Independent Thinking: What will be the flashpoints of 2025?

Gideon Rachman, Leslie Vinjamuri and Renad Mansour join the podcast to look at the year ahead and discuss whether we are likely to face a more disordered world.

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10 January 2025 30 minute listen

A general view of the city's destroyed buildings on 15 February 2024 in Avdiivka district, Ukraine.

Trump’s economic policies may prove surprisingly benign in the short term. But steps that undermine domestic US institutions and international alliances would do serious and lasting damage.

While engaging with China’s leaders can be beneficial, it must be underpinned by a clear strategy to counter covert influence and manage the risks of economic and technological dependencies.

Explaining the link between heatwaves and climate change, the impacts of extreme heat, and what governments and cities are doing to adapt.

A ceasefire that leaves Ukraine unprotected would only provide a pause before a wider war. Washington and Kyiv must agree viable security guarantees before any negotiations with Putin begin.

Putin’s government considers inflation an existential threat. But Trump’s preoccupation with China may prevent the US exploiting Russian weakness.

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Gideon Rachman, Leslie Vinjamuri and Renad Mansour join the podcast to look at the year ahead and discuss whether we are likely to face a more disordered world.

Trump’s commitment to NATO is questionable. The EU cannot hope to deter Russia effectively without closer cooperation with Ankara.

Experts from across Chatham House look at the key challenges and achievements of the 39th president of the United States.

Syrians in Tripoli gathered at night waving flags of the Syrian opposition

Libya’s trajectory offers lessons for those seeking peaceful transition in Syria.

Assad’s departure could help Turkey become a key point of transit for natural gas. But renewable energy may offer the more promising avenue for cooperation with a new Syrian regime.

Tehran is considering whether weaponizing its nuclear programme or making a deal with the US provides better protection from further Israeli action.

People celebrate with anti-government fighters at Umayyad Square in Damascus on 8 December 2024.

Haid Haid, Gideon Rachman and Rana Rahimpour join the podcast to discuss the collapse of Bashar-al Assad’s regime in Syria and what it means for the wider region.

Events in Syria have undermined Moscow’s claims to be a reliable security guarantor. But Russia’s position in the country remains secondary to the war in Ukraine.

People hold a banner featuring Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at a gathering of Syrian community and supporters celebrating the fall of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.

Turkey feels its longstanding support of the Syrian opposition has now been vindicated. But its increased influence in Damascus also comes with significant responsibilities.

The brief imposition of martial law and domestic infighting risks sidetracking the country at a time of intensified threat.

The fall of Assad’s regime is an opportunity for Western powers to right some of their wrongs in Syria and restore faith in the international rules-based system. But this is, and must be, Syria’s moment to lead.

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Failed states and criminality are driving record numbers of people to the US border. The resulting crisis of polarization may be regional, but the response should be global, writes Christopher Sabatini.

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The former UN humanitarian chief tells Iona Allan about the impunity he sees in Gaza and Sudan, the failings of the Security Council and why aid is not a substitute for ‘principled’ conflict mediation.

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As international assistance in the civil war falters, Emergency Response Rooms and other mutual aid groups are offering millions of Sudanese a humanitarian lifeline – and the glimpse of a non-violent future, writes Kholood Khair.

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Gabriel Gatehouse and Matthew Sweet discuss what America’s rampant conspiracy culture means for truth and democracy now that some of its leading proponents may soon be in office.

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Europe’s leaders have been struggling to deal with war, populist nationalism and a flagging economy. Trump 2.0 sharpens all three challenges and is a necessary wake-up call. José Manuel Barroso explains why.

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A nascent far-right movement has exploited concerns about high immigration and a housing shortage. And despite poor electoral results, it remains a force in Irish politics, writes Shane Harrison.

a group of young women in headscarves sit on the floor in dark classroom looking ahead

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Banned from much work, high school and speaking in public, women are subject to ever-worsening oppression at the hands of the Taliban. Zahra Joya meets the activists staging small acts of resistance against this ‘gender apartheid’.

Grid of headshots of Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Kim Jong Un and Ayatollah Ali Khameneih

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Russia, China, Iran and North Korea have formed a destructive partnership which isn’t just enabling Putin’s war in Ukraine, but could destabilize the rest of Europe, warns Armida van Rij.

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Tel Aviv may have the upper hand over Tehran, but Israel’s 1981 attack on Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor stands as a warning about the risks of miscalculation, writes Marion Messmer.

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The 2019 uprising ended violently, but young people’s fight for a better future carries on. Hayder Al Shakeri meets the activists adopting new tactics to tackle Iraq’s most pressing challenge yet.

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Without reform of the crucial clothing industry, Yunus and his interim government will struggle to pull off a democratic transition, writes Patrick Schröder.

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