Amid soaring US debt, can Trump balance fiscal challenges with campaign promises?

How Trump and Congress address looming fiscal challenges will have far-reaching consequences that could affect the foundations of US economic power.

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21 January 2025 3 minute read

Residents look at their burned Altadena home, where a US flag is draped on the debris

The fires showed US vulnerability to severe climate events – and the need to prioritize financing for climate resilient infrastructure, regulation of construction, and funding of emergency services.

A cheering crowd surrounds a truck carrying soldiers and flying the Sudanese flag.

Biden’s sanctions may close the door on US mediation between the RSF and SAF. But Trump could build on them to bring about an inflection point in the war.

Trump seems to have pushed Biden’s deal over the line. But the international community must maintain pressure on the parties to engage on a political settlement.

Sanam Vakil, Leslie Vinjamuri, Amjad Iraqi and Yossi Mekelberg join the podcast to discuss the long-awaited deal and Donald Trump’s role in its agreement.

The incoming US administration must reduce uncertainty over its stance on China or risk accidental escalation over flashpoints like Taiwan and the South China Sea.

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This year, Africa will be the second-fastest-growing region globally. But persistent problems, including poverty, the effects of climate change, and weak governance, are fuelling widespread social frustration.

How Trump and Congress address looming fiscal challenges will have far-reaching consequences that could affect the foundations of US economic power.

As the UK reviews its relationship with China, cooperation on climate change offers the prospect of tangible progress on an issue of mutual concern and global significance.

It will be harder for China to balance the needs of its faltering economy with its international relations priorities. But there may be opportunities with Trump the dealmaker.

If Trump’s activity is meant to bend existing alliances to US advantage, Europe should deal. If he genuinely intends to undermine national sovereignty, a tough line will be necessary.

New Centre, led by Dr Samir Puri, will see four Chatham House programmes collaborate on research to improve and reform global institutions.

Gideon Rachman, Leslie Vinjamuri and Renad Mansour join the podcast to look at the year ahead and discuss whether we are likely to face a more disordered world.

Trump’s economic policies may prove surprisingly benign in the short term. But steps that undermine domestic US institutions and international alliances would do serious and lasting damage.

While engaging with China’s leaders can be beneficial, it must be underpinned by a clear strategy to counter covert influence and manage the risks of economic and technological dependencies.

A ceasefire that leaves Ukraine unprotected would only provide a pause before a wider war. Washington and Kyiv must agree viable security guarantees before any negotiations with Putin begin.

Russian President Vladimir Putin leaves the stage during the Russia Calling! VTB Forum on December 4, 2024, in Moscow, Russia.

Putin’s government considers inflation an existential threat. But Trump’s preoccupation with China may prevent the US exploiting Russian weakness.

Trump’s commitment to NATO is questionable. The EU cannot hope to deter Russia effectively without closer cooperation with Ankara.

Experts from across Chatham House look at the key challenges and achievements of the 39th president of the United States.

Syrians in Tripoli gathered at night waving flags of the Syrian opposition

Libya’s trajectory offers lessons for those seeking peaceful transition in Syria.

An aerial view of an LNG vessel at Marmara Ereglisi LNG Storage Facility

Assad’s departure could help Turkey become a key point of transit for natural gas. But renewable energy may offer the more promising avenue for cooperation with a new Syrian regime.

Haid Haid, Gideon Rachman and Rana Rahimpour join the podcast to discuss the collapse of Bashar-al Assad’s regime in Syria and what it means for the wider region.

Events in Syria have undermined Moscow’s claims to be a reliable security guarantor. But Russia’s position in the country remains secondary to the war in Ukraine.

People hold a banner featuring Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at a gathering of Syrian community and supporters celebrating the fall of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.

Turkey feels its longstanding support of the Syrian opposition has now been vindicated. But its increased influence in Damascus also comes with significant responsibilities.

Tehran is considering whether weaponizing its nuclear programme or making a deal with the US provides better protection from further Israeli action.

A crowd of people carrying coloured lights rally against South Korean Yoon Suk Yeol in Seoul, South Korea

The brief imposition of martial law and domestic infighting risks sidetracking the country at a time of intensified threat.

Syrians gather at Umayyad Square, a woman in the foreground holds a scuplture of an eagle.

The fall of Assad’s regime is an opportunity for Western powers to right some of their wrongs in Syria and restore faith in the international rules-based system. But this is, and must be, Syria’s moment to lead.

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Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz are politically weak and don’t get along. But the EU urgently needs France and Germany to emulate the golden era of François Mitterrand and Helmut Kohl. John Lichfield explains why.

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Failed states and criminality are driving record numbers of people to the US border. The resulting crisis of polarization may be regional, but the response should be global, writes Christopher Sabatini.

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The former UN humanitarian chief tells Iona Allan about the impunity he sees in Gaza and Sudan, the failings of the Security Council and why aid is not a substitute for ‘principled’ conflict mediation.

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As international assistance in the civil war falters, Emergency Response Rooms and other mutual aid groups are offering millions of Sudanese a humanitarian lifeline – and the glimpse of a non-violent future, writes Kholood Khair.

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Gabriel Gatehouse and Matthew Sweet discuss what America’s rampant conspiracy culture means for truth and democracy now that some of its leading proponents may soon be in office.

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Europe’s leaders have been struggling to deal with war, populist nationalism and a flagging economy. Trump 2.0 sharpens all three challenges and is a necessary wake-up call. José Manuel Barroso explains why.

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A nascent far-right movement has exploited concerns about high immigration and a housing shortage. And despite poor electoral results, it remains a force in Irish politics, writes Shane Harrison.

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Banned from much work, high school and speaking in public, women are subject to ever-worsening oppression at the hands of the Taliban. Zahra Joya meets the activists staging small acts of resistance against this ‘gender apartheid’.

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Russia, China, Iran and North Korea have formed a destructive partnership which isn’t just enabling Putin’s war in Ukraine, but could destabilize the rest of Europe, warns Armida van Rij.

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