South America

If Flávio Bolsonaro wins Brazil’s presidential run-off, he will likely roll back Lula’s deforestation regulations. But the country’s low-carbon transition will be harder to reverse.

A Bolsonaro victory would mean Trump-aligned governments dominate South America.

More than half of critical minerals worldwide are located under or near Indigenous lands. Community protests have interrupted production, so the business case for taking human rights seriously is becoming stronger and stronger.

Two initial meetings sent a worrying signal and Venezuelans are frustrated. The US must apply real pressure for talks to make progress.

The new presidents are part of a swing to the right in Latin American politics – but can they govern such divided societies?

Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella represent opposite ends of the political spectrum. But neither appear to have the solutions to Colombia’s problems.

Two and a half years after Milei came to power and shook up Argentina’s political system, the novelty might be wearing off.

The Keiko-Sánchez contest in this Sunday’s runoff election could tip the country into a deeper crisis. 

Beyond the drama of two rival populists, it is crime policy that may swing Brazil’s October election.

When ‘maximum’ economic pressure fails to bring regime change, and rhetoric has made diplomacy politically impossible, momentum towards military solutions will grow.

The Trump administration has reignited debate over ownership – which is complicated by Argentinian independence, British administration, and the principle of self-determination.

To win a fourth term later this year, Brazil’s leader must show he can condemn Venezuelan authoritarianism while resisting America’s push for Latin-American dominance, writes Feliciano de Sá Guimarães.

The US capture of Nicolás Maduro has raised hopes and fears for the South Florida diaspora. Rachelle Krygier meets some of them to ask their plans.

The US strikes raise questions over China’s policy to forge energy and trade ties with US rivals. But in the long term, Beijing sees itself gaining diplomatic capital through a contrasting role as a stable and peaceful superpower.

The Shield seeks to address serious security and narcotics issues. But a detail-light, ‘Trumpista-only’ alliance repeats past mistakes in Latin America. 

Professor Marc Weller, Director of the International Law Programme, gave evidence to the Committee on 4 February.

After the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, our analysts discuss where in the Western Hemisphere US President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio may turn their attention to next.

Dr Christopher Sabatini, Senior Research Fellow for Latin America, provided evidence on 3 February.

Drugs, migration, China and Venezuela likely to be on the agenda as two outspoken leaders meet in Washington ahead of Colombia’s elections later this year.

US actions in Venezuela and its identification of the Western Hemisphere as a US sphere of influence presents a complex set of challenges for China.

Moscow has prioritized the war in Ukraine over its commitments in Venezuela, Syria and Iran as Trump reshapes the world order.

Even on his own terms, it is unlikely that attacks on any of these very different countries would be anything other than counter-productive for the president.

All in one place – region by region and sector by sector – here is a collection of Chatham House expert commentary from our analysts who assess the global ramifications of the new expansionist US foreign policy, politically, economically and legally.

Chatham House’s leading experts in international law, US affairs and South America discuss what President Donald Trump’s attack on Venezuela and capture of President Nicolás Maduro mean for the global order as we – used to – know it.

Robust long-term oil demand is needed to justify significant investment, but is called into question by the growing popularity of electric vehicles.

A muted response to events in Venezuela shows allies still want to avoid confrontation with Washington. But that approach cannot last if the president seeks to force them into alignment with MAGA policy and cultural politics.

This may be the moment when Western Europe realizes that the US has abandoned the core values that united them for the past century, writes the head of Chatham House’s International Law Programme.

What does it mean for Trump’s popularity at home, for Ukraine and NATO, and for Venezuela’s neighbours in South and Central America?

Chatham House experts highlight the crunch moments and potential flashpoints in the year ahead.

The dual objective is to prevent migration and impose US domination in the ‘Western Hemisphere’. But Latin American leaders will still wish to work with China.

The success of the US plan for a peaceful and prosperous Venezuela hinges on establishing and sustaining an effective, independent judicial system, and improving protection of private property, contract rights and human rights.

As Venezuela adjusts to the post-Maduro era, calls for elections are growing among the opposition and foreign governments. The urgent question is how to act quickly enough to take advantage of the new political situation without neglecting the unavoidably complex political and institutional preparatory reforms essential for ensuring credible elections.

Peru has the potential to play a major role in supply chains for the global energy transition. But its fractured politics is holding it back. Broad-based, inclusive dialogues between government, civil society and private sector interests are essential to build a more equitable and sustainable mining economy.

The technical capabilities of facial recognition have been embraced by law enforcement agencies. Going forward, governments must act to safeguard citizens’ rights.

Venezuela’s recovery from economic collapse and the future prosperity of its citizens depend on the reconstruction of its crisis-ridden electricity system.

The international community must partner effectively with Brazilian stakeholders to conserve the Amazonian forest and foster sustainable economic development.

This paper examines broad legal and institutional reform proposals for Venezuela’s oil and gas sector, and five countries it competes with in global markets.

The paper proposes a definition of sustainable procurement so goods, services, works and utilities achieve value for money on a life-cycle basis.

This paper explores the impacts of large-scale mining on forests, within this wider context of transition.

In the first of a new annual series, Chatham House experts examine how aspects of the established order in global affairs are shifting.