Russia: Current affairs and analysis

In trying to limit the pain on itself, the West has pulled its punches in hurting Russia.

This week’s summit shows the relationship is resilient, rooted in shared interests. But China remains wary of commitments on various fronts.

Is the initiative on the Ukraine war slipping out of Russian president Vladimir Putin’s hands? And how has the US-Israel war on Iran affected Moscow?

The latest attacks, following months of JNIM raids on Mali’s vital fuel supplies, show the need for negotiation at a regional, national and local level.

Higher energy prices and the US decision to ease sanctions on Russian oil have given Moscow a windfall that could help to sustain its war in Ukraine.

Perhaps, but change will not mean transformation.

The outages are part of the Kremlin’s efforts to control Russia’s internet architecture and communication networks – but also reveal the regime’s growing anxieties.

Carefully calibrated involvement in the Middle East amplifies Moscow’s leverage from Havana to the frontlines in Ukraine.

Interview: Ryhor Astapenia tells Sara Seth how the West must deploy sanctions relief and soft power to break Minsk’s longstanding ties with the Kremlin.

The Patriarchate’s support for the military has intensified, and its outreach has expanded to America’s religious right. But for the faithful at home, trust in the church is wavering, writes Lucy Ash

Amid the expiration of New START and fears of secret weapon testing, the world’s oldest arms reduction treaty is under strain, writes Iona Allan.

The war will not affect Russian plans in Ukraine – but it will likely force a rethink of long-held Russian strategic concepts.

Letting New START expire would signal that the world’s largest nuclear powers are abandoning restraint.

Moscow has prioritized the war in Ukraine over its commitments in Venezuela, Syria and Iran as Trump reshapes the world order.

The Russian president’s specious justifications for the war in Ukraine mean he won’t stop there. But time is running out for Europe to formulate a defence strategy, writes Gabrielius Landsbergis.

President Trump’s threats towards Greenland and rumoured American mineral deals with Russia mean NATO allies can no longer rely on the US in the High North. Britain could help fill the military gap, writes Minna Ålander.

Alarming events in nuclear proliferation, space security and hybrid warfare meant 2025 was a year in which the international security order deteriorated.

A widespread, but misleading, assumption holds that Moscow’s current weakness signals its inevitable retreat from the region. In reality, Russia has deepened its entrenchment.

Europe should look to history to prepare for the realities of long-term occupation of Ukrainian territory.

US pressure aims to choke off Russian oil supplies to India. Modi and Putin are seeking to deepen cooperation in other areas. But in the long-term, relations are in a managed decline.

European national leaders have been too slow and cautious in their support for Kyiv. Can they rise to meet this defining moment? 

Chatham House analysts give their initial analysis after Zelenskyy was pressured by Trump to accept a White House plan to end the war with Russia.

Escalating tensions between the world’s two largest nuclear powers come only months before the last remaining US–Russia nuclear arms control treaty expires.

Moscow is attempting to break Ukraine’s will to fight with more frequent mass drone and missile attacks on its power sector. To counter this pressure, Kyiv needs to increase its attacks on Russia’s oil industry.

With new embassies and trade initiatives, Kyiv is trying to win African allies and undermine Putin’s war economy. But it’s up against decades of Moscow’s influence, writes Jenny Mathers.

A potted selection of reviews from our sister journal ‘International Affairs’, by its book reviews editor Mariana Vieira.

Interview: Natalie Sabanadze tells Sara Seth about Putin’s efforts to dominate the sea’s trade and energy routes, and why Europe needs Turkey’s support to stop him.

Now could be the time to ratchet up sanctions pressure on Putin and change Moscow’s risk analysis of prolonging the war.

With Russia focused on its war in Ukraine, Aliaksandr Lukashenka is downplaying the drills to show that Belarus wants to ease tensions with the West – reflecting a genuine fear of escalation.

Grégoire Roos will begin his new role of Programme Director for Europe and Russia in October.

By tightening the price cap on Russia’s oil exports and enforcing restrictions on shipments more robustly, Ukraine’s allies can increase the pressure on Putin to end the war.

While the Black Sea plays a pivotal role in Russia’s strategic thinking, the region also presents a critical opportunity for the West to contain Moscow’s global ambitions.

