Business Briefing: Geopolitical risks to global energy security

Please join us for an in-depth conversation with Eirik Waerness, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Equinor.

Partner and major corporate event Invitation only
24 April 2024 — 8:00AM TO 9:15AM
Chatham House

Geopolitics has been a critical driver of volatility in global energy markets over the past three years, interacting in multiple ways with the urgent need to achieve net zero. Russia retaliated against unprecedented G7 sanctions taken in response to its invasion of Ukraine by cutting gas supplies to Europe by some 80% and contributing to European gas prices rising more than 15 times compared with the start of 2021. The West’s innovative “oil price cap” designed to square the circle of limiting Russian state energy revenues whilst getting sufficient oil supply on to the global market is proving hard to sustain. Green transparency in asset prices has become a political football in US politics. Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea linked to the Israel-Hamas war have pushed up shipping insurance costs.

While gas prices are now back to pre-war levels and the oil price is hovering at around $90 compared with its post Ukraine peak of $120, the heightened threat from geopolitics to stability in global energy markets remains.

Questions to be discussed will include:

  • What are the key international flash points which might affect global energy markets in the near term, including developments in Ukraine and the middle east?
  • How is geopolitics influencing future energy scenarios and the probability of a ‘walls’ rather than ‘bridges’ outcome?
  • What should governments and corporates do to manage the impact of geopolitics on global energy markets and their future energy security?
  • How can strengthened multilateral economic cooperation play a role in managing the impact of geopolitical shocks on energy security? What are the chances of this happening?