Programme Paper

Project: Asia Programme, Korean Peninsula

John Swenson-Wright

An orderly succession after the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, implies both generational continuity and a deliberate effort to avoid any impression of political uncertainty or a vacuum of power emerging in the immediate future. Indications of what the transfer of power will mean in terms of actual policy are less clear-cut. For the short-term stability rather than chaos is the likely outcome.