Monday 16 October
09:10
Session One | The Belt and Road: building new economic, trade and financial connections
09:10 - 11:15
Since the launch of the ‘Belt and Road’ in 2013, China’s political and economic ambitions for developing the initiative have only been broadly defined. In parallel with the official aim that it will support sustainable development, motivations include the promotion of outward investment by Chinese firms, increasing trade with other emerging ‘Silk Road’ economies, and providing an outlet for excess industrial and investment capacity for Chinese firms and financial institutions. This session will focus on the potential for disruption of existing trade and financial relations and how the Belt and Road initiative may foster new economic, business and geopolitical dynamics in the region.
Welcome and chair’s opening remarks
Dr Linda Yueh, Fellow in Economics, St Edmund Hall, University of Oxford and Adjunct Professor of Economics, London Business School
Speakers (on the record)
Zhu Qin, Minister and Deputy Head of Mission, Embassy of the People’s Republic of China to the UK
Lord Jim O’Neill, Chairman, City Growth Commission, and Commercial Secretary to the Treasury (2015 -16)
Questions and discussion
Panel discussion
Moderator
Tim Summers, Senior Consulting Fellow, Asia Programme, Chatham House
Panellists
Jonathan E Hillman, Fellow and Director of the Reconnecting Asia Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Jinny Yan, Chief China Economist, ICBC Standard Bank
Questions and discussion
11:15 - 11:45 Refreshments
Session Two | Infrastructure investment and China’s changing role in development finance
11:45 - 13:00
There is currently a gap of roughly $1 trillion from present funding levels to meet the infrastructure funding needs of countries in the intended sphere of the Belt and Road. This is despite engagement from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). Central and East Asia remain among the most significant regions constituting this gap. China has taken important steps to address this through the chartering of two development banks, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the New Development Bank (NDB), which also have complementary goals to the Belt and Road. This session will discuss the following issues:
- The roles of multilateral and bilateral development finance: how to promote complementarity and minimize rivalry among development banks to plug the infrastructure investment gap
- The role of markets – including international financial centres such as London – in financing large-scale infrastructure projects
- Who needs to borrow and who needs to lend? Developing a corporate bond market in the region
- The role of green finance and green bonds in leveraging additional finance
Chair
Stefania Palma, Asia Editor, The Banker
Speakers
Yasuyuki Sawada, Chief Economist and Director General, Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, Asian Development Bank
Tim Summers, Senior Consulting Fellow, Asia Programme, Chatham House
Dr Frans-Paul van der Putten, Senior Research Fellow, Clingendael
Ekaterina Miroshnik, Director and Head of Infrastructure for Russia and Central Asia, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
Tom Miller, Senior Asia Analyst and Managing Editor, CEQ, Gavekal
Questions and discussion
13:00 - 14:00 Lunch
Session Three | International engagement: perceptions, realities, risks, and challenges
14:00 - 15:30
This session will assess how the Belt and Road is currently perceived and engaged with by international governments and institutions. It will also examine what steps are being considered by these actors that might facilitate or impede international cooperation with China on project development.
- How does the Belt and Road initiative fit into the strategic interests and economic goals of countries in ASEAN, Central Asia and Europe?
- How will the UK government’s strategy for economic engagement with China affect UK involvement in Belt and Road projects?
- What constitutes a Belt and Road project and what are the routes into these projects for non-Chinese companies?
- To what extent will the EU’s rules-based system – on issues including environmental sustainability and project transparency – affect the shape and design of Belt and Road projects?
Chair
Tanya Beckett, Journalist, BBC
Speakers
Lord James Sassoon, Executive Director, Jardine Matheson Holdings, and Chairman, China Britain Business Council
HE Dr Rizal Sukma, Ambassador of the Republic of Indonesia to the United Kingdom and Ireland
Yerzhan Saltybayev, Director, Institute of World Economics and Politics
Questions and discussion
15:30 - 16:00 Afternoon refreshments
Session Four | Engaging business: scaling up sustainable investment
16:00 - 17:15
China has expressed an interest in developing the Belt and Road as a framework for international investment, where Western corporates and investors can partner with Chinese institutions to deliver projects. Given the large size of the initiative, China will need significant international funding commitments to successfully develop these projects. This session will examine what steps have already been taken in that direction, how such partnerships could be structured and what obstacles will have to be overcome.
- What mechanisms are in place, or are needed, to enable the Belt and Road to address problems commonly encountered in large-scale infrastructure projects, including political and environmental risks?
- How will the levels of financing required for Belt and Road ventures affect demand for the renminbi in international financial centres?
- How can cooperation between Western and Chinese firms on Belt and Road projects contribute towards the development of international financial accounting and reporting standards, including for sustainable infrastructure and green finance?
- Are private finance models suitable for constructing Belt and Road projects and are they compatible with green finance?
- How can the relationship between private investors, multilateral development banks and the Chinese government be managed to maximize the amount of financing available? How can cooperation between these actors help increase the number of bankable projects, and avoid the crowding out of private financing?
Chair
Edward Baker, Senior Policy Advisor, Climate and Energy Transition, Principles for Responsible Investment
Speakers
Alison Hoare, Senior Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources, Chatham House
Sue Anne Tay, Director, China and RMB Internationalisation, Group Strategy, HSBC
Huw Jenkins, Consultant, Clifford Chance
Barry Hembling, Partner, Fladgate
Questions and discussion
17:15 End of conference and reception hosted by Chatham House
© The Royal Institute of International Affairs 2017
