Major powers

In this week’s episode of Independent Thinking, our experts discuss the latest developments in Russia’s war on Ukraine.

US voters are linking economic concerns to the Trump administration’s foreign policy choices. This is bad news for Republicans.

The US decision to extend sanctions has upped the ante in its campaign against the ICC. The Court’s supporters must decide how to respond, perhaps now it is time to put all options on the table.

Polls suggest Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives as American voters are dissatisfied with President Trump and his policies.

A Bolsonaro victory would mean Trump-aligned governments dominate South America.

In this week’s episode of Independent Thinking, our experts discuss the Trump-Xi summit in Washington and the increasing competition between the two superpowers.

Denmark used its soft power to rally support and took the dispute out of the limelight – addressing underlying US interests instead of President Trump’s unacceptable public position.

The US and China both face serious domestic strains. As Trump and Xi meet this week to discuss trade, AI and Taiwan, neither side should mistake the other’s weaknesses for strategic decline.

China absorbed the shock by drawing on stockpiles and a decade of electrification. Europe needs electrification for security, but it needs to decide which parts of the system it is willing to buy from Beijing.

Daily power cuts, fuel shortages and empty shop shelves are part of everyday life for Cubans as they struggle with the worst economic crisis in decades. Photographer Daniel Desormais visited an island bracing itself for America’s next move.

Xi Jinping wants to forge ‘a common destiny for humankind’ by winning over the Global South and taking Taiwan. But if America and Europe are to counter this ‘double pivot’, they must better understand ‘Xi Thought’, argues Steve Tsang.

The administration’s efforts to undermine confidence in the US electoral system could spark a political crisis in November – with consequences for the 2028 presidential race and beyond, writes Bruce Stokes.

In an extended edition of our weekly Independent Thinking podcast, we look back over a quarter of a century to examine the longer-term consequences of 9/11.

The Democrats are projected to make big gains in November’s midterm elections. But this will not necessarily constrain President Trump.

A US crisis is very likely to be associated with a capital outflow, rather than a capital inflow, with the result that the dollar could weaken substantially against other currencies.

As its AI models catch up to US rivals, China wants to set the rules that govern AI use.

Two initial meetings sent a worrying signal and Venezuelans are frustrated. The US must apply real pressure for talks to make progress.

The Trump administration has pushed through another round of tariffs. While they are being challenged in the courts, unpredictable and costly US trade policy is here to stay.

Manufacturing is thriving while household spending is suffering. This seems to reflect a deliberate strategy by Beijing to maximize its geopolitical leverage. Growth suffers as a result.

China wants to become more self-sufficient in food. This could make it easier to fight climate change and improve nutrition worldwide, but there are also risks to global food markets.

Iran has survived war with the US by adapting its doctrine. The US must also change its thinking.

Libyan anti-corruption investigations reveal the limitations of a US push to reunify the country without improving governance.

In this week’s episode of Independent Thinking, our experts discuss how the expansion of presidential power could reshape American democracy.

International law does not permit any country to appoint itself ‘guardian’ of other states’ rights and demand payment. The only realistic solution to the situation in the Strait is a return to negotiations.

Just the day after the 2026 NATO Summit in Ankara, the first session of Chatham House’s 2026 London Conference addressed the future of alliance.

Erosion of public trust in US leadership and the growing Russian threat are opportunities for European NATO allies to build public support for fast and decisive action on defence.

Disagreements over the Iran war and defence procurement threaten to turn the annual summit into another theatre for division and distract from the threat from Russia.

In this episode of Independent Thinking, Bronwen Maddox is joined by Laurel Rapp and Ambassador Tim Davis to discuss America’s international role and its domestic divisions as it approaches the 250th anniversary of its founding.

The most urgent fault line in US politics is between those who believe in the system of government and those who do not. It is, in fact, the foundational US fault line being relitigated for modern times.

Europe cannot affect the course of America’s latest reinvention, as it did 250 years ago. But it can adapt to a more unhappy relationship.

This report proposes the creation of a permanent alliance of market-oriented economies – a ‘third pole’ in the global economy – to preserve and improve the core principles and rules underpinning economic openness, absence of coercion and pursuit of mutual benefit.

