Russia and Eurasia

For some, helping Ukraine is not worth the possibility of war. But if Russia is allowed to continue unopposed, almost everything is at risk.

Orysia Lutsevych and Matthew Savill discuss the Ukraine–US mineral deal and the challenges facing Ukraine in the peace negotiations with Russia.

Central Asia is adept at hedging between Moscow and the West. Much of its success lies in adhering to a single maxim: tell each side what it wants to hear.

Donald Trump values his personal relations with Saudi royals and the kingdom is willing to play the role of host. But with prestige comes expectations.

Israel’s strengthening ties with Russia aligns with a shift in US Russia policy under Trump. But it risks widening an already significant rift with Israel’s European partners.

If Donald Trump believed he could persuade Vladimir Putin to sign up to a comprehensive ceasefire in Ukraine, he is learning the hard way: Russia is interested in peace, but only on its terms.

Washington wants to secure Ukraine’s valuable raw materials in a headline-grabbing deal, but a joint partnership with the EU and Kyiv is mutually beneficial in the long term.

Ukraine has agreed to a ceasefire in principle. But conflicts often intensify when a pause in fighting is being negotiated.

The director of Chatham House’s new Centre for Global Governance and Security on the shift to more ‘transactional’ global relations, civilian suffering in the Donbas and why the era of western dominance is over.

The millions who fled Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 are now facing pressure to return. Olga Tokariuk speaks to some caught in a difficult dilemma.

Trump’s approach to Ukraine is a test for Europe’s ability to adapt to a world of great power politics. To pass it, Europe should reach out to China.

President Trump’s suspension of US military aid to Ukraine underscores the urgent need for Europe to absorb the lessons from Ukraine’s war.

Following the extraordinary events of 28 February, Europe needs unity and resolve to defend Ukraine and help repair Kyiv’s relations with Washington.

Washington hosted a week of relatively friendly talks. But discussions of European security were not productive.

Speakers at a recent Chatham House conference discuss how European states can act to repel Russian aggression.

To the Trump administration, pleasing Russia looks like it solves major problems. But experience shows that those who try, live to regret it.

Timothy Garton Ash, Georgina Wright and Orysia Lutsevych join the podcast to discuss whether Europe can still rely on the United States for its security.

The UK must lead on Ukraine’s defence with clear spending commitments – and invest in European collaboration. 

President Trump refuses to commit the US to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty. Europe must agree how to fill the vacuum to have a hope of influencing negotiations with Putin.

Exhibition draws attention to the emotional and psychological toll of war on Ukrainian youth.

Mark Landler, Francis Dearnley and Orysia Lutsevych join the podcast to discuss whether a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is possible.

The result in the presidential elections was all too predictable. But has a power transition already begun? And can the West prevent continuing Kremlin domination in the country?

Many voters intend to shun this weekend’s presidential election in Belarus, according to research carried out by Chatham House.

Gideon Rachman, Leslie Vinjamuri and Renad Mansour join the podcast to look at the year ahead and discuss whether we are likely to face a more disordered world.

A ceasefire that leaves Ukraine unprotected would only provide a pause before a wider war. Washington and Kyiv must agree viable security guarantees before any negotiations with Putin begin.

Putin’s government considers inflation an existential threat. But Trump’s preoccupation with China may prevent the US exploiting Russian weakness.

Events in Syria have undermined Moscow’s claims to be a reliable security guarantor. But Russia’s position in the country remains secondary to the war in Ukraine.

Europe is facing crisis – in our winter issue, we examine the threats to Europe within and beyond. We also eye up what’s in store for the world in 2025: from Trump’s return to the White House to the likelihood, or otherwise, of a ‘pandemic treaty’ – and more.

Here’s what Chatham House’s experts will be keeping their eyes on in the year ahead

This was the question debated by some of the brightest minds at Chatham House’s recent conference of the same name. Armida van Rij offers three take aways from the annual event in Berlin.

Nearly 7 million people have left Ukraine since 2022. What can be done to encourage refugees to return when it is safe to do so, and to better leverage overseas Ukrainians’ desire to help with reconstruction?

