Defence and security

The fall of Assad’s regime is an opportunity for Western powers to right some of their wrongs in Syria and restore faith in the international rules-based system. But this is, and must be, Syria’s moment to lead.

The outgoing director of Chatham House’s International Security Programme shares her first memory of the bomb, what inspired her career in nuclear physics and the amazing women written out of history.

Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz are politically weak and don’t get along. But the EU urgently needs France and Germany to emulate the golden era of François Mitterrand and Helmut Kohl. John Lichfield explains why.

Europe’s leaders have been struggling to deal with war, populist nationalism and a flagging economy. Trump 2.0 sharpens all three challenges and is a necessary wake-up call. José Manuel Barroso explains why.

Europe is facing crisis – in our winter issue, we examine the threats to Europe within and beyond. We also eye up what’s in store for the world in 2025: from Trump’s return to the White House to the likelihood, or otherwise, of a ‘pandemic treaty’ – and more.

This was the question debated by some of the brightest minds at Chatham House’s recent conference of the same name. Armida van Rij offers three take aways from the annual event in Berlin.

As international assistance in the civil war falters, Emergency Response Rooms and other mutual aid groups are offering millions of Sudanese a humanitarian lifeline – and the glimpse of a non-violent future, writes Kholood Khair.

Tel Aviv may have the upper hand over Tehran, but Israel’s 1981 attack on Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor stands as a warning about the risks of miscalculation, writes Marion Messmer.

Russia, China, Iran and North Korea have formed a destructive partnership which isn’t just enabling Putin’s war in Ukraine, but could destabilize the rest of Europe, warns Armida van Rij.

Here’s what Chatham House’s experts will be keeping their eyes on in the year ahead

Russia and Iran-backed militias are moving to prop up Bashar al-Assad, as opposition forces advance. But a political solution remains the only way to end the cycle of violence.

Chatham House staff from the International Security Programme attended the British Interactive Media Association Awards on 20 November to receive a prize for their innovative arms control game.

Timothy Garton Ash, Mujtaba Rahman and Armida van Rij join the podcast to discuss whether Europe’s democracies can withstand sluggish economic growth, Russia’s aggression and the return of Donald Trump.

Transnational conflict in the Middle East is fuelled by both ‘legal’ and ‘illegal’ trade. Mapping these cross-border dynamics can help understand and address violent conflict.

In this episode, Khalid Omer Yousif discusses how Sudan’s broadest anti-war, pro-democracy coalition, Tagadom, aims to bring civilian voices to the fore in a war dictated by military powers, and their plans to the end of Sudan’s war despite mounting atrocities engulfing the country.

A year after 7 October, a viable alternative to the Netanyahu government is needed – alongside international support for those willing to invest in peace.

Israel’s killing of Nasrallah has dealt a devastating blow to Hezbollah. Where it goes from here is highly uncertain.

Gregg Carlstrom joins the podcast to discuss Israel’s decision to intensify attacks against Hezbollah and what this means for the region.

Focusing on three fundamental priorities to help safeguard European security will put NATO in a better position to tackle the many other challenges it faces.

Michael Kofman, Olga Tokariuk and Christopher Miller join the podcast to discuss the state of Russia’s war against Ukraine and the potential role of Western long-range missiles.

International cooperation is needed to deliver civilian protection, scale up humanitarian assistance, leverage the influence of regional actors, and give Sudanese civilians a role in the peace process.

After nearly a year of war in Gaza, Palestinian national politics is more divided than ever. Hamas and Fatah must settle these differences to be ready for ‘the day after’, writes Tahani Mustafa.

A selection of potted reviews from our sister journal International Affairs, by its book reviews editor Mariana Vieira.

The head of Chatham House’s Ukraine Forum reveals how her fellow Ukrainians are preparing for winter, why she chose a career in international relations and why her son would love to live in Kyiv.

Opinion: Nearly a year on from October 7, Israeli society is still reeling. Only the end of the current coalition and a strategic overhaul can give the country the rebirth it needs, writes Eran Etzion.

The synthetic opioid fentanyl has become one of America’s biggest killers. Now even stronger ‘nitazenes’ have begun to emerge from China’s huge chemical industry, prompting fears of a global health crisis. Danny Vincent talks to those on either side of the front line.

Moscow’s agents are trying to destabilize Ukraine’s supporters – but while the Baltic states and Finland are boldly countering Russian espionage, others are more reticent, reports Helen Fitzwilliam.

The organization has failed to give voice to the Global South and the countries it most represents. With new approaches to peacekeeping and trade, an African secretary-general can change this, writes ’Funmi Olonisakin.

Anna Morgan profiles two cash-strapped projects struggling to offer mental health support to soldiers returning from the front line.

