Lower-income countries that are banking on their fossil fuels lack the capacity to assess carbon risks, and may be left behind by shifts in investment and credit.
Acknowledgments
We began the research for this paper in late 2016 with the support of the UK Department for International Development (DFID), and in partnership with University Colleague London (UCL). There are many people to whom we are indebted for their contributions and insights to this paper and apologies to those we have not been able to list here. We are extremely grateful to Nicola Barnfarther for championing the idea of this work, along with her colleagues at DFID, to Paul Ekins at UCL for his intellectual guidance, and to Ben Boakye for his collaboration and invaluable advice and written contribution. We are also grateful to Bernard Tembo, James Price and Tobias Udscholt for their extensive work on the early global and country modelling and research.
We would like to thank the many stakeholders that we interviewed in Dar Es Salaam and Accra in late 2016, and all those who gave up their precious time in order to participate in project workshops in Washington DC in April 2017, in London in September 2017, and in Accra in November 2017. Special thanks are due to Emma Msaky, Ikal Ang’elei, Dorian Mead, Henrik Meller, Michael Stanley, James Close, James Morrissey, Isabel Blanco, Adam Mathews, Mohammed Amin Adam, and Nic Lee. We could not have held such productive workshops in Washington DC and Accra without our partners, including Sarah Ladislaw and her team at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Dela Quarshie-Twum, Eric Akwei and their colleagues at Ghana Oil and Gas for Inclusive Growth (GOGIG), and the African Centre for Energy Policy (ACEP). Thanks also to Dennis Rweyemamu and his colleagues at the Ungozi Institute in Dar Es Salaam. This project has also benefitted immensely from the work of Valerie Marcel and the members of the New Petroleum Producers’ Discussion group (with special thanks to participants at the Guyana National Seminar held in June 2017), and the guidance of Paul Stevens.
In putting the final research paper together we are very grateful for the guidance and comments of Sila Sahin, Mansoor Ahmad, Dan Haglund, Gareth Martin, Philip Mann, Will Blyth and Hayley Sharp at DFID and Zoe Norgate and her colleagues at the UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS). We warmly thank the expert reviewers for their invaluable comments on the final draft, including: Rose Mwebaza, Waqar Haidar, Clare Shakya, Thomas Scurfield, Hamis Ussif, Ananth Chikkatur, Laura Norris, Rogerio Ossemane, our two double-blind reviewers and our colleagues, Rob Bailey, Felix Preston, Valerie Marcel and Rebekka Rumple; and on earlier versions of the report and case studies: Melanie Nakagawa, Deborah Gordon, Arno Tomowski, Petter Stigset and his colleagues at Norad, Alzbeta Klein and many others who took the time to speak to us and share their experience. Thanks also to Melissa MacEwen who provided invaluable assistance in coordinating and delivering the final paper, and to Mike Tsang for his editorial work.
This project has been funded by UK Aid under DFID’s Infrastructure for Cities and Economic Development (ICED) programme. However, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policy. Furthermore, any omissions or mistakes are the responsibility of the authors.