Syria and the Levant

Research focuses on domestic dynamics in Jordan, Lebanon and Syria, and the impact of regional dynamics on their politics, economies and societies.

Syrian citizens walk past a door that has an Assad poster on it

After over a decade, the Syrian civil war has come to a stalemate, further entrenching the economic and humanitarian catastrophes the country has experienced since 2011. Lebanon continues to grapple with the fallout from the August 2020 port explosion, a severe economic crisis, and political infighting.

Jordan, meanwhile, has faced its own economic challenges, reflected in social unrest and political tensions. All three countries are navigating these domestic dynamics in the context of wider regional instability.

Research focuses on state-society relations amid economic and political pressures, and examines the implications of regional security dynamics in Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria.

A woman walks in front of electoral posters in Amman, Jordan.

Jordan’s parliamentary election on 10 September promises to be the most consequential vote since democracy was reintroduced to the kingdom in 1989.

Parliamentary elections are a travesty, and Syrians know it. But the vote plays an important legitimizing role for the Assad regime.

Neither side wants a war but both are rewriting the rules of engagement.

Members of the Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah movement salute during the funeral of Youssef Karam Jawad

Hezbollah knows escalation would hurt Iran and erode its support in Lebanon, forcing it to prioritize survival over any effort to exploit the situation.

Political settlements in Iraq, Lebanon and Libya have long relied on deals between elites to ensure ‘stability’, but the resulting power-sharing systems fuel corruption and have led to disastrous governance failings. To improve the daily lives of citizens under these settlements, international policymakers must focus on increasing the accountability of elites.

Explainers

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Short animation showing the impact of normalizing trade relations between the Syrian regime and Arab countries both on the regime and Syrian households.

Short animation explaining the socio-economic impact of conflict on local power dynamics in coastal Syria, especially in Tartous and Lattakia.

Explaining Lebanon’s political system, the influence of religion, armed groups such as Hezbollah, and corruption in the state.

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Despite escalations, a full-blown conflict would be bad for both sides. But all this brinkmanship is diverting attention from Palestine.

But they move Israel and the ‘axis of resistance’ closer to a wider war – a conflict that each side knows it cannot win.

Emergency and security personnel work at the site of strikes which hit a building next to the Iranian embassy in Syria's capital Damascus on 1 April 2024.

Israel’s attack signalled a shift in its strategy towards Iran. Tehran’s response and the US promise of ‘ironclad’ support for Israel risks escalation of this transnational conflict.

This paper explores how the remote border district of Sinjar in Iraq became a transnational conflict hub that threatens wider security in the Middle East.

A picture taken from Rafah shows smoke billowing over Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip during Israeli bombardment on 19 January 2024, amid ongoing battles between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

The risk of regional escalation means that the Gulf Arab states should do more to push for a ceasefire, not only for humanitarian reasons, but for their economic self-interest.

Calls for a ceasefire have yet to yield results. Those in the region must prioritize a political settlement.

The US must do everything it can to prevent another devastating war.

Member content

After Opec cut oil production on October 17, 1973, millions were displaced from Afghanistan and Syria, transforming global politics, argues Randall Hansen.

A historic opportunity exists to promote multilateral cooperation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, building on recent political de-escalation. With the right design, a new forum could succeed where previous initiatives have failed.

As dust storms in the Middle East become increasingly frequent and intense, adversaries must cooperate to address the causes.

Jewelry for sale at a shelter for lesbian, bisexual and queer women in 2023 in Kampala, Uganda

Uganda is among the latest countries to turn up the legal temperature on its LGBTQ+ populations. Countries in the Middle East and North Africa offer lessons on how to hold the ground on sexual health and rights.

Episode 27 of our weekly podcast examines the Syrian regime with signs that governments in the Middle East are prepared to engage with Bashar al-Assad again.

Demonstrations in central Tunis against Tunisia's president President Kais Saied, who opponents claim is aiming to install a new dictatorship in the birthplace of the Arab Spring. Photo by FETHI BELAID/AFP via Getty Images.

The future of the region is still up for grabs. It will be up to those who believe in democracy and progress to seize it.

Feeding pigeons on the street in Tehran, Iran. Photo by Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.

Countries across the Middle East have engaged in an unprecedented pattern of reconciliation to protect their interests amid fluctuations in the international order. But without deliberate international support, these new ties can easily unravel.

