A stronger US dollar, high interest rates and a sharp slowing of the Chinese economy have all contributed to a worsening economic outlook for global emerging economies. Furthermore, the grain price shocks caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has increased political instability across large swathes of the Global South and causing a sharp rise in the number of countries experiencing serious levels of debt distress, even default risk. The renewed Israel-Palestine conflict will likely bring further instability.
But the situation might be better than many investors feared. Emerging market bonds appear to have rallied in 2023 – admittedly from relatively weak positions – global interest rates have largely stabilized, and important emerging market players, such as Nigeria and Kenya, have recovered from debt distress.
This discussion will cover questions including:
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What is the growth/risk outlook for the two big emerging economies – China and India?
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How far will deglobalization go and how could this affect emerging economies?
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What are other key risks for emerging economies?
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What is likely to be the continuing impact of the war in Ukraine and conflict in the Middle East?
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How far can or will these risks be addressed through multilateral economic cooperation?
