Ukraine: Current affairs and analysis

Rewarding Moscow with Crimea would become a template for future violations of sovereignty and a precedent for states with similar aims – notably China.

Interview: The EU’s first Commissioner for Defence discusses the urgency of learning from Ukraine’s military innovations and the ‘challenge’ of working with Europe’s defence industry.

The outgoing director of Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Programme reflects on Russia’s anti-democratic history, paying attention to its neighbours and his 25 years of service.

The use of cheap drones to strike targets deep within Russia provides a blueprint for rapidly evolving modern warfare that should inform how states seek to defend themselves.

For some, helping Ukraine is not worth the possibility of war. But if Russia is allowed to continue unopposed, almost everything is at risk.

Orysia Lutsevych and Matthew Savill discuss the Ukraine–US mineral deal and the challenges facing Ukraine in the peace negotiations with Russia.

Donald Trump values his personal relations with Saudi royals and the kingdom is willing to play the role of host. But with prestige comes expectations.

If Donald Trump believed he could persuade Vladimir Putin to sign up to a comprehensive ceasefire in Ukraine, he is learning the hard way: Russia is interested in peace, but only on its terms.

Washington wants to secure Ukraine’s valuable raw materials in a headline-grabbing deal, but a joint partnership with the EU and Kyiv is mutually beneficial in the long term.

Ukraine has agreed to a ceasefire in principle. But conflicts often intensify when a pause in fighting is being negotiated.

The director of Chatham House’s new Centre for Global Governance and Security on the shift to more ‘transactional’ global relations, civilian suffering in the Donbas and why the era of western dominance is over.

The millions who fled Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 are now facing pressure to return. Olga Tokariuk speaks to some caught in a difficult dilemma.

Trump’s approach to Ukraine is a test for Europe’s ability to adapt to a world of great power politics. To pass it, Europe should reach out to China.

President Trump’s suspension of US military aid to Ukraine underscores the urgent need for Europe to absorb the lessons from Ukraine’s war.

Following the extraordinary events of 28 February, Europe needs unity and resolve to defend Ukraine and help repair Kyiv’s relations with Washington.

Washington hosted a week of relatively friendly talks. But discussions of European security were not productive.

Speakers at a recent Chatham House conference discuss how European states can act to repel Russian aggression.

To the Trump administration, pleasing Russia looks like it solves major problems. But experience shows that those who try, live to regret it.

Timothy Garton Ash, Georgina Wright and Orysia Lutsevych join the podcast to discuss whether Europe can still rely on the United States for its security.

The UK must lead on Ukraine’s defence with clear spending commitments – and invest in European collaboration. 

President Trump refuses to commit the US to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty. Europe must agree how to fill the vacuum to have a hope of influencing negotiations with Putin.

Exhibition draws attention to the emotional and psychological toll of war on Ukrainian youth.

Mark Landler, Francis Dearnley and Orysia Lutsevych join the podcast to discuss whether a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is possible.

Gideon Rachman, Leslie Vinjamuri and Renad Mansour join the podcast to look at the year ahead and discuss whether we are likely to face a more disordered world.

A ceasefire that leaves Ukraine unprotected would only provide a pause before a wider war. Washington and Kyiv must agree viable security guarantees before any negotiations with Putin begin.

Here’s what Chatham House’s experts will be keeping their eyes on in the year ahead

This was the question debated by some of the brightest minds at Chatham House’s recent conference of the same name. Armida van Rij offers three take aways from the annual event in Berlin.

The Kremlin is signalling that it is ready to talk to the incoming US administration. But Trump may find Russia’s terms make him look unacceptably weak.

Orysia Lutsevych, Edward Howell and Yossi Mekelberg discuss North Korean troops fighting with Russian forces against Ukraine, as well as the issue of military conscription.

The debate about Ukraine’s use of US long-range missiles illustrates the broader strategic divide between Washington and Kyiv. Despite his efforts, Zelenskyy’s US visit did not help narrow this gap.

Relations between North Korea and Russia have developed rapidly from a cash-for-weapons exchange to the deployment of North Korean troops. Their partnership now endangers regional and global security, and the US and its partners must take the threat seriously.

There are four possible outcomes for Russia’s war on Ukraine: ‘long war’, ‘frozen conflict’, ‘victory for Ukraine’, and ‘defeat for Ukraine’. This paper outlines how these scenarios may take shape, the factors influencing them and the consequences for Ukraine.

Russia seeks to rebuild and modernize its armed forces, both to make up for combat losses in Ukraine and to apply lessons from that theatre. The outcome of this project matters deeply for Western security.

This paper assesses Russia’s cyber and information operations against Ukraine, considers why Ukrainian responses have often been so effective, and outlines potential lessons for other states.

The war is making the challenges of climate change harder to overcome, both in Ukraine and worldwide.

This report makes the case for dramatically increased Western military assistance to Ukraine, and counsels against concessions to Russia.

Ukraine’s government, CSOs and international partners must work to ensure the skills, energy and ambition of the country’s citizens are channelled into transformative recovery planning and delivery.

Belarus – seen as a ‘vassal state’ of Russia – presents challenges for Western policymakers seeking to end repressions and support its pro-democracy movement.

Russian nuclear threats have been highly successful in constraining Western responses to the war on Ukraine. Actual use of nuclear weapons by Russia is unlikely – but must be more firmly deterred.

Although the UK is less exposed to the direct effects of the war in Ukraine than other European countries, the indirect and longer-term impact will be significant.

While the war in Ukraine is having significant global impacts for energy, food and fertilizer markets, it may also aggravate wider economic and social upheaval.

The UK’s current approach to anti-kleptocracy damages its rule of law, its standing as an opponent of international corruption and the integrity of important domestic institutions.

The resilience of Ukraine’s system of crony capitalism is the underlying obstacle to the development of fully functioning democratic institutions and rule of law, writes John Lough

This report deconstructs 16 of the most prevalent myths that shape contemporary Western thinking on Russia, and explains their detrimental impact on the design and execution of policy.

Ukraine’s media sector faces a wide range of challenges – not least the influence of oligarchs and politicians. This paper explores efforts to improve professional standards and public trust.

Ukraine’s cultural and creative sectors have flourished since the Euromaidan revolution, helping the country to counter divisive Russian narratives and develop a greater sense of national identity.

Despite Russia’s aggression, economic pressure and information war, Ukraine has managed to preserve its statehood and democratic reforms.

This paper outlines the achievements and shortcomings of decentralization and highlights a window of opportunity for completing the first phase of reforms. 

In societies struggling to democratize, social uprisings are an opportunity for new political elites. This paper examines factors for political renewal.

Ukraine’s vicious circle of corruption begins with the power groups that have created and sustained a system in which citizens believe that it is impossible to live without corruption. The process of cleaning up institutions must start at the top.

Building the resilience of societies and institutions offers a potentially viable strategy for the three countries to achieve more secure and less damaging cohabitation with Russia.

Transforming Ukrainian institutions requires a smarter, more flexible and more differentiated approach to using EU assistance for individual projects.

Four years on from its Euromaidan revolution, Ukraine is fighting for survival as an independent and viable state.

Regardless of its multiple shortcomings, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) should not be dismissed out of hand.