Economics and trade

Here’s what Chatham House’s experts will be keeping their eyes on in the year ahead

Without reform of the crucial clothing industry, Yunus and his interim government will struggle to pull off a democratic transition, writes Patrick Schröder.

James Landale, Anand Menon and Olivia O’Sullivan join the podcast to review UK foreign policy under the Labour government so far – and look at the challenges ahead.

The country offers a bridge to Western markets for Chinese makers of electric vehicles. President Xi’s visit shows how important China regards its domination of the industry.

Plastics producers at the INC-5 talks resisted curbs on production that others insist are essential. But negotiators have another chance early next year.

The time the prime minister is spending abroad is justified but voters must be convinced of the links between domestic and international concerns.

In this episode, Professor Carlos Lopes discusses what the African Union’s G20 membership means for Africa’s economic and geopolitical influence on the global stage.

Transnational conflict in the Middle East is fuelled by both ‘legal’ and ‘illegal’ trade. Mapping these cross-border dynamics can help understand and address violent conflict.

Although Trump favours a weaker exchange rate, his policies are likely to have the opposite effect. The risk is that the US dollar could become too strong, which is bad news for the global economy.

The coalition could not agree how to fund new support for Ukraine and failed to fully implement the ‘Zeitenwende’. A new government must push through reform.

The budget marks the lowest amount in decades the country has spent on development, and it is struggling to fund other international priorities too.

Donald Trump’s election victory will bring immediate costs for US allies, says Bronwen Maddox, and will remake the map of American partnership.

Patrick Wintour and Ranil Dissanayake join the podcast ahead of the UK Budget to discuss the high debt facing G7 economies and its impact on foreign, defence and development policies.

Traditional allies of the US need to find a way to work together on some global policy issues even when the US itself is not engaged. A ‘G6 plus’ group could provide an answer.

The UK decision was welcomed by India and the US, and shows a capacity for fresh thinking. But the transfer of sovereignty must be handled carefully.

Sanctions regimes are intended to be preferable to military force, but do they work to change behaviour or end up hurting citizens rather than governments or leaders?

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump could not be more different when it comes to trade, despite a changed economic landscape.

The pretence of cooperation is over as Beijing prepares for America’s next president.

The contestation over gold – and its connection to transnational networks – is becoming a major driver of Ethiopia’s complex conflicts.

The economy will be the key issue for voters in Sri Lanka’s upcoming presidential election, set against a backdrop of geopolitical rivalry.

Although many countries would like to see an alternative to the US dollar, its dominance is unlikely to come to an end anytime soon.

Chinese engagement with Africa is on an uptick after a period of decline.

Private investment is key to closing the vast gap in climate finance, but too little is reaching the world’s most vulnerable countries. COP29 is an opportunity to change this, writes Thierry Watrin.

The informal group of emerging markets may lack coherence, but ending the dollar’s dominance has become a theme – and digital currency innovations offer interesting possibilities, writes David Lubin.

Other countries are doing better jobs of mending fences in Africa and Asia. But the new government has an opportunity to improve post-colonial relations with historical tact and diplomatic generosity, writes Samir Puri.

The synthetic opioid fentanyl has become one of America’s biggest killers. Now even stronger ‘nitazenes’ have begun to emerge from China’s huge chemical industry, prompting fears of a global health crisis. Danny Vincent talks to those on either side of the front line.

The organization has failed to give voice to the Global South and the countries it most represents. With new approaches to peacekeeping and trade, an African secretary-general can change this, writes ’Funmi Olonisakin.

Brazil’s president is likely to target ‘softer’ issues at this November’s gathering – but, analysts tell James Orr, his agenda to raise $250 billion from the super-rich and boost the Global South is ambitious.

A series of international affairs events are being held at the UK Labour and Conservative Party conferences this autumn.

Efforts to co-opt opposition and externalize blame are familiar tools in Kenyan politics, but may be ill-equipped to address the demands of a new youth protest phenomenon and the realities of Kenya’s fiscal struggles.

Sustainable bioeconomies can play a significant role in the climate transition and in protecting nature, but this will only be possible with more strategic coordination on innovation, investment and international policy.

