Syria and the Levant

Assad’s departure could help Turkey become a key point of transit for natural gas. But renewable energy may offer the more promising avenue for cooperation with a new Syrian regime.

Haid Haid, Gideon Rachman and Rana Rahimpour join the podcast to discuss the collapse of Bashar-al Assad’s regime in Syria and what it means for the wider region.

Turkey feels its longstanding support of the Syrian opposition has now been vindicated. But its increased influence in Damascus also comes with significant responsibilities.

Tehran is considering whether weaponizing its nuclear programme or making a deal with the US provides better protection from further Israeli action.

Events in Syria have undermined Moscow’s claims to be a reliable security guarantor. But Russia’s position in the country remains secondary to the war in Ukraine.

The fall of Assad’s regime is an opportunity for Western powers to right some of their wrongs in Syria and restore faith in the international rules-based system. But this is, and must be, Syria’s moment to lead.

Events in Syria have upended the balance of power in the region – exposing the weakness of the dictator’s alliances and driving home the failure of Western policy.

Syria’s president might be toppled, or a new civil war could break out with Abu Mohammed Al-Jawlani’s HTS forces. But another ceasefire seems the most likely outcome.

Russia and Iran-backed militias are moving to prop up Bashar al-Assad, as opposition forces advance. But a political solution remains the only way to end the cycle of violence.

The Israeli military’s unprecedented use of brute force has changed the strategic environment, ending Tehran’s hopes of bleeding Israel through linked conflicts.

A second Trump presidency poses serious risks to Jordan, not least because of growing concern the US could support an Israeli annexation of the West Bank.

Transnational conflict in the Middle East is fuelled by both ‘legal’ and ‘illegal’ trade. Mapping these cross-border dynamics can help understand and address violent conflict.

Israel’s killing of Nasrallah has dealt a devastating blow to Hezbollah. Where it goes from here is highly uncertain.

Gregg Carlstrom joins the podcast to discuss Israel’s decision to intensify attacks against Hezbollah and what this means for the region.

Tel Aviv may believe now is the time to neutralize all immediate threats to its border, as a preliminary to long-sought strikes on Tehran’s nuclear programme.

Visiting Israel and the Lebanon border on Monday, I am struck by how far off peace seems, and how dangerous the confrontation with Hezbollah remains a year after 7 October.

Jordan’s parliamentary election on 10 September promises to be the most consequential vote since democracy was reintroduced to the kingdom in 1989.

Despite escalations, a full-blown conflict would be bad for both sides. But all this brinkmanship is diverting attention from Palestine.

But they move Israel and the ‘axis of resistance’ closer to a wider war – a conflict that each side knows it cannot win.

Parliamentary elections are a travesty, and Syrians know it. But the vote plays an important legitimizing role for the Assad regime.

Neither side wants a war but both are rewriting the rules of engagement.

Israel’s attack signalled a shift in its strategy towards Iran. Tehran’s response and the US promise of ‘ironclad’ support for Israel risks escalation of this transnational conflict.

Hezbollah knows escalation would hurt Iran and erode its support in Lebanon, forcing it to prioritize survival over any effort to exploit the situation.

The risk of regional escalation means that the Gulf Arab states should do more to push for a ceasefire, not only for humanitarian reasons, but for their economic self-interest.

Calls for a ceasefire have yet to yield results. Those in the region must prioritize a political settlement.

The US must do everything it can to prevent another devastating war.

After Opec cut oil production on October 17, 1973, millions were displaced from Afghanistan and Syria, transforming global politics, argues Randall Hansen.

As dust storms in the Middle East become increasingly frequent and intense, adversaries must cooperate to address the causes.

Uganda is among the latest countries to turn up the legal temperature on its LGBTQ+ populations. Countries in the Middle East and North Africa offer lessons on how to hold the ground on sexual health and rights.

Episode 27 of our weekly podcast examines the Syrian regime with signs that governments in the Middle East are prepared to engage with Bashar al-Assad again.

This paper explores how the remote border district of Sinjar in Iraq became a transnational conflict hub that threatens wider security in the Middle East.

A historic opportunity exists to promote multilateral cooperation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, building on recent political de-escalation. With the right design, a new forum could succeed where previous initiatives have failed.

Political settlements in Iraq, Lebanon and Libya have long relied on deals between elites to ensure ‘stability’, but the resulting power-sharing systems fuel corruption and have led to disastrous governance failings. To improve the daily lives of citizens under these settlements, international policymakers must focus on increasing the accountability of elites.

Public facilities are key to managing human displacement crises. With strained resources, sustainable upgrades to buildings can enable states to meet multiple welfare objectives.

With consistent and long-term support from the US, the Abraham Accords could have a transformative impact on Middle East economic cooperation and regional security.

Attacks on health personnel and facilities have been a regular feature of the war in Syria. Lessons from Syria can help develop more robust reporting of attacks in future conflicts.

For Hezbollah, having hybrid status is ideal for maintaining its objective of possessing and exercising power without responsibility to the Lebanese people, writes Lina Khatib.

Corruption has led to the near collapse of the state in Lebanon. While the introduction of legal measures to tackle this issue is a positive step, the effectiveness of these reforms remains uncertain.

The ‘state’ in Iraq and Lebanon is not confined to official structures, and should be understood instead as the embodiment of power relationships between diverse actors such as political parties, armed groups and societal leaders.

Getting to a security framework for the Middle East needs the buy-in of all regional actors, enabled by critical external partners. The time to act is now, argue Sanam Vakil and Neil Quilliam.

Power dynamics within and between de facto authorities and the Syrian regime have allowed corrupt networks and profiteers to emerge.

This paper aims to assist the region’s local authorities, and their key foreign backers, in understanding how transitional justice can provide alternative avenues for holding local ISIS members to account while contributing to the healing of communities.

With restrictions on how and where aid is delivered, this paper offers a new framework for international NGOs and UN agencies to provide help for those in need.

This report examines the common economic factors that continue to drive conflict in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen. It also makes specific recommendations to Western policymakers addressing these types of sub-economies in detail.

Russia and Iran are the most influential external powers supporting the Assad regime and will most likely reap the benefits of Syria’s economic recovery.

The Syrian regime has become increasingly reliant on profiteers and external actors – specifically, Russia and Iran – pursuing their own interests.

In the first of a new annual series, Chatham House experts examine how aspects of the established order in global affairs are shifting.

The Euphrates’ existing resource security challenges have been compounded by upheaval in Syria and Iraq. Without urgent attention, stresses on the river’s resources will add to the catastrophic humanitarian crisis created by the conflict.