Peru 2006: Election Results and Scenarios
John Crabtree, Research Associate, St Antony's College Oxford
Chair: Mike Mecham OBE
Chatham House Latin America & the Caribbean Research Project and the Peru Support Group.
This electoral year promises to be a crucial one for Latin America as over a dozen of the region's countries go to the polls. With the recent election of indigenous leader Evo Morales in neighbouring Bolivia, the spotlight is firmly on the Andean region. In Peru itself Alejandro Toledo's outgoing administration has been widely regarded as something of a lame duck, despite the relatively successful conclusion of the Truth Commission report into army and Shining Path violence and the achievement of a reasonably stable macroeconomic situation.
The wildcard candidacy of former military figure and ardent nationalist Ollanta Humala threatened in late 2005 to inject an even more uncertain note into Peru's traditionally unpredictable electoral contest; although right wing candidate Lourdes Flores is still generally considered the favourite. Will Peru follow in the footsteps of neighbouring Chile by electing a female president? What will be the consequences of this election for Peru's poor majority, for indigenous politics and for the economic and human rights situation in the country? Just days after the first round of the electoral contest, regional expert John Crabtree will begin to unravel for us some of the national and regional implications of Peru's eventual choice of president.
John Crabtree's most recent book, 'Making Institutions Work in Peru: Democracy, Development and Inequality since 1980', will be published in March 2006 by the Institute for the Study of the Americas, University of London.