Belarus

Research and analysis combine close monitoring of political developments with building longer-term strategies for Belarus.

Image — Belarusians hold a giant former white-red-white flag of Belarus used in opposition to the Lukashenka government, during a demonstration in Minsk following the 2020 presidential election. Photo by SERGEI GAPON/AFP via Getty Images.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka declared himself the winner of the 2025 election, making him one of the longest-serving heads of state in the world.

In the years before the election, Lukashenka reconfigured the country’s political system to secure his future. Debates continue over the timing and nature of a power transition, as well as Lukashenka’s true intentions, but changes are already underway. The implications are difficult to predict, but they are likely to create challenges for Belarusian political actors across the spectrum and for the West.

Featured

Russia sees Belarus as a strategic asset in its confrontations with Ukraine and NATO. For the sake of regional security, Western governments must encourage Minsk towards a more neutral stance.

Open access

In exchange for sanctions relief, America has gained release for some 500 political prisoners in Belarus and is aiming for 900 more by year’s end. But distancing Lukashenka from Putin is another matter, says Natalya Kovaleva.

Member content

Interview: Ryhor Astapenia tells Sara Seth how the West must deploy sanctions relief and soft power to break Minsk’s longstanding ties with the Kremlin.

While the US has eased sanctions on Belarus in exchange for the release of political prisoners, the EU is toughening its stance. Is there potential for re-engagement between Brussels and Minsk?

With Russia focused on its war in Ukraine, Aliaksandr Lukashenka is downplaying the drills to show that Belarus wants to ease tensions with the West – reflecting a genuine fear of escalation.

The result in the presidential elections was all too predictable. But has a power transition already begun? And can the West prevent continuing Kremlin domination in the country?

Many voters intend to shun this weekend’s presidential election in Belarus, according to research carried out by Chatham House.

Experts discuss the state of Western policy toward Belarus, how the war in Ukraine has changed perceptions of Belarus, and what more the West can do.

Anaïs Marin, UN special rapporteur on human rights in Belarus, describes the situation in the country, which has been going from bad to worse since August 2020.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka has capitalized on the conflict, but his regime’s dependence on Russia is eroding Belarusian sovereignty.

Episode 25 of our weekly podcast examines Russia’s nuclear weapons moving into Belarus and the equipping of Belarusian forces with dual-use equipment and tech.

Experts discuss how Russia’s war in Ukraine has already changed Belarus as it has become a focal point for the international community.

Explaining the history, purpose, and political background to the Eurasian Economic Union.

The Ukraine invasion has detrimental consequences for the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union, a project which has been stumbling since its inception.

As Russia is using Belarus in its invasion of Ukraine, experts analyze the role of Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s regime, and its impact on Belarusian sovereignty.

Results of a public opinion poll conducted between 1 and 10 November 2021.

By engineering a crisis at the Belarus border, Lukashenka is attempting to exacerbate vulnerabilities within the EU. Securitizing migration is not the answer.

$Outside a cafe in Oktyabrskaya Street in Minsk, Belarus, part of the Tsekh art space, bars, and cafes are located in a former iron foundry. Photo by Natalia Fedosenko\TASS via Getty Images.$

Increasing polarization of society is a threat to the future of Belarus as disinformation, propaganda, and support for closer integration with Russia grows.

Open access

The jailed Belarusian opposition activist says: ‘It’s worth it’

A tripartite group of the UK, US, and EU mapping out a common approach to Belarus can only be effective if discussions include how to deal with Russia.

Results of a public opinion poll conducted between 20 and 30 April 2021.

Diverting a Ryanair aircraft shows Lukashenka cares little for his country’s standing with the West – but closer ties to Moscow means more military cooperation.

The future still looks bleak for Lukashenka, but he is proving difficult to depose. Although most Belarusians want him gone, their revolution feels on hold.

The Nur Otan ruling party swept the parliamentary elections, underscoring the continued hold on power of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev.

Protests by Belarusians are not only about removing the Lukashenka regime, they are also uniting and reinventing the nation.

Five key takeaways from analysing the results of a public opinion poll about Belarus following weeks of protest at the re-election of Aliaksandr Lukashenka.

Member content

Belarusian protests are instilling a new national consciousness, writes Katia Glod

Outlining the key steps that government, international institutions, and NGOs can take to bring an end to the suffering of the Belarus people.

A referral of election violence in Belarus to the International Criminal Court could enhance the support for the Belarusian people at other crucial platforms.

In a bid to reassert control in Belarus, Aliaksandr Lukashenka is trying to stir the worst fears of his supporters by playing the war card. But overplaying his hand could prove disastrous if it leads to confrontation with either Russia or NATO.

Protesters in Belarus face a dilemma, as being too successful in confronting the Belarusian regime could mean they end up having to reckon with Russian forces as well.

Research publications

Belarus – seen as a ‘vassal state’ of Russia – presents challenges for Western policymakers seeking to end repressions and support its pro-democracy movement.

This report deconstructs 16 of the most prevalent myths that shape contemporary Western thinking on Russia, and explains their detrimental impact on the design and execution of policy.

Building the resilience of societies and institutions offers a potentially viable strategy for the three countries to achieve more secure and less damaging cohabitation with Russia.

Event recordings

In conversation with Nobel Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski and political activist Maria Kalesnikava.

Experts will analyse how US engagement with the Lukashenka regime affects Belarus, broader Western policy, and efforts to contain Russia.

This panel explores the current state and future of Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s rule at its ‘vulnerable’ voting time.

Experts discuss how Belarus’s role has evolved during the war against Ukraine.

This conference takes a deep-dive into the implications of the war for the wider region.

This event examines Belarus’ future in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Discussion on the situation in Belarus, and what the future holds for a country often referred to as Europe’s last dictatorship.

This event examines key events happening in Belarus’ political sphere.

This briefing addresses the geopolitical context behind Zapad-2021 and explains Russian training and large-scale drills across Russia and Belarus.

This meeting analyses the current Western position towards Belarus and asks what practical solutions the West can use to prevent, or at least limit, human rights abuses.