Russia: Current affairs and analysis

Rewarding Moscow with Crimea would become a template for future violations of sovereignty and a precedent for states with similar aims – notably China.

From the US to Hungary, from Iraq to Ghana, new erosions of minority rights are a warning of democratic backsliding. To fight back this Pride month, new alliances must be formed, says Ari Shaw.

A potted selection of reviews from our sister journal ‘International Affairs’, by its book reviews editor Mariana Vieira.

Allies are less certain of the US’s ‘extended deterrence’ and some are pondering their own options. Ankit Panda explains the escalating dangers of a ‘third nuclear age’ – and how they might be avoided.

The outgoing director of Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Programme reflects on Russia’s anti-democratic history, paying attention to its neighbours and his 25 years of service.

Almost a million of Russia’s brightest have fled home since 2022. Ekaterina Sachkova spoke to some of them about the dilemmas and distrust they face – and why the West might be missing an opportunity.

The use of cheap drones to strike targets deep within Russia provides a blueprint for rapidly evolving modern warfare that should inform how states seek to defend themselves.

For some, helping Ukraine is not worth the possibility of war. But if Russia is allowed to continue unopposed, almost everything is at risk.

Central Asia is adept at hedging between Moscow and the West. Much of its success lies in adhering to a single maxim: tell each side what it wants to hear.

Donald Trump values his personal relations with Saudi royals and the kingdom is willing to play the role of host. But with prestige comes expectations.

Israel’s strengthening ties with Russia aligns with a shift in US Russia policy under Trump. But it risks widening an already significant rift with Israel’s European partners.

If Donald Trump believed he could persuade Vladimir Putin to sign up to a comprehensive ceasefire in Ukraine, he is learning the hard way: Russia is interested in peace, but only on its terms.

Ukraine has agreed to a ceasefire in principle. But conflicts often intensify when a pause in fighting is being negotiated.

To the Trump administration, pleasing Russia looks like it solves major problems. But experience shows that those who try, live to regret it.

A ceasefire that leaves Ukraine unprotected would only provide a pause before a wider war. Washington and Kyiv must agree viable security guarantees before any negotiations with Putin begin.

Putin’s government considers inflation an existential threat. But Trump’s preoccupation with China may prevent the US exploiting Russian weakness.

Events in Syria have undermined Moscow’s claims to be a reliable security guarantor. But Russia’s position in the country remains secondary to the war in Ukraine.

Europe is facing crisis – in our winter issue, we examine the threats to Europe within and beyond. We also eye up what’s in store for the world in 2025: from Trump’s return to the White House to the likelihood, or otherwise, of a ‘pandemic treaty’ – and more.

Here’s what Chatham House’s experts will be keeping their eyes on in the year ahead

Russia, China, Iran and North Korea have formed a destructive partnership which isn’t just enabling Putin’s war in Ukraine, but could destabilize the rest of Europe, warns Armida van Rij.

Events in Syria have upended the balance of power in the region – exposing the weakness of the dictator’s alliances and driving home the failure of Western policy.

The Kremlin is signalling that it is ready to talk to the incoming US administration. But Trump may find Russia’s terms make him look unacceptably weak.

Orysia Lutsevych, Edward Howell and Yossi Mekelberg discuss North Korean troops fighting with Russian forces against Ukraine, as well as the issue of military conscription.

Explaining the history and current state of the relationship between India and Russia, its geopolitical significance, the importance of trade and defence cooperation, and the impact of the war in Ukraine.

Arrested officials are serving as scapegoats following battlefield failures in Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Moscow’s agents are trying to destabilize Ukraine’s supporters – but while the Baltic states and Finland are boldly countering Russian espionage, others are more reticent, reports Helen Fitzwilliam.

The Pulitzer-Prize winning author tells Ben Horton how super-rich autocrats cooperate in organized networks to subvert the liberal democratic order – and what the world must do to stop them.

Anne Applebaum joins the podcast to discuss the threat posed to democracy by a network of authoritarian governments around the world.

The surprise raid has put talk of concessions to Moscow on hold. Kyiv hopes it will also defuse fears of Russian escalation.

The prisoner exchange is a victory for diplomacy, but we should not assume that justice has prevailed.

Relations between North Korea and Russia have developed rapidly from a cash-for-weapons exchange to the deployment of North Korean troops. Their partnership now endangers regional and global security, and the US and its partners must take the threat seriously.

There are four possible outcomes for Russia’s war on Ukraine: ‘long war’, ‘frozen conflict’, ‘victory for Ukraine’, and ‘defeat for Ukraine’. This paper outlines how these scenarios may take shape, the factors influencing them and the consequences for Ukraine.

Russia seeks to rebuild and modernize its armed forces, both to make up for combat losses in Ukraine and to apply lessons from that theatre. The outcome of this project matters deeply for Western security.

This paper assesses Russia’s cyber and information operations against Ukraine, considers why Ukrainian responses have often been so effective, and outlines potential lessons for other states.

This report makes the case for dramatically increased Western military assistance to Ukraine, and counsels against concessions to Russia.

How might a post-Putin Russia look to the outside world? Duncan Allan presents some potential outcomes based on a scenario of a Russian defeat in Ukraine.

Belarus – seen as a ‘vassal state’ of Russia – presents challenges for Western policymakers seeking to end repressions and support its pro-democracy movement.

Russian nuclear threats have been highly successful in constraining Western responses to the war on Ukraine. Actual use of nuclear weapons by Russia is unlikely – but must be more firmly deterred.

Russia’s increasingly militarized approach to polar politics threatens to end the era of low tension in the Arctic and to undermine the stability of the Antarctic Treaty System.

While the war in Ukraine is having significant global impacts for energy, food and fertilizer markets, it may also aggravate wider economic and social upheaval.

Human processes and judgments can affect decisions in the nuclear chain of command. Complexity science offers policymakers pathways to reduce escalatory risk.

To forge an effective Russia policy post-Brexit, the UK needs a clear, coherent Russia strategy based on a realistic assessment of its own power and influence.

The UK’s current approach to anti-kleptocracy damages its rule of law, its standing as an opponent of international corruption and the integrity of important domestic institutions.

There is potential for complementary agendas in French and German approaches to Russia, but the Franco-German ‘motor’ will not be enough to push through an EU-wide Russia policy.

Persistent past behaviours by the Russian state offer clues to how it can be deterred from hostile action against the West in the future. But this is only possible if the West shows both the will and the ability to defend itself.

Innovations in military technology are enhancing and enabling Russia’s way of war. How should NATO and its allies respond?

Russia’s strategic deterrent balances the capabilities of its nuclear arsenal with a growing range of non-nuclear forms of deterrence, writes Valeriy Akimenko

This report deconstructs 16 of the most prevalent myths that shape contemporary Western thinking on Russia, and explains their detrimental impact on the