Seminar Summary

Project: Russia and Eurasia Programme

Chatham House

On 3 March 2010, the Russia and Eurasia Programme, in partnership with Research Analysts, DSPPA, and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, held a seminar under the Chatham House Rule to discuss the normalization efforts and the likely regional impact of the Turkish-Armenian diplomatic process.

Session One looked at Armenia and Turkey's moves towards normalising relations:

  • What are the drivers of Turkish-Armenian rapprochement?
  • How likely is the ratification of the protocols? What if the ratification process becomes 'frozen'?
  • How far will the process go? What are the main obstacles to normalisation?

Session Two looked at the regional implications:

  • Who are the potential winners and losers from improved Turkish-Armenian relations?
  • How would improved Turkish-Armenian relations impact on the OSCE Minsk Process? If the border is opened, what sources of leverage remain to push Armenia towards a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
  • What are the long-term strategies of Turkey and Russia in the Caucasus?

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