open to the region’s energy exporting countries to reform their economies given continued security risks and regional tensions.
- Is there sufficient appetite for economic reform within the current political climate?
- What political and economic challenges are demographic changes across the Gulf creating? What is the potential for job creation in the region?
- What will be the effect of the privatization of some domestic energy sectors?
- What is the security outlook across the MENA region? What will be the long-term implications of fragile states in Syria, Yemen and Libya and a weakening of state involvement in managing and developing their oil sectors?
- How might the conflict in the GCC change regional energy politics, particularly gas exports from Qatar?
13:30 End of conference
© The Royal Institute of International Affairs 2017
Vice President of Business Development for Europe, Eurasia and Middle East, Chevron
Director of the Energy Bureau’s Office of the Middle East and Asia, US Department of State
President and CEO, GE Middle East, North Africa & Turkey
Chief Executive Officer, Crescent Petroleum
Senior Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources, Chatham House
Associate Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources, Chatham House
Director, Energy Center, SKOLKOVO Business School and Head of Research, Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERI RAS)
Chief Economist for the Middle East, Citi
Professor Paul Stevens
Distinguished Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources, Chatham House
Pricing and booking information
Register by Friday 24 November 2017 to benefit from the early booking rate.
Ways to book:
- Phone: Call Georgia Dalton on +44 (0)20 7314 2785
- Online: Click here to complete the online registration form
- Email / Post: Download a PDF registration form, complete and return to Charlotte Laycock via email or post: Chatham House, 10 St. James’s Square, London, SW1Y 4LE
EARLY RATE (+VAT):
|FULL RATE (+VAT): |
AFTER 24 NOVEMBER
|Partners and major corporate members|
|Standard corporate members|
|NGOs and academics||£440||£540|
|NGOs and academics||£490||£595|
Your delegate pass includes:
- Conference attendance
- Lunch and refreshments
Travel and accommodation are not included. View a list of recommended hotels here.
If you are interested in becoming a sponsor for this event, please contact Adam Bowie on
+44 (0) 20 7957 5732
10 St James's Square
Telephone: +44 (0)20 7314 2785
Fax: +44 (0)20 7957 5710
If you wish to book the venue for your own event please phone +44 (0)20 7314 2764
The nearest tube station is Piccadilly Circus which is on the Piccadilly and the Bakerloo Underground lines. From Piccadilly follow Regent Street southwards towards Pall Mall and take the first road on the right called Jermyn Street. Duke of York Street is the second road on the left and leads to St James's Square. Chatham House is immediately on your right.
Although we cannot book accommodation for delegates, we have arranged a reduced rate at some nearby hotels, where you can book your own accommodation. Please inform the hotel that you will be attending a conference at Chatham House (The Royal Institute of International Affairs) to qualify for the Institute's reduced rate.
Please note all rates are subject to availability.
13 Half Moon Street
London - W1J 7BH
Tel: + 44 (0)20 7499 2964
Fax: + 44 (0)20 7499 1817
Classic Double without breakfast: £195 +VAT
The Cavendish London
81 Jermyn Street
London - SW1U 6JF
Tel: + 44 (0)20 7930 2111
Fax: + 44 (0)20 7839 2125
Classic Room without breakfast: £205 +VAT
The Stafford London
St James's Place
London - SW1A 1NJ
Tel: 020 7493 0111
Fax: 020 7493 7121
Classic Queen without breakfast: £247 +VAT
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