, Volume 69, Number 4

Alan Philps
Additional author info: 

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is professor of politics at New York University, a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, and author of several books on political forecasting including ‘The Predictioneer’s Game’

The political scientist who introduced the CIA to game theory explains how logic can improve political forecasting

Nate Silver, a data analyst and one-time poker pro who correctly predicted the outcome of the 2012 US election in all 50 states. Photo: Amy E.Price/Getty Images for SXSW

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