Azerbaijan: what kind of state has it become?

Experts discuss the political situation in Azerbaijan.

Research event, Panel Invitation only
31 January 2024 — 1:00PM TO 2:30PM
Chatham House

In the tightly controlled snap election scheduled for 7 February, President Ilham Aliyev is seeking his fifth consecutive term in office. Azerbaijan’s military takeover of Nagorny Karabakh has bolstered Aliyev’s image at home. But with ‘mission accomplished’, could the population turn their attention to other dimensions of the social contract, such as economy and governance?

The military takeover of Karabakh and Baku’s unwillingness to provide guarantees for Karabakh Armenians, most of whom have fled to Armenia, have set a dangerous precedent for the region. The military operation also signalled Azerbaijan’s increased confidence thanks to Turkey’s backing and higher gas exports to Europe. This event will take stock of the political situation in Azerbaijan, focusing on the following questions:

Key questions for discussion include:

  • How has the news of the snap election been received in the country?

  • What is the latest on the regime’s persecution of critics?

  • How has Russia’s war on Ukraine changed Azerbaijan’s international position?

  • What are the prospects for Russian presence in the region?

  • How has the relationship between Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan evolved in the past year?

  • What are the prospects for regional security after Azerbaijan’s military takeover of Karabakh and the exodus of Karabakh Armenians?

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