Conference

Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018

Supply, demand and stability

29 Jan 2018 - 09:30 to 30 Jan 2018 - 13:30

Chatham House

Overview

The extension of OPEC led supply cuts, an increase in US shale oil production and low demand growth from Asian markets are altering strategic relationships and geopolitical power balances across global energy markets. At the same time, a low oil price environment - relative to pre mid-2014 prices - and increased competition from other oil and gas producers, pose challenges for MENA region exporters, exposing vulnerabilities and fault lines at a critical moment when many of the region's energy producers are attempting to pursue long-term political and economic transitions.

The picture is further complicated by geopolitical uncertainties prompted by leadership change in Saudi Arabia, instability in Iran and an unpredictable Presidential administration in the US, with a variegated policy strategy towards the MENA region. In this context, the 2018 Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Energy conference will discuss market factors affecting oil and gas supply and demand globally as well as the political developments shaping markets and the region's long-term economic future. 

The Chatham House Rule 

To enable as open a debate as possible, this conference will be held under the Chatham House Rule.

Twitter 
@CH_Events
#CHMenaEnergy

 

Monday 29 January
0930

Welcome and chair's opening remarks
Dr Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House

Overview | Geopolitics and the MENA Region
0940 - 1045

This opening discussion will explore the political developments affecting strategic relations and power balances within the MENA region.

  • As the current US presidential administration evolves, is a strategy emerging in terms of its approach to the MENA region? 
  • What effects are the consolidation of domestic power in Saudi Arabia and the Kingdom’s interventionist foreign policy having on the region?
  • What geopolitical risks could the current instability in Iran bring to the region? 
  • How will Russia’s influence in the region develop? What are the strategic goals that it is likely to prioritize and what will be the effects on energy markets?

Moderator
Dr Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House

Panellists
Alan Eyre, Director of the Energy Bureau’s Office of the Middle East and Asia, US Department of State
Ellie Geranmayeh, Senior Policy Fellow (MENA), European Council on Foreign Relations
Denis Chaibi, Head of the Task Force Iran, European Union External Action
Tatiana Mitrova, Director, Energy Center, SKOLKOVO Business School and Head of Research, Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Questions and discussion

1045 In Conversation | Perspectives on Exploration and Production Potential in the MENA Region (on the record)

Claudio Descalzi, CEO, Eni
Chair: Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House

1115 - 1145 Refreshments

Session One | Maintaining Stability and Managing Prices
1145 - 1315

Attempts by OPEC and its allies to rebalance global oil markets and raise prices through supply cuts appear to have helped tighten the market. This session will focus on contemporary political and market challenges to attempts to control supply and manage global oil prices.

  • To what extent have recent oil price rises been driven by political uncertainties rather than changes to oil supply?
  • Will the extension of OPEC-led supply cuts through to the end of 2018 have the intended effect? How can the agreement be unwound? Could it be extended? 
  • What will be the cost to their global competitiveness and economic diversification strategies if OPEC producers keep oil prices at their desired level?
  • How are the dynamics of the prospective Aramco listing influencing Saudi Arabia’s strategy towards managing supply and prices? 
  • What levels of capital expenditure can be expected by international oil companies (IOCs) and national oil companies (NOCs) at current prices? 

Chair
Paul Stevens, Distinguished Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources, Chatham House

Ministerial address (on the record)
HE Jabar Ali al-Luaibi, Minister of Oil, Iraq

Questions and discussion

Speakers
Abdulla Al Qadi, Exploration & Production Executive Director, Crescent Petroleum
Kamel Ben Naceur, Chief Economist, ADNOC Group 
Ed Rawle, Chief Economist, Wood Mackenzie
Carole Nakhle, CEO, Crystol Energy

Questions and discussion

1315 - 1415 Lunch

Session Two | Changing Demand for Oil
1415 - 1530

The implications of a long-term global shift away from fossil fuels will require new strategies for MENA producers with large low-cost reserves. This panel will focus on the implications of this shift and ask where future growth in oil demand might come from, with a focus on current dynamics in key Asian markets. 

