Research publications

Relations between North Korea and Russia have developed rapidly from a cash-for-weapons exchange to the deployment of North Korean troops. Their partnership now endangers regional and global security, and the US and its partners must take the threat seriously.

Peru has the potential to play a major role in supply chains for the global energy transition. But its fractured politics is holding it back. Broad-based, inclusive dialogues between government, civil society and private sector interests are essential to build a more equitable and sustainable mining economy.

International cooperation can help governments manage the costs and risks of reliance on BECCS and DACCS in net zero strategies. But even where costs are minimized, this does not mean that these technologies are low-cost solutions.

There remains a huge gap between the trillions of dollars of financing needed to support climate action and the amounts of money currently being deployed. This paper proposes new approaches to mobilizing private climate investment to help close this gap.

As COP29 host, Azerbaijan must dispel doubts about its own capability and commitment by helping countries reach an ambitious climate finance deal.

Sustainable bioeconomies can play a significant role in the climate transition and in protecting nature, but this will only be possible with more strategic coordination on innovation, investment and international policy.

This paper examines the policy challenges arising from the commercialization of cyber intrusion capabilities, and puts forward a set of principles to help governments and wider society navigate markets in which these capabilities can be bought and sold as products and services by states, companies and criminals.

There are four possible outcomes for Russia’s war on Ukraine: ‘long war’, ‘frozen conflict’, ‘victory for Ukraine’, and ‘defeat for Ukraine’. This paper outlines how these scenarios may take shape, the factors influencing them and the consequences for Ukraine.

Corruption is a persistent problem in Nigeria’s judicial system and public procurement. This paper presents survey data on public attitudes, and explores how these can be harnessed to drive anti-corruption efforts forward.

The sustained backing of reform-minded officials within Iraq, alongside durable support from international stakeholders, will be essential to fostering an environment in which young political and civil society actors and entrepreneurs can work together to overcome systemic barriers to change.

Amid concern about lack of progress on the SDGs, an opportunity is emerging to put the ‘circular economy’ at the heart of international action on everything from tackling climate change to reducing poverty.

The examples of Afghanistan and Ukraine offer insights and lessons for policymakers and private sector actors on how to build and maintain a resilient internet in future conflict and crisis situations.

Despite legislative efforts and cooperation with the EU, migration through Niger and Libya to Europe has grown significantly in recent years. This paper examines the transnational drivers of this phenomenon, including insecurity in Libya and the mobility economy in Niger.

Exploitation and abuse of Nigerians and other people moving have become a profitable revenue source for armed groups in Libya. Tackling this situation will require both a transnational approach and policy tools beyond those traditionally associated with conflict response.

Against a backdrop of rising tensions, this paper examines the internal and external influences that are shaping China’s policy towards the US and the implications for the wider world.

China’s unique environment for the development and implementation of AI provides critical insights into how this technology may impact workers and businesses around the world.

Cybercrime is a growing threat to global prosperity and national security. Recent attacks against critical services across the world have highlighted the need for countries to take a collaborative and strategic response.

Russia seeks to rebuild and modernize its armed forces, both to make up for combat losses in Ukraine and to apply lessons from that theatre. The outcome of this project matters deeply for Western security.

Increasing use of nuclear energy – due partly to innovations in reactor design – will make it more important than ever to protect civil nuclear facilities from cyberthreats, including by applying existing international law.

A principles-based approach to cyber capacity-building offers significant advantages for countries developing the essential capabilities to defend themselves against ever more sophisticated cyberattacks.

Universal health reforms can be adopted in challenging times, spurred by crisis conditions and despite resource constraints. Sustaining coverage requires financial commitment and thoughtful design.

Regulation alone is struggling to keep pace with advances in AI. This collection of nine essays explores possible solutions for ensuring AI develops safely and responsibly.

Technologies developed by the private sector can exacerbate gendered cyber harms, but also have the potential to counter and mitigate them.

By identifying and understanding the connections between gendered cyber harms, states can take steps to better counter and mitigate these harms.

This paper provides a detailed analysis of how and when states can respond to violations of international law through the use of countermeasures, with a particular focus on the cyber context.

Whichever party wins the general election, limited resources will prevent an expansive foreign agenda. ‘Realistic ambition’ should be the guiding principle, with a focus on adapting to risks around the US and China, improving relations with the EU, and strengthening the UK’s role in international governance and development.

Tanzania’s rising economic influence and its ambitions for major cross-border infrastructure projects demand a more proactive approach to foreign policy. The policy review currently under way is a chance for the country to reach its potential as a regional leader and reliable global partner.

This paper discusses six kinds of humanitarian arrangements intended to provide some security to civilians caught in armed conflict – notifications, evacuations, humanitarian corridors, suspensions of hostilities, protected zones and no-fly zones – outlining relevant international law, identifying operational challenges, and making recommendations for good practice.

For Western governments, India’s status as the world’s largest democracy is one of the key pillars for engagement with New Delhi, even though India rarely uses democracy promotion as an overt tool of its foreign policy. There is potential, too, for an erosion of India’s democratic credentials to limit the scope for cooperation in particularly sensitive areas, and to raise questions about India’s claim to offer a worldview that is non-Western but not explicitly anti-Western.

Amid civil war and territorial rivalry on both sides of the Ethiopia–Sudan border, sesame has become central to a conflict economy that perpetuates violence and political instability.