Public facilities are key to managing human displacement crises. With strained resources, sustainable upgrades to buildings can enable states to meet multiple welfare objectives.

A general view of a wheat field in Mariupol, Ukraine on 31 July 2022, as Russia-Ukraine war continues. Photo by Stringer/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.

The conflict supply chain of wheat from Ukraine and Russia to Syria highlights interlinkages between the conflicts and the role of sanctions in driving cooperation.

With consistent and long-term support from the US, the Abraham Accords could have a transformative impact on Middle East economic cooperation and regional security.

Mines, the fragments of conflict and war, threaten civilians long after the guns and bombs have fallen silent. Zeina Saleh, who works to clear minefields in Lebanon, speaks to Gitika Bhardwaj for International Women’s Day as part of a series exploring women in international affairs.

Graphic for Independent Thinking podcast

Episode 15 of our weekly podcast examines the far-reaching consequences of the earthquakes which struck Turkey and Syria on the region’s fragile geopolitics.

A partially collapsed house in the Syrian town of Azaz close to the border with Turkey, following the earthquakes in February 2023. Photo by BAKR ALKASEM/AFP via Getty Images.

Help for Syrians following the devastating earthquakes is being hampered by the Assad regime’s control over aid flows and a slow-moving United Nations.

Even amid an outpouring of international support, the catastrophe is caught up in the politics of the Syria war with political leaders aiming for legitimacy.

Episode eight of our new weekly podcast reflects on almost one year of war in Ukraine, and 12 years of war in Syria.

Examining the crossover between water security and climate change with the next two COPs taking place in regions with a history of being water stressed.

A man shows fake oranges filled with Captagon pills and dissimulated in boxes containing real fruit, after the shipment was intercepted by the customs and the anti-drug brigade at the Beirut port, in the Lebanese capital, on 29 December 2021. Photo by ANWAR AMRO/AFP via Getty Images.

Any policy designed to counter the growing Captagon trade must take into account its impact on local border communities.

Turkish commandos, crucial in the country's anti-terrorist operations, train at the Isparta Egirdir Mountain Commando School and Training Center Command in Isparta, Turkey. Photo by Suleyman Elcin/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.

Turkey benefits from NATO’s Strategic Concept and is in a celebratory mood over a new deal with Sweden and Finland. But interpretation is the key to success.

Poor infrastructure and even poorer governance is a critical part of the story of healthcare in Iraq, but so too is the complex issue of the movement and supply of medicines.

Open access

The ‘poor man’s cocaine’ is now rife across the Middle East, heralding an era of violent, state-sponsored drug-trafficking, says Vanda Felbab-Brown

Find out about the 13 articles in the May issue of International Affairs

A new podcast series explores the shifting political dynamics of the Arab world.

With elections looming, how are emerging political parties shaping Lebanon’s political system?

Latest event recordings

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Experts examine how the war in Gaza is affecting Jordan.

Experts assess the impact of instability in the Middle East on Syria.

Experts examine the impacts of the Gaza war and Greece–Turkey de-escalation on regional security and cooperation.

Experts assess the power and motivations of different groups in the Middle East crisis.

Experts examine the role of regional states and explore the long-term solutions for the conflict in Gaza.

Authors and experts discuss the findings of a new research paper on Israeli-Emirati normalization and its implications for regional security and integration.

A conference where analysts and experts reflect on their experiences and lessons learned from a decade of upheaval and contention in the region since the Arab Spring.

This International Affairs webinar shares research on US special operations, urban warfare, and digital activism in recent conflicts.

How has the ‘war on terror’ shaped the Middle East?

How have diplomats adapted their practices during the pandemic?

Experts examine the dynamics of transboundary water politics in Iraq and Syria and address the role water can play in future peacebuilding efforts.

This webinar highlights the potentially catastrophic risks of a coronavirus outbreak in Idlib and displacement camps in northwest Syria.

This conference brings together policymakers, experts, academics and civil society leaders to explore the current condition of the state in Syria.

At the London Conference 2019, Robin Niblett talks with Sir John Major about the current state of global order and today’s major issues in international affairs.

This conference brings together policymakers, experts, academics and civil society leaders to identify the main institutional and socioeconomic challenges to stabilization in Syria.

The conference worked through a diversity of regional, political and professional perspectives, assessed the drivers of global change, located the risks and identified opportunities for governments, business and NGOs.