  • How will advances in energy technology affect future oil demand?
  • In what ways do economic links between MENA countries and key export markets in Asia, particularly in China and India, need to be strengthened and how can this be achieved? 
  • How will the implementation of international agreements to mitigate climate change affect global oil demand? 
  • If oil’s share of the global energy mix declines more rapidly than predicted, and the share of natural gas and renewables rises, what implications will this have for the MENA region? 
  • Where are the future centres of oil demand? For example how will China’s economic ambitions in Asia and beyond affect oil demand and energy exports from MENA producers?

Chair
Javier Blas, Chief Energy Correspondent, Bloomberg

Speakers
Bob Dastmalchi, Vice President of Business Development for Europe, Eurasia and Middle East, Chevron
Coby van der Linde, Director, Clingendael International Energy Programme, and Member of the International Advisory Board, KAPSARC
Ali Al-Saffar, Energy Analyst, World Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency 
Simone Pugliese, COO, Kayrros

Questions and discussion

1530 - 1600 Refreshments

Session Three | Prospects for Gas
1600 - 1730

In a time of rising supply, this panel will look at the prospects for natural gas and assess the potential impacts of changes in pricing and global demand on the MENA regions gas producers.

  • Natural gas is predicted to account for a quarter of global energy demand by 2040. How will this shift affect power balances among global gas producers and what are the implications for the MENA region?
  • Rising supply and growth in US exports is giving more power to buyers, changing the dynamics of the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. In what ways is this increased competition affecting MENA exporters?  
  • There is increasing cooperation and joint working between Asian LNG importers - the biggest market for MENA gas exports - in areas such as shipping, storage and to secure more flexible contracts. How are Asian markets changing and with what impact on exporting countries? 
  • How will investment strategies and business models in the MENA region need to adapt to these new realities? 
  • How can MENA gas producers reconfigure terms of investment and pricing frameworks to encourage the international investment and input needed to unlock gas reserves? 

Chair
Bassam Fattouh, Director, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Keynote address
HE Yury Sentyurin, Secretary General, Gas Exporting Countries Forum 

Moderated discussion

Moderator

Bassam Fattouh, Director, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Panellists
HE Yury Sentyurin, Secretary General, Gas Exporting Countries Forum 
Maria van der Hoeven, Senior Fellow, Clingendael International Energy Programme
Melanie Kenderdine, Principal, Energy Futures Initiative and Non-resident Fellow, Atlantic Council
Guy Broggi, Senior LNG Advisor, Total (2012 – 17) 

Questions and discussion

1730 End of day one and reception hosted by Chatham House

Tuesday 30 January 
0930

Session Four | Renewables and the Energy Transition
0930 - 1045

From the opening of the world’s largest concentrated solar plant in Morocco to the recent announcement of the $500 billion NEOM project in Saudi Arabia, ambitious projects are being planned and developed across the MENA region to maximize the economic opportunities offered by renewable energy. This panel will assess the landscape of renewable energy in the region and prospects for further development.

  • What kind of structural reforms of pricing mechanisms and regional energy markets are needed to open up more private sector participation and opportunities in renewables development?
  • How are partnerships between governments and the private sector enabling the development of transformative projects? 
  • What support and policy frameworks need to be put in place to attract private investment and international project finance?
  • What role will renewable energy technologies play in the future domestic energy mix in MENA countries? 
  • What impact will international climate change obligations have on energy policies in the region?

Chair
Seb Henbest, Head of EMEA and Lead Author, New Energy Outlook, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Speakers
Bruce Smith, Advisor and (acting) Director of Forecasting and Planning, Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Company
Sami Khoreibi, CEO, Enviromena Power Systems
Caroline Faasen, Senior Consultant, Energy Business Area, DNV GL
Glada Lahn, Senior Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources, Chatham House

Questions and discussion

1045 - 1115 Refreshments

Session Five | Economic and Political Transformations
1115 - 1300

In the context of recent low oil prices in the region and their impact on national budgets, this panel will assess policies to increase economic diversification. It will also address what options are open to the region’s energy exporting countries to reform their economies, create sectors for new employment and harness the potential of the next generation of citizens.

  • What has been the impact of recent economic reforms? What further actions need to be taken to increase investment, diversification and job creation?  
  • Is there sufficient appetite for economic reform within the current political and security climate?
  • What political and economic challenges are demographic changes across the Gulf creating?  
  • Into which sectors can the region attract greater international investment? Which future projects can provide the biggest growth opportunities?

Chair
Tim Eaton, Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

Keynote address
Mustafa Sanalla, Chairman, National Oil Corporation, Libya 

Questions and discussion

Chair
Valérie Marcel, Associate Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources, Chatham House

Speakers
Fahad Alturki, Chief Economist and Head of Research, Jadwa Investment 
Farouk Soussa, Chief Economist for the Middle East, Citi 
Jessica Obeid, Academy Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources, Chatham House​
Tim Callen, Mission Chief for Saudi Arabia, International Monetary Fund 

Questions and discussion

1300 End of conference and lunch

© The Royal Institute of International Affairs 2018

Keynote speaker

Speakers

Fahad Alturki to speak at Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018 conference

Fahad Alturki

Chief Economist and Head of Research, Jadwa Investment

Abdulla Al Qadi to speak at the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018 conference

Abdulla Al Qadi

Exploration & Production Executive Director, Crescent Petroleum

Ali Al-Saffar

Energy Analyst, World Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency

Javier Blas to speak at Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018 conference

Javier Blas

Chief Energy Correspondent, Bloomberg

Guy Broggi to speak at the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018 conference

Guy Broggi

Senior LNG Advisor, Total (2012 – 17)

Tim Callen to speak at Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018 conference

Tim Callen

Mission Chief for Saudi Arabia, International Monetary Fund

Denis Chaibi to speak at Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018 conference

Denis Chaibi

Head of the Task Force Iran, European Union External Action

Bob Dastmalchi to speak at Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018 conference

Bob Dastmalchi

Vice President of Business Development for Europe, Eurasia and Middle East, Chevron

Tim Eaton

Tim Eaton

Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

Alan Eyre to speak at the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018 conference

Alan Eyre

Director of the Energy Bureau’s Office of the Middle East and Asia, US Department of State

Caroline Faasen to speak at Chatham House Middle East and North Africa 2018 conference

Caroline Faasen

Senior Engineer, Renewable Advisory DNV GL

Bassam Fattouh to speak at Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018 conference

Bassam Fattouh

Director, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Ellie Geranmayeh to speak at Chatham House Europe and its Neighbourhood 2017 conference

Ellie Geranmayeh

Senior Policy Fellow (MENA), European Council on Foreign Relations

Seb Henbest to speak at Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018 conference

Seb Henbest

Head of EMEA and Lead Author, New Energy Outlook, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Maria van der Hoeven to speak at the Chatham House MENA Energy2018 conference

Maria van der Hoeven

Senior Fellow, Clingendael International Energy Programme

Melanie Kenderdine to speak at Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018 conference

Melanie Kenderdine

Principal, Energy Futures Initiative and Non-resident Fellow, Atlantic Council

Sami Khoreibi to speak at Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018 conference

Sami Khoreibi

Chief Executive Officer, Enviromena Power Systems

Glada Lahn

Senior Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources, Chatham House

Coby van der Linde to speak at Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018 conference

Coby van der Linde

Director, Clingendael International Energy Programme; Member of the International Advisory Board, KAPSARC

Valérie Marcel

Associate Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources, Chatham House

Tatiana Mitrova to speak at Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018 conference

Tatiana Mitrova

Director, Energy Center, SKOLKOVO Business School and Head of Research, Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERI RAS)

Kamel Ben Naceur to speak at Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Energy conference 2018

Kamel Ben Naceur

Chief Economist, ADNOC Group

Carole Nakhle to speak at Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018 conference

Carole Nakhle

CEO, Crystol Energy

Dr Robin Niblett to speak at Chatham House Europe and its Neighbourhood conference 2017

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Director, Chatham House

Jessica Obeid to speak at the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018 conference

Jessica Obeid

Academy Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Department, Chatham House

Simone Pugliese to speak at the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018 conference

Simone Pugliese

COO, Kayrros

Ed Rawle to speak at Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018 conference

Ed Rawle

Chief Economist, Wood Mackenzie

Bruce Smith to speak at Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018 conference

Bruce Smith

Advisor and (acting) Director of Forecasting and Planning, Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Company

Farouk Soussa to speak at Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018 conference

Farouk Soussa

Chief Economist for the Middle East, Citi

Professor Paul Stevens

Professor Paul Stevens

Distinguished Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources, Chatham House

 

Pricing and booking information 

Ways to book:

  1. Phone: Call Georgia Dalton on +44 (0)20 7314 2785
  2. Online: Click here to complete the online registration form
  3. Email / Post: Download a PDF registration form, complete and return to Louisa Troughton via email or post: Chatham House, 10 St. James’s Square, London, SW1Y 4LE
  RATE (+VAT): 
  
Partners and major corporate members 
All organizations£645
Standard corporate members 
Commercial organizations£1,390
Government departments£820
NGOs and academics£540
Non-members 
Commercial organizations£1,535
Government departments£920
NGOs and academics£595

Your delegate pass includes:

  • Conference attendance
  • Documentation
  • Lunch and refreshments

Travel and accommodation are not included. View a list of recommended hotels here.

Sponsors

Crescent Petroleum to sponsor the Chatham House MENA Energy 2017 conference   Chevron Logo Shell to sponsor Chatham House Energy Transitions 2016 conference
If you are interested in becoming a sponsor for this event, please contact Adam Bowie on
+44 (0) 20 7957 5732

Supporting partners

Media partners

Argus to partner with Chatham House on the MENA Energy 2016 conference African Energy to partner with Chatham House on MENA Energy 2018  Gulf States News to partner with Chatham House on MENA Energy 2018  Natural Gas World to partner with Chatham House on its Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018 conference

Interfax Energy to partner with Chatham House on its Middle East and North Africa Energy 2018 conference   OxGaps to partner with Chatham House on the Middle East and North Africa Energy 2017 conference Oxford Business Group

MEES Media Partner of MENA Energy 2016 conference MENAFN Worldoils

If you are interested in becoming a media partner for this event, please contact 
Ayesha Arif on +44 (0)20 7957 5753

Venue

Chatham House
10 St James's Square
London
SW1Y 4LE
UK
[email protected]

Telephone: +44 (0)20 7314 2785
Fax: +44 (0)20 7957 5710

If you wish to book the venue for your own event please phone +44 (0)20 7314 2764

Directions
The nearest tube station is Piccadilly Circus which is on the Piccadilly and the Bakerloo Underground lines. From Piccadilly follow Regent Street southwards towards Pall Mall and take the first road on the right called Jermyn Street. Duke of York Street is the second road on the left and leads to St James's Square. Chatham House is immediately on your right.

Map

Accommodation
Although we cannot book accommodation for delegates, we have arranged a reduced rate at some nearby hotels, where you can book your own accommodation. Please inform the hotel that you will be attending a conference at Chatham House (The Royal Institute of International Affairs) to qualify for the Institute's reduced rate.

Please note all rates are subject to availability.

Flemings Mayfair
13 Half Moon Street
Mayfair
London - W1J 7BH

Tel: + 44 (0)20 7499 2964
Fax: + 44 (0)20 7499 1817
[email protected]

Classic Double without breakfast: £195 +VAT

The Cavendish London
81 Jermyn Street
London - SW1U 6JF

Tel: + 44 (0)20 7930 2111
Fax: + 44 (0)20 7839 2125
[email protected] 

Classic Room without breakfast: £205 +VAT

Book The Cavendish online

The Stafford London 
St James's Place
London - SW1A 1NJ

Tel: 020 7493 0111
Fax: 020 7493 7121
[email protected]

Classic Queen without breakfast: £247 +VAT
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Press registration

This conference will be held under the Chatham House Rule. Information for journalists.

Press can request a press pass.

Contact us 

For enquiries relating to the conference agenda or sponsorship please call Adam Bowie on 
+44 (0) 20 7957 5732

For registration enquiries please call Georgia Dalton on +44 (0)20 7314 2785

For general enquiries please email [email protected]