Ukraine

This was the question debated by some of the brightest minds at Chatham House’s recent conference of the same name. Armida van Rij offers three take aways from the annual event in Berlin.

Here’s what Chatham House’s experts will be keeping their eyes on in the year ahead

The Kremlin is signalling that it is ready to talk to the incoming US administration. But Trump may find Russia’s terms make him look unacceptably weak.

Orysia Lutsevych, Edward Howell and Yossi Mekelberg discuss North Korean troops fighting with Russian forces against Ukraine, as well as the issue of military conscription.

The debate about Ukraine’s use of US long-range missiles illustrates the broader strategic divide between Washington and Kyiv. Despite his efforts, Zelenskyy’s US visit did not help narrow this gap.

Focusing on three fundamental priorities to help safeguard European security will put NATO in a better position to tackle the many other challenges it faces.

Arrested officials are serving as scapegoats following battlefield failures in Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Michael Kofman, Olga Tokariuk and Christopher Miller join the podcast to discuss the state of Russia’s war against Ukraine and the potential role of Western long-range missiles.

Secretary Blinken joined Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox in conversation with an invited audience.

Anna Morgan profiles two cash-strapped projects struggling to offer mental health support to soldiers returning from the front line.

The head of Chatham House’s Ukraine Forum reveals how her fellow Ukrainians are preparing for winter, why she chose a career in international relations and why her son would love to live in Kyiv.

Like other high-profile weapons systems, the impact of F-16s may be curbed by limited numbers and US restrictions on their use.

The surprise raid has put talk of concessions to Moscow on hold. Kyiv hopes it will also defuse fears of Russian escalation.

The prisoner exchange is a victory for diplomacy, but we should not assume that justice has prevailed.

There was no invitation for Kyiv to join the alliance. But there was agreement on what Ukraine needs now to ensure Russia’s war fails.

NATO’s Washington summit takes place amid growing uncertainty about US leadership, and sustained Russian missile attacks on Ukraine’s cities.

A shrinking army risks the UK’s ability to fulfil its roles within the alliance. Boosting spending on recruitment, retention and upgrading capabilities is essential to maintaining a leadership role.

Even as Russia bombs Ukrainian cities with murderous effect, Moscow is on the diplomatic offensive. Putin hopes to exploit division among Kyiv’s allies – but is also fearful of a Trump presidency.

Dr Fareed Zakaria, host of CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS, in conversation with Chatham House director Bronwen Maddox.

While all eyes are on the battlefield, without recovery finance and key domestic reforms, Ukrainian resilience is at risk.

Backing down in the face of Russian threats is the worst option. The UK should join France in using strategic ambiguity.

President Biden has finally signed the $61 billion aid bill for Ukraine, but has help arrived too late for Ukraine and is momentum now back with Russia?

The essential aid package will allow Kyiv to slow down Russian forces. But the delay had a real cost for Ukraine, and a secure long-term funding model is required.

But without US leadership, the ability of Ukraine’s European allies to cooperate effectively looks uncertain.

Containing Russia requires a holistic view of Black Sea security that considers how this is interlinked with the security of adjacent regions.

Watch the keynote address from our security and defence conference, delivered by the UK Chief of the Defence Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin.

Zelenskyy hopes his reshuffle will change the trajectory of the war. But the sacking of his trusted commander could complicate a new wave of mobilization.

A protracted conflict works in Russia’s favour. But there is a clear path to bringing it to an early end.

Armed-conflict mediator Pierre Hazan tells John Milnes-Smith about possible war endgames and how peace deals have transformed since the 1990s.

A gallery of images recording the experience of Ukraine’s civilians as the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion approaches.

There are four possible outcomes for Russia’s war on Ukraine: ‘long war’, ‘frozen conflict’, ‘victory for Ukraine’, and ‘defeat for Ukraine’. This paper outlines how these scenarios may take shape, the factors influencing them and the consequences for Ukraine.

Russia seeks to rebuild and modernize its armed forces, both to make up for combat losses in Ukraine and to apply lessons from that theatre. The outcome of this project matters deeply for Western security.

This paper assesses Russia’s cyber and information operations against Ukraine, considers why Ukrainian responses have often been so effective, and outlines potential lessons for other states.

The war is making the challenges of climate change harder to overcome, both in Ukraine and worldwide.

This report makes the case for dramatically increased Western military assistance to Ukraine, and counsels against concessions to Russia.

Ukraine’s government, CSOs and international partners must work to ensure the skills, energy and ambition of the country’s citizens are channelled into transformative recovery planning and delivery.

Belarus – seen as a ‘vassal state’ of Russia – presents challenges for Western policymakers seeking to end repressions and support its pro-democracy movement.

Russian nuclear threats have been highly successful in constraining Western responses to the war on Ukraine. Actual use of nuclear weapons by Russia is unlikely – but must be more firmly deterred.

Although the UK is less exposed to the direct effects of the war in Ukraine than other European countries, the indirect and longer-term impact will be significant.

While the war in Ukraine is having significant global impacts for energy, food and fertilizer markets, it may also aggravate wider economic and social upheaval.

The UK’s current approach to anti-kleptocracy damages its rule of law, its standing as an opponent of international corruption and the integrity of important domestic institutions.

The resilience of Ukraine’s system of crony capitalism is the underlying obstacle to the development of fully functioning democratic institutions and rule of law, writes John Lough

This report deconstructs 16 of the most prevalent myths that shape contemporary Western thinking on Russia, and explains their detrimental impact on the design and execution of policy.

Ukraine’s media sector faces a wide range of challenges – not least the influence of oligarchs and politicians. This paper explores efforts to improve professional standards and public trust.

Ukraine’s cultural and creative sectors have flourished since the Euromaidan revolution, helping the country to counter divisive Russian narratives and develop a greater sense of national identity.

Despite Russia’s aggression, economic pressure and information war, Ukraine has managed to preserve its statehood and democratic reforms.

This paper outlines the achievements and shortcomings of decentralization and highlights a window of opportunity for completing the first phase of reforms. 

In societies struggling to democratize, social uprisings are an opportunity for new political elites. This paper examines factors for political renewal.

Ukraine’s vicious circle of corruption begins with the power groups that have created and sustained a system in which citizens believe that it is impossible to live without corruption. The process of cleaning up institutions must start at the top.

Building the resilience of societies and institutions offers a potentially viable strategy for the three countries to achieve more secure and less damaging cohabitation with Russia.

Transforming Ukrainian institutions requires a smarter, more flexible and more differentiated approach to using EU assistance for individual projects.

Four years on from its Euromaidan revolution, Ukraine is fighting for survival as an independent and viable state.

Regardless of its multiple shortcomings, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) should not be dismissed out of hand.