Russia’s military industry is struggling to modernize under the weight of sanctions and the demands of war. The West must aim to widen the growing technological gap with Moscow to blunt the latter’s threat.

As the Trump administration turns away from the US-led post-war international order, how are other states envisioning ‘international order’ and what are their plans for adapting to new realities?

Relations between North Korea and Russia have developed rapidly from a cash-for-weapons exchange to the deployment of North Korean troops. Their partnership now endangers regional and global security, and the US and its partners must take the threat seriously.

There are four possible outcomes for Russia’s war on Ukraine: ‘long war’, ‘frozen conflict’, ‘victory for Ukraine’, and ‘defeat for Ukraine’. This paper outlines how these scenarios may take shape, the factors influencing them and the consequences for Ukraine.

Russia seeks to rebuild and modernize its armed forces, both to make up for combat losses in Ukraine and to apply lessons from that theatre. The outcome of this project matters deeply for Western security.

This paper assesses Russia’s cyber and information operations against Ukraine, considers why Ukrainian responses have often been so effective, and outlines potential lessons for other states.

This report makes the case for dramatically increased Western military assistance to Ukraine, and counsels against concessions to Russia.

How might a post-Putin Russia look to the outside world? Duncan Allan presents some potential outcomes based on a scenario of a Russian defeat in Ukraine.

Belarus – seen as a ‘vassal state’ of Russia – presents challenges for Western policymakers seeking to end repressions and support its pro-democracy movement.

Russian nuclear threats have been highly successful in constraining Western responses to the war on Ukraine. Actual use of nuclear weapons by Russia is unlikely – but must be more firmly deterred.

Russia’s increasingly militarized approach to polar politics threatens to end the era of low tension in the Arctic and to undermine the stability of the Antarctic Treaty System.

While the war in Ukraine is having significant global impacts for energy, food and fertilizer markets, it may also aggravate wider economic and social upheaval.

Human processes and judgments can affect decisions in the nuclear chain of command. Complexity science offers policymakers pathways to reduce escalatory risk.

To forge an effective Russia policy post-Brexit, the UK needs a clear, coherent Russia strategy based on a realistic assessment of its own power and influence.

The UK’s current approach to anti-kleptocracy damages its rule of law, its standing as an opponent of international corruption and the integrity of important domestic institutions.

There is potential for complementary agendas in French and German approaches to Russia, but the Franco-German ‘motor’ will not be enough to push through an EU-wide Russia policy.

Innovations in military technology are enhancing and enabling Russia’s way of war. How should NATO and its allies respond?

Persistent past behaviours by the Russian state offer clues to how it can be deterred from hostile action against the West in the future. But this is only possible if the West shows both the will and the ability to defend itself.

Russia’s strategic deterrent balances the capabilities of its nuclear arsenal with a growing range of non-nuclear forms of deterrence, writes Valeriy Akimenko

This report deconstructs 16 of the most prevalent myths that shape contemporary Western thinking on Russia, and explains their detrimental impact on the design and execution of policy.

Although Russia wants to position its Far Eastern region as a logistics hub for closer links with Asia and Europe, there are inadequacies in the infrastructure.

Despite Russia’s aggression, economic pressure and information war, Ukraine has managed to preserve its statehood and democratic reforms.

Instead of trying to resolve an unresolvable contradiction, Western policymakers should acknowledge the starkness of the Minsk conundrum.

How is it possible for the directors of the Russian economy to pursue an orthodox stabilization policy and yet achieve so little to stem growth slowdown?

This paper outlines the achievements and shortcomings of decentralization and highlights a window of opportunity for completing the first phase of reforms. 

This paper focuses on Russia’s military posture in the Russian Arctic, demystifying Moscow’s military build-up, and explaining why the intentions are defensive.

Examining reform and modernization of Russia’s military, giving a new structure which enables high readiness for short warning, possibly complex. conflicts.

This paper explores the evolution of the dilemmas in Armenia’s foreign policy since the 1990s. Its primary aim is to offer an informed background for further discussions, beyond the conventional and stereotypical views that dominate policy thinking on this issue in the West as well as in Armenia.