Relations between North Korea and Russia have developed rapidly from a cash-for-weapons exchange to the deployment of North Korean troops. Their partnership now endangers regional and global security, and the US and its partners must take the threat seriously.

As COP29 host, Azerbaijan must dispel doubts about its own capability and commitment by helping countries reach an ambitious climate finance deal.

There are four possible outcomes for Russia’s war on Ukraine: ‘long war’, ‘frozen conflict’, ‘victory for Ukraine’, and ‘defeat for Ukraine’. This paper outlines how these scenarios may take shape, the factors influencing them and the consequences for Ukraine.

Russia seeks to rebuild and modernize its armed forces, both to make up for combat losses in Ukraine and to apply lessons from that theatre. The outcome of this project matters deeply for Western security.

This paper assesses Russia’s cyber and information operations against Ukraine, considers why Ukrainian responses have often been so effective, and outlines potential lessons for other states.

The war is making the challenges of climate change harder to overcome, both in Ukraine and worldwide.

This report makes the case for dramatically increased Western military assistance to Ukraine, and counsels against concessions to Russia.

Ukraine’s government, CSOs and international partners must work to ensure the skills, energy and ambition of the country’s citizens are channelled into transformative recovery planning and delivery.

How might a post-Putin Russia look to the outside world? Duncan Allan presents some potential outcomes based on a scenario of a Russian defeat in Ukraine.

Belarus – seen as a ‘vassal state’ of Russia – presents challenges for Western policymakers seeking to end repressions and support its pro-democracy movement.

Russian nuclear threats have been highly successful in constraining Western responses to the war on Ukraine. Actual use of nuclear weapons by Russia is unlikely – but must be more firmly deterred.

Although the UK is less exposed to the direct effects of the war in Ukraine than other European countries, the indirect and longer-term impact will be significant.

Russia’s increasingly militarized approach to polar politics threatens to end the era of low tension in the Arctic and to undermine the stability of the Antarctic Treaty System.

While the war in Ukraine is having significant global impacts for energy, food and fertilizer markets, it may also aggravate wider economic and social upheaval.

Human processes and judgments can affect decisions in the nuclear chain of command. Complexity science offers policymakers pathways to reduce escalatory risk.

To forge an effective Russia policy post-Brexit, the UK needs a clear, coherent Russia strategy based on a realistic assessment of its own power and influence.

The UK’s current approach to anti-kleptocracy damages its rule of law, its standing as an opponent of international corruption and the integrity of important domestic institutions.

There is potential for complementary agendas in French and German approaches to Russia, but the Franco-German ‘motor’ will not be enough to push through an EU-wide Russia policy.

Innovations in military technology are enhancing and enabling Russia’s way of war. How should NATO and its allies respond?

Persistent past behaviours by the Russian state offer clues to how it can be deterred from hostile action against the West in the future. But this is only possible if the West shows both the will and the ability to defend itself.

Russia’s strategic deterrent balances the capabilities of its nuclear arsenal with a growing range of non-nuclear forms of deterrence, writes Valeriy Akimenko

The resilience of Ukraine’s system of crony capitalism is the underlying obstacle to the development of fully functioning democratic institutions and rule of law, writes John Lough

This report deconstructs 16 of the most prevalent myths that shape contemporary Western thinking on Russia, and explains their detrimental impact on the design and execution of policy.

Ukraine’s media sector faces a wide range of challenges – not least the influence of oligarchs and politicians. This paper explores efforts to improve professional standards and public trust.

Ukraine’s cultural and creative sectors have flourished since the Euromaidan revolution, helping the country to counter divisive Russian narratives and develop a greater sense of national identity.

Although Russia wants to position its Far Eastern region as a logistics hub for closer links with Asia and Europe, there are inadequacies in the infrastructure.

Despite Russia’s aggression, economic pressure and information war, Ukraine has managed to preserve its statehood and democratic reforms.

Instead of trying to resolve an unresolvable contradiction, Western policymakers should acknowledge the starkness of the Minsk conundrum.

How is it possible for the directors of the Russian economy to pursue an orthodox stabilization policy and yet achieve so little to stem growth slowdown?