A heavy-handed security response to what is widely judged to be a political crisis would be a clear indication that lessons from the past have not been learned.

Russia seeks to rebuild and modernize its armed forces, both to make up for combat losses in Ukraine and to apply lessons from that theatre. The outcome of this project matters deeply for Western security.

This paper provides a detailed analysis of how and when states can respond to violations of international law through the use of countermeasures, with a particular focus on the cyber context.

Whichever party wins the general election, limited resources will prevent an expansive foreign agenda. ‘Realistic ambition’ should be the guiding principle, with a focus on adapting to risks around the US and China, improving relations with the EU, and strengthening the UK’s role in international governance and development.

Tanzania’s rising economic influence and its ambitions for major cross-border infrastructure projects demand a more proactive approach to foreign policy. The policy review currently under way is a chance for the country to reach its potential as a regional leader and reliable global partner.

This paper explores how the remote border district of Sinjar in Iraq became a transnational conflict hub that threatens wider security in the Middle East.

As diverse forms of cooperation between states, international organizations and non-state groups increasingly shape armed conflicts, the need for legal clarity on who qualifies as a party to conflict has never been greater.

Protracted and increasingly complex armed conflicts are impacting the ability of assistance organizations to work in accordance with humanitarian principles. Coherent and shared approaches to the principles and greater local participation are central to improving civilian outcomes.

International humanitarian efforts are disconnected from the people affected by armed conflict contexts. This paper looks at how the international humanitarian system should respond to rejections of humanitarian principles and improve systems of accountability.

Given the continuing existence of rival political institutions and a competitive and divided security sector in Libya, discussion of disarmament, demobilization and reintegration is often viewed as premature. But while there is no blueprint for DDR across Libya as a whole, there is already scope for planning according to local contexts.

Behavioural insights have already been used to enhance the choice architecture in several areas of public policy. This research paper explores their potential for improving decision-making in nuclear weapons policy.

Political settlements in Iraq, Lebanon and Libya have long relied on deals between elites to ensure ‘stability’, but the resulting power-sharing systems fuel corruption and have led to disastrous governance failings. To improve the daily lives of citizens under these settlements, international policymakers must focus on increasing the accountability of elites.

In this research paper, Juliet Skingsley investigates democratic states’ strategies for balancing utility and risk in offensive cyber operations.

This paper explores the regional dimensions of the two-year civil war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region and the potential for successful implementation of the November 2022 peace agreement.

By putting in place climate change adaptation measures, NATO has an opportunity to both strengthen operational resilience and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

This report makes the case for dramatically increased Western military assistance to Ukraine, and counsels against concessions to Russia.

How might a post-Putin Russia look to the outside world? Duncan Allan presents some potential outcomes based on a scenario of a Russian defeat in Ukraine.

More cohesive international engagement is needed to support stability in Ethiopia and Sudan and resolve damaging cross-border disputes that jeopardize security and development across the Horn of Africa.

Belarus – seen as a ‘vassal state’ of Russia – presents challenges for Western policymakers seeking to end repressions and support its pro-democracy movement.

Russian nuclear threats have been highly successful in constraining Western responses to the war on Ukraine. Actual use of nuclear weapons by Russia is unlikely – but must be more firmly deterred.

Europe and the US recognize that their policies and strategies on the Indo-Pacific need to be more coherent. Existing structures such as the G7 and the Quad could become key forums for enhanced cooperation.

Russia’s increasingly militarized approach to polar politics threatens to end the era of low tension in the Arctic and to undermine the stability of the Antarctic Treaty System.

To help sustain the unity of response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UK needs to rebuild its relationship with the EU, expand the role of the G7, and deploy its trade and development policies more strategically.

Human processes and judgments can affect decisions in the nuclear chain of command. Complexity science offers policymakers pathways to reduce escalatory risk.

To forge an effective Russia policy post-Brexit, the UK needs a clear, coherent Russia strategy based on a realistic assessment of its own power and influence.

Specialist international engagement roles within the British armed forces may prove crucial to achieving the objectives of the UK’s Integrated Review.

Persistent past behaviours by the Russian state offer clues to how it can be deterred from hostile action against the West in the future. But this is only possible if the West shows both the will and the ability to defend itself.

Innovations in military technology are enhancing and enabling Russia’s way of war. How should NATO and its allies respond?

This paper examines the potential disruptive impacts that counterterrorism measures and sanctions can have on the work of humanitarian organizations in an armed conflict.

Russia’s strategic deterrent balances the capabilities of its nuclear arsenal with a growing range of non-nuclear forms of deterrence, writes Valeriy Akimenko

This paper examines the rise of the Libyan Arab Armed Forces (LAAF) and whether it still has a role in Libya’s future.