Independent Thinking: What will be the flashpoints of 2025?

Gideon Rachman, Leslie Vinjamuri and Renad Mansour join the podcast to look at the year ahead and discuss whether we are likely to face a more disordered world.

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10 January 2025 30 minute listen

A general view of the city's destroyed buildings on 15 February 2024 in Avdiivka district, Ukraine.

Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox will share her perspective on the prospects for global governance and international order in 2025.

Trump’s economic policies may prove surprisingly benign in the short term. But steps that undermine domestic US institutions and international alliances would do serious and lasting damage.

While engaging with China’s leaders can be beneficial, it must be underpinned by a clear strategy to counter covert influence and manage the risks of economic and technological dependencies.

A ceasefire that leaves Ukraine unprotected would only provide a pause before a wider war. Washington and Kyiv must agree viable security guarantees before any negotiations with Putin begin.

Explaining the link between heatwaves and climate change, the impacts of extreme heat, and what governments and cities are doing to adapt.

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Research focuses on the regional implications of Syria’s 2024 revolution – and foreign and domestic policy in Lebanon and Jordan.

Research and analysis explores US foreign policy, economic issues, and the implications of the 2024 presidential election.

Research includes work on the ongoing peace process, Palestine’s accession to the ICC, and the constantly evolving situation in Gaza.

Research examines different models of governance and political traditions across the world, as well as how opinions and decision structures affect society.

Examining how well the United Nations functions in its role to promote international co-operation and to create and maintain international order.

Examining how Ukraine can be best supported to end the Russian invasion, and successfully rebuild its society, infrastructure, and economy.

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Gideon Rachman, Leslie Vinjamuri and Renad Mansour join the podcast to look at the year ahead and discuss whether we are likely to face a more disordered world.

Putin’s government considers inflation an existential threat. But Trump’s preoccupation with China may prevent the US exploiting Russian weakness.

Trump’s commitment to NATO is questionable. The EU cannot hope to deter Russia effectively without closer cooperation with Ankara.

Experts from across Chatham House look at the key challenges and achievements of the 39th president of the United States.

Libya’s trajectory offers lessons for those seeking peaceful transition in Syria.

Assad’s departure could help Turkey become a key point of transit for natural gas. But renewable energy may offer the more promising avenue for cooperation with a new Syrian regime.

Turkey feels its longstanding support of the Syrian opposition has now been vindicated. But its increased influence in Damascus also comes with significant responsibilities.

Tehran is considering whether weaponizing its nuclear programme or making a deal with the US provides better protection from further Israeli action.

Haid Haid, Gideon Rachman and Rana Rahimpour join the podcast to discuss the collapse of Bashar-al Assad’s regime in Syria and what it means for the wider region.

Events in Syria have undermined Moscow’s claims to be a reliable security guarantor. But Russia’s position in the country remains secondary to the war in Ukraine.

The brief imposition of martial law and domestic infighting risks sidetracking the country at a time of intensified threat.

The fall of Assad’s regime is an opportunity for Western powers to right some of their wrongs in Syria and restore faith in the international rules-based system. But this is, and must be, Syria’s moment to lead.

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Tel Aviv may have the upper hand over Tehran, but Israel’s 1981 attack on Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor stands as a warning about the risks of miscalculation, writes Marion Messmer.

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The 2019 uprising ended violently, but young people’s fight for a better future carries on. Hayder Al Shakeri meets the activists adopting new tactics to tackle Iraq’s most pressing challenge yet.

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Without reform of the crucial clothing industry, Yunus and his interim government will struggle to pull off a democratic transition, writes Patrick Schröder.

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This was the question debated by some of the brightest minds at Chatham House’s recent conference of the same name. Armida van Rij offers three take aways from the annual event in Berlin.

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Europe is facing crisis – in our winter issue, we examine the threats to Europe within and beyond. We also eye up what’s in store for the world in 2025: from Trump’s return to the White House to the likelihood, or otherwise, of a ‘pandemic treaty’ – and more.

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Here’s what Chatham House’s experts will be keeping their eyes on in the year ahead

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Were you paying attention during another tumultuous year in global affairs? Pit yourself against our multiple-choice quiz to find out…

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The third global AI summit convenes amid fears the EU is falling behind America and China in the race to exploit the economic potential of artificial intelligence, writes Georgia Cole.

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The outgoing director of Chatham House’s International Security Programme shares her first memory of the bomb, what inspired her career in nuclear physics and the amazing women written out of history.

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A potted selection of reviews from our sister journal International Affairs, by its book reviews editor Mariana Vieira.

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Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz are politically weak and don’t get along. But the EU urgently needs France and Germany to emulate the golden era of François Mitterrand and Helmut Kohl. John Lichfield explains why.

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Failed states and criminality are driving record numbers of people to the US border. The resulting crisis of polarization may be regional, but the response should be global, writes Christopher Sabatini.

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The former UN humanitarian chief tells Iona Allan about the impunity he sees in Gaza and Sudan, the failings of the Security Council and why aid is not a substitute for ‘principled’ conflict mediation.

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As international assistance in the civil war falters, Emergency Response Rooms and other mutual aid groups are offering millions of Sudanese a humanitarian lifeline – and the glimpse of a non-violent future, writes Kholood Khair.

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Gabriel Gatehouse and Matthew Sweet discuss what America’s rampant conspiracy culture means for truth and democracy now that some of its leading proponents may soon be in office.

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Europe’s leaders have been struggling to deal with war, populist nationalism and a flagging economy. Trump 2.0 sharpens all three challenges and is a necessary wake-up call. José Manuel Barroso explains why.

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A nascent far-right movement has exploited concerns about high immigration and a housing shortage. And despite poor electoral results, it remains a force in Irish politics, writes Shane Harrison.

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Banned from much work, high school and speaking in public, women are subject to ever-worsening oppression at the hands of the Taliban. Zahra Joya meets the activists staging small acts of resistance against this ‘gender apartheid’.

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What will the US election result mean for the US and for the world?

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