Amid concern about lack of progress on the SDGs, an opportunity is emerging to put the ‘circular economy’ at the heart of international action on everything from tackling climate change to reducing poverty.

Whichever party wins the general election, limited resources will prevent an expansive foreign agenda. ‘Realistic ambition’ should be the guiding principle, with a focus on adapting to risks around the US and China, improving relations with the EU, and strengthening the UK’s role in international governance and development.

Tanzania’s rising economic influence and its ambitions for major cross-border infrastructure projects demand a more proactive approach to foreign policy. The policy review currently under way is a chance for the country to reach its potential as a regional leader and reliable global partner.

For Western governments, India’s status as the world’s largest democracy is one of the key pillars for engagement with New Delhi, even though India rarely uses democracy promotion as an overt tool of its foreign policy. There is potential, too, for an erosion of India’s democratic credentials to limit the scope for cooperation in particularly sensitive areas, and to raise questions about India’s claim to offer a worldview that is non-Western but not explicitly anti-Western.

Amid civil war and territorial rivalry on both sides of the Ethiopia–Sudan border, sesame has become central to a conflict economy that perpetuates violence and political instability.

As climate change and the trade of water-intensive goods exacerbate global water scarcity, how can importers of commodity products improve the sustainable use of water at sites of production?

Based on a new global review of laboratory accident reporting, this Chatham House research paper presents the case for a sustainable and risk-based approach to biosafety.

Civic freedoms and space are critical to stable, profitable and sustainable business environments. But investor awareness remains limited.

Sustainable finance taxonomies could help incentivize additional investment for circular economy initiatives. The EU’s taxonomy offers lessons on how to leverage taxonomies to accelerate the transition to a circular economy.

The ‘net zero’ transition will require a massive reallocation of private capital from high- to low-carbon assets in coming decades. Action by central banks, financial regulators and industry coalitions will be critical to this process.

Global economic and financial institutions have been ill equipped to date to support climate action. What reforms are realistically possible?

Zambia’s recent approach to international relations has boosted the country’s prominence, but further domestic focus is needed to make this a sustainable policy shift.

Global trade continues to face multiple challenges as the risks of deepening tensions between the US and China, along with those of an escalation of Russia’s war on Ukraine, weigh on economies.

A global approach is the only way to tackle debt distress in Africa. This will require strategic cooperation between China, the West and African nations.

This paper assesses plans for investment in a sustainable economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, and examines how such efforts could transform international development cooperation.

The Trade and Technology Council (TTC) has become the main platform for US–EU trade and tech cooperation. But the US and the EU must turn ambitions into tangible outcomes if the TTC is to tackle significant global issues.

Europe and the US recognize that their policies and strategies on the Indo-Pacific need to be more coherent. Existing structures such as the G7 and the Quad could become key forums for enhanced cooperation.

This paper analyses the contentious and complex issue of Loss and Damage finance by examining the perspectives of different countries.

While current food systems hinder efforts towards climate and biodiversity goals, a transformation in the way food is produced could enable progress on these crises this decade.

International trade is an essential component of the transition to a circular economy. Collective action at the global level can help ensure that all countries benefit equally from the circular economy transition.

From the international through to the local level, inclusive approaches are needed to ensure effective governance of forests and promote the sustainable use of land.

Although the UK is less exposed to the direct effects of the war in Ukraine than other European countries, the indirect and longer-term impact will be significant.

In 2021 G7 leaders pledged to build back a better world. They now need to redouble their efforts to make sure that this ambition is fulfilled.

While the war in Ukraine is having significant global impacts for energy, food and fertilizer markets, it may also aggravate wider economic and social upheaval.

To help sustain the unity of response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UK needs to rebuild its relationship with the EU, expand the role of the G7, and deploy its trade and development policies more strategically.

This paper examines the collection and disbursement of forest sector revenues in three African countries following efforts to improve transparency and accountability.

To forge an effective Russia policy post-Brexit, the UK needs a clear, coherent Russia strategy based on a realistic assessment of its own power and influence.

Venezuela’s recovery from economic collapse and the future prosperity of its citizens depend on the reconstruction of its crisis-ridden electricity system.

The UK’s current approach to anti-kleptocracy damages its rule of law, its standing as an opponent of international corruption and the integrity of important domestic institutions.