Past eventInvitation OnlyResearch Event

Trade Scenarios after Brexit: Implications for the UK, the EU and the US

12 December 2017 - 8:15am to 9:30am

Chatham House, London


Ambassador Charles Ries, Vice President, RAND International
Dr Marco Hafner, Senior Economist, RAND Europe
Chair: Jim Rollo, Deputy Director, UK Trade Policy Observatory and Associate Fellow, Global Economy and Finance Department, Chatham House



For the last 44 years, the UK’s trade policy has been negotiated collectively by the EU, and for some supporters of Brexit, creating an independent trade policy was an important motivation for leaving the EU. What will be the principles guiding such a policy, and what are the associated key risks and opportunities?

In this session, the speaker will present the findings from a new RAND report, which explores eight different trade scenarios involving the UK, EU and US after Brexit. The analysis shows that under any scenario, the UK will be economically worse-off outside of the EU, but the key question for the UK is how much worse-off it will be post-Brexit? The study uses game theory insights to highlight the variety of factors that might affect the outcome of Brexit negotiations and analyses the potential implications of Brexit on the economic, political and security interests of the US.

This event is part of a series run by the Chatham House Europe Programme on ‘Britain and Europe: The Post-Referendum Agenda’. 

Attendance at this event is by invitation only.