Business Briefing: Emerging market risk outlooks

A conversation on emerging market risk with David Lubin, Associate Fellow at Chatham House and Head of Emerging Markets at Citi.

Partner and major corporate event, Roundtable
18 October 2023 — 8:00AM TO 9:15AM
Chatham House

A stronger US dollar, high interest rates and a sharp slowing of the Chinese economy have all contributed to a worsening economic outlook for global emerging economies. Furthermore, the grain price shocks caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has increased political instability across large swathes of the Global South and causing a sharp rise in the number of countries experiencing serious levels of debt distress, even default risk. The renewed Israel-Palestine conflict will likely bring further instability.

But the situation might be better than many investors feared. Emerging market bonds appear to have rallied in 2023 – admittedly from relatively weak positions  global interest rates have largely stabilized, and important emerging market players, such as Nigeria and Kenya, have recovered from debt distress.

This discussion will cover questions including:

  • What is the growth/risk outlook for the two big emerging economies – China and India?

  • How far will deglobalization go and how could this affect emerging economies?

  • What are other key risks for emerging economies?

  • What is likely to be the continuing impact of the war in Ukraine and conflict in the Middle East?

  • How far can or will these risks be addressed through multilateral economic cooperation?