Briefing Paper

Project: International Economics Department

David Hurst and Andrew Black
  • By 2025, most retail investment will be in the developing world. Consumer spending will be higher than in the developed world and modern retailing formats will expand to meet the demand for branded, added-value and luxury goods and services. Investment in modern retailing capacity will induce consumers to move away from more traditional formats and will increase consumption.
  • In the developed world, relatively less retail space will be devoted to food and grocery and much more to health, beauty, recreation, restaurants and financial services.
  • European and US retailers are becoming increasingly international as their home markets become saturated and as legislation in developing markets is relaxed. But international retailers will have to reflect local needs and a significant core of local retail business will remain.
  • The internet will play an increasingly important part in retailing as producers sell directly to consumers, although food and grocery will be less affected. Multichannel shopping will become more common, combining both internet and traditional shopping approaches.
  • The rapid global growth in the number of elderly people is likely to lead to a drop in the consumption of some types of retail goods and further changes in shopping formats to adapt to their needs.

Project: The World's Industrial Transformation Series