South Caucasus

Roger Harrabin, Maria Netto and Ruth Townend join the podcast to discuss the COP29 summit in Azerbaijan and how Donald Trump’s re-election could change global climate action.

As tens of thousands take to the streets to protest the election results, Georgia faces a familiar crisis – with a few key differences.

The COP29 summit will see negotiators try to agree how to finance the climate action the world urgently needs.

The two countries face unusually consequential elections where their populations must choose between moving unambiguously towards the West – or towards closer ties with Russia.

Georgia has been captured by a tiny elite – and, one way or another, by Russia.

Containing Russia requires a holistic view of Black Sea security that considers how this is interlinked with the security of adjacent regions.

As Azerbaijan faces transitions in its relations with Armenia and its energy portfolio, this week’s poll secures the leadership into the next decade.

Russia’s paradigm shift in Karabakh illustrates a process of managed decline.

New peace talks are finally inching forward, but the fate of the population caught up in the centre of the conflict remains a key concern.

Europe’s great song competition may strive for continental harmony, but bitter conflicts and voting blocs often drag it off key, writes Saskia Postema.

Episode 19 of our weekly podcast examines the AUKUS deal, UK defence priorities, and the state of Georgia’s democracy following anti-government protests.

The attitude of Russia’s elite – and wider population – to the states which used to constitute the USSR needs to change in order to solve the Russia challenge.

Azerbaijan’s recent attack seeks to enforce terms in negotiations with Armenia, but also shows a wider aim for a more permanent presence.

Explaining the history, purpose, and political background to the Eurasian Economic Union.

Turkey benefits from NATO’s Strategic Concept and is in a celebratory mood over a new deal with Sweden and Finland. But interpretation is the key to success.

Exploring the definition of kleptocracy, the motivations behind it, why it flourishes in certain societies, and its global impact.

The Ukraine invasion has detrimental consequences for the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union, a project which has been stumbling since its inception.

The Ukraine invasion offers the opportunity and cover for Azerbaijan to test Russia’s peacekeeping mission deployed in contested Nagorny Karabakh.

Turkmenistan’s transition ushers in a new hybrid model of governance, but its entrenched authoritarian system and all-pervasive kleptocracy is unlikely to change.

Experts explain how key sectors in Georgia can work together to counter disinformation tactics.

The Ukraine invasion has led Georgia to fast-track its EU membership application, but Tbilisi now urgently needs to tackle Russian disinformation tactics.

Since a ceasefire brought the 2020 Karabakh war to an end, peace initiatives have won only rhetorical support while the reasons driving conflict multiply.

Many Russia watchers recall the fleeting moment 20 years ago when the country could have moved away from a path of confrontation with the US.

Despite 2020’s military defeat, Armenia’s fragile institutions are the real winner of Sunday’s poll, but now face the challenge of dominant power politics.

Through a series of territorial encroachments Azerbaijan is applying maximum pressure in advance of a formal demarcation of its border with Armenia.

The trilateral Armenian-Azerbaijani-Russian agreement may succeed in finally ending the war, but it does not resolve issues at the core of the conflict.

Geopolitics dominates perspectives on the Armenia-Azerbaijan war, but a humanitarian catastrophe is unfolding, aggravated by COVID-19 and the onset of winter.

Whether a ceasefire is possible in a new Armenian-Azerbaijani war and talks can meaningfully resume depends on an elusive international commitment to a long-neglected conflict.

Deadly clashes at the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan have followed renewed disappointment in the peace process, and cast a new shadow over its future.

Hopes the two countries would find ways to reinvigorate long-stagnant negotiations have faltered, despite the sustained reduction in violations of the Nagorny Karabakh ceasefire.

In societies struggling to democratize, social uprisings are an opportunity for new political elites. This paper examines factors for political renewal.

This paper reviews the evolution of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy with regard to Russia and the West, looks at the diplomatic imperatives surrounding the Nagorny Karabakh conflict in more detail, and sets out recommendations for how to mitigate risks for Azerbaijan’s relations with Russia.

This paper explores the evolution of the dilemmas in Armenia’s foreign policy since the 1990s. Its primary aim is to offer an informed background for further discussions, beyond the conventional and stereotypical views that dominate policy thinking on this issue in the West as well as in Armenia.

Regardless of its multiple shortcomings, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) should not be dismissed out of hand.

Briefing Paper