Belarus

Research and analysis combine close monitoring of political developments with building longer-term strategies for Belarus.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka declared himself the winner of the 2025 election, making him one of the longest-serving heads of state in the world.

In the years before the election, Lukashenka reconfigured the country’s political system to secure his future. Debates continue over the timing and nature of a power transition, as well as Lukashenka’s true intentions, but changes are already underway. The implications are difficult to predict, but they are likely to create challenges for Belarusian political actors across the spectrum and for the West.