With the new US national security strategy demanding greater burden-sharing by Japan and South Korea, officials and policymakers in all three countries must focus on delivering tangible benefits if they are to sustain their trilateral partnership.

South Korea’s new government faces difficult choices in managing its ties with the US, China and North Korea. This paper explores how Seoul can learn from the policies of past governments to balance its commitments to Washington with wider global ambitions.

A widening trade surplus with developing countries complicates China’s geopolitical agenda. Boosting Chinese domestic demand and letting the renminbi appreciate more could ease economic tensions with trade partners in the Global South.

The increased use of sanctions in recent years has caused growing concern about the efficacy and unintended consequences of these measures. This paper looks at how to improve the implementation of sanctions.

The UK cannot avoid deepening bilateral links with China, but policymakers must go much further to mitigate the risks of closer engagement while also insulating the relationship from Sino-US tensions.

Relations between China and India hold great long-term significance for the future of both Asia and the emerging global order. This paper details their relationship and why their competition for influence and status matters to the rest of the world.

As the Trump administration turns away from the US-led post-war international order, how are other states envisioning ‘international order’ and what are their plans for adapting to new realities?

Against a backdrop of rising tensions, this paper examines the internal and external influences that are shaping China’s policy towards the US and the implications for the wider world.

China’s unique environment for the development and implementation of AI provides critical insights into how this technology may impact workers and businesses around the world.

Whichever party wins the general election, limited resources will prevent an expansive foreign agenda. ‘Realistic ambition’ should be the guiding principle, with a focus on adapting to risks around the US and China, improving relations with the EU, and strengthening the UK’s role in international governance and development.

Achieving Xi Jinping’s ambitious agenda of self-reliance in critical technologies will become all the more difficult as the space for creative thinking within China narrows, and opportunities diminish for Chinese scientists to work with peers internationally.

More cohesive international engagement is needed to support stability in Ethiopia and Sudan and resolve damaging cross-border disputes that jeopardize security and development across the Horn of Africa.

With consistent and long-term support from the US, the Abraham Accords could have a transformative impact on Middle East economic cooperation and regional security.

This paper explores the opportunities in China for innovative approaches to climate action that incorporate gender equality and social inclusion.

A global approach is the only way to tackle debt distress in Africa. This will require strategic cooperation between China, the West and African nations.

This paper assesses plans for investment in a sustainable economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, and examines how such efforts could transform international development cooperation.

The Trade and Technology Council (TTC) has become the main platform for US–EU trade and tech cooperation. But the US and the EU must turn ambitions into tangible outcomes if the TTC is to tackle significant global issues.

Europe and the US recognize that their policies and strategies on the Indo-Pacific need to be more coherent. Existing structures such as the G7 and the Quad could become key forums for enhanced cooperation.

In 2021 G7 leaders pledged to build back a better world. They now need to redouble their efforts to make sure that this ambition is fulfilled.

The rise of China is one of the greatest challenges for the transatlantic relationship. Despite similar concerns, fundamental differences could prevent a joined-up European and US approach.

Russia’s increasingly militarized approach to polar politics threatens to end the era of low tension in the Arctic and to undermine the stability of the Antarctic Treaty System.

China has increased its humanitarian aid and diplomatic engagement in displacement crises, but obstacles to deeper involvement remain.

After two decades as a member of the WTO, how has China’s approach to global economic governance enabled the country to achieve its core objectives?

Understanding the role of national and subnational institutions in determining China’s foreign policy is key to working with the country on major global issues.

This paper offers a public policy ‘toolkit’ for governments in the US and Europe to support firms in securing resilient and sustainable supply chains

This paper takes a closer look at how South Korea manages its economic and security relations with the US and China in the context of increased rivalry.

This paper takes a closer look at the EU’s approach to China and how this may change as US–China tensions intensify.

Important political shifts in 2021 could bring greater clarity on Germany’s changing China policy, no matter who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor, writes Noah Barkin.

Getting to a security framework for the Middle East needs the buy-in of all regional actors, enabled by critical external partners. The time to act is now, argue Sanam Vakil and Neil Quilliam.