Past event

Conference

Russian Oil and Gas: New Trends and Implications

28 Mar 2011 - 00:00 to 30 Mar 2011 - 00:00

Chatham House, London

The future of Russia's oil and gas sector has major significance for both the country's internal development and its relations with the outside world. Russia plays a crucial role in the global energy balance. It possesses the world's largest natural gas reserves and the eighth largest oil reserves. It is also the second world's largest oil exporter and the biggest supplier of gas to Europe.

This conference will gather leading industrialists and their advisers, financiers, policymakers, economists and political analysts in examining the hydro carbon sector in Russia and its development and investment potential. Questions to be discussed include:

  • Is Russia's strategic planning in line with likely future energy trends?
  • The interplay between economic interests and political imperatives in Russia's foreign gas trading
  • What will the role of private investors be in state-controlled companies in the coming years? Are we seeing a turn to more openness to foreign direct investment in the sector?
  • What are the challenges to developing reserves in the Russian arctic?

 

  • Talyat Aliev

    • Deputy Director of International Cooperation
  • Michael Bradshaw

    • Professor of Human Geography
  • Dr Ariel Cohen

    • Senior Research Fellow, The Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for
  • Charles Emmerson

    • Senior Fellow, Energy, Environment and Development Programme
  • Alastair Ferguson

    • Deputy Executive Director, Gas Business Development
  • Leonid M Grigoriev

    • Professor, Higher School of Economics, Moscow
  • Tim Gould

    • Senior Energy Analyst, Office of the Chief Economist
  • Professor Philip Hanson

    • Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme
  • Dieter Helm CBE

    • Professor of Energy Policy
  • Charles Hendry MP

    • Minister of State
  • Peter Kaznacheev

    • Managing Partner
  • John Lough

    • Vice President, BGR Gabara LLP and
  • Philip Lowe

    • Director General, Energy DG
  • Arild Moe

    • Deputy Director and Senior Research Fellow
  • Dr Tatiana Mitrova

    • Head, Center for International Energy Markets Studies
  • Elena A Panfilova

    • Founder and Director
  • John Roberts

    • Energy Security Specialist
  • James Sherr

    • Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme
  • Dr Konstantin Simonov

    • Head
  • Louis Skyner

    • Associate Fellow, Energy, Environment and Development Programme
  • Professor Paul Stevens

    • Senior Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Development Programme
  • Pekka Sutela

    • Non-resident Senior Associate
  • Sir Andrew Wood

    • Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme

This conference will be held under the Chatham House Rule. Information for journalists >>

Press can request a press pass using the form below.

Argus Media

Caspian Focus

Energy Intelligence

Eurasian Energy Observer

Gas Matters

Interfax

Natural Gas for Europe

OGEL

Oil and Gas Update

Russian Petroleum Investor

DAY ONE
Monday, 28 March 2011

Session One
Setting the Scene: External factors influencing Russia's oil and gas sector

  • Is Russia's strategic planning in line with likely future energy trends?
  • Are its expectations about future oil prices realistic?
  • How will changes in demand for European gas impact on Russia?
  • Will shale gas and liquefied natural gas affect Russia's market share and gas pricing?
  • The external investment climate - is there the capital available to modernize Russia's oil and gas sector?

10.00 Chair
James Sherr
Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme
Chatham House

10.15 Speakers
Alastair Muir Ferguson
Deputy Executive Director, Gas Business Development
TNK-BP

Paul Stevens
Senior Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Development Programme
Chatham House

11.00 Keynote Address
Charles Hendry MP
Minister of State
Department for Energy and Climate Change, UK

11.30 Moderated Discussion
Alastair Muir Ferguson

Paul Stevens

12.30 Lunch

Session Two
The Domestic Context

  • What are Russia's reserves? How easy are they to access? What is the status of Russia's new field development?
  • How much money is required to maintain and modernize key infrastructure? Are Gazprom, Rosneft and Transneft up to the task?
  • The major private domestic players: current approach and likely future strategies
  • Will there be a gas production crunch in Russia? Can Gazprom manage declining production from existing reserves and shift to green gas fields?
  • How can Russia improve its energy efficiency?
  • What conditions are required for more independent firms to enter the domestic gas market?

