A Global Role for Renminbi and Shanghai: Is China Truly Ready?
China seeks to promote the renminbi (RMB) as an international vehicle currency and Shanghai as a first-tier international financial centre. The existence of economies of scale in the global use of a currency and in the global use of a financial market means that there can only be two or three international vehicle currencies, and two or three first-tier international financial centres.
The speaker will argue that the biggest challenges facing China as it seeks to achieve these objectives are avoiding the middle-income trap, and increasing the openness, sophistication, and safety of its financial markets.
The speaker will also argue that the rise of India poses a risk to China’s plans and unless China can significantly increase its relative economic size and financial power in the next fifteen years, the RMB and Shanghai are unlikely to exceed the present international status of the yen and Tokyo by 2050.
Attendance at this event is by invitation only.
The Chatham House Rule
To enable as open a debate as possible, this event will be held under the Chatham House Rule.