Chair
Professor Philip Hanson
Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme
Chatham House

13.15 Remarks from the Chair

13.25 Speakers
Dr Tatiana Mitrova
Head, Center for International Energy Markets Studies
Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Tim Gould
Senior Energy Analyst, Office of the Chief Economist
International Energy Agency

John Roberts
Energy Security Specialist
Platts

Leonid M Grigoriev
Professor, Higher School of Economics, Moscow
Chairman of the Board, WWF-Russia

14.15 Questions and discussion

14.45 Refreshments

Session Three
Political Risk, Good Governance and the Business Climate

  • How do firms minimize risks to their investments?
  • How do foreign firms avoid corrupt practices when domestic political and economic interests are entwined?
  • How does Russia compare internationally in terms of investment risk in 'strategic' sectors? Is it so different?
  • Will we ever have clear rules of the game?

Chair
Dr Ariel Cohen
Senior Research Fellow, The Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for
International Studies, The Heritage Foundation

15.15 Remarks from the chair

15.25 Speakers
Pekka Sutela
Non-resident Senior Associate
Carnegie Endowment

Russia's Energy Partnership with Europe
Philip Lowe
Director General, Energy DG
European Commission

16.45 End of day one and drinks reception

DAY TWO
Tuesday, 29 March 2011

Session Four
Expanding Frontiers and Increasing Technical Challenges - the Arctic, the Barents Sea and the Russian Far East

  • What are the challenges to developing reserves in the Russian Arctic?
  • What are the timelines for major exploration of the Arctic?
  • Will Russia be forced to look abroad for technical expertise as it moves to new fields in challenging locations?
  • On what terms will this expertise be sought?

Chair
Professor Michael Bradshaw
Professor of Human Geography
University of Leicester

09.30 Remarks from the Chair

Speakers
09.40 Arild Moe
Deputy Director and Senior Research Fellow
Fridtjof Nansen Institute

Peter Kaznacheev
Managing Partner
Khaznah Strategies Ltd

Charles Emmerson
Senior Fellow, Energy, Environment and Development Programme
Chatham House

10.40 Questions and discussion

11.00 Refreshments

Session Five
Foreign Investment in Russia's Hydrocarbon Sector

  • What will be the role of private investors in state-controlled hydrocarbon companies in the coming years? Are we seeing a turn to more openness to foreign direct investment in the sector?
  • Is state involvement in the oil sector likely to decline, to increase or to remain stable? What is the strategy behind it?
  • What is the role of oil and gas in the government's modernization agenda? Is Russia's economy likely to become less dependent on oil and gas?
  • Is there any prospect of a major liberalization of the gas sector in Russia?

Chair
John Lough
Vice President, BGR Gabara LLP and
Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House

11.20 Remarks from the Chair

11.30 Keynote Address
Professor Dieter Helm CBE
Professor of Energy Policy
University of Oxford

12.00 Speakers
Dr Konstantin Simonov
Head
National Energy Security Fund

Louis Skyner
Associate Fellow, Energy, Environment and Development Programme
Chatham House

12.45 Questions and discussion

13.15 Lunch

Session Six
The Role of Oil and Gas in Russia's Foreign Policy

  • 'Energy superpower' or resource appendage? How important is the energy sector to Russia's foreign policy?
  • The interplay between economic interests and political imperatives in Russia's foreign gas trading
  • What is the strategy behind Russian energy firms' foreign investments? How should states respond?
  • Will Russian investment help or hinder energy resource development in neighbouring states?

14.15 Chair and Overview
Sir Andrew Wood
Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme
Chatham House

14.30 Speakers
Elena A Panfilova
Founder and Director
Center Transparency International-Russia

Dr Ariel Cohen
Senior Research Fellow, The Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for
International Studies, The Heritage Foundation

James Sherr
Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme
Chatham House

15.30 Questions and discussion

16.00 End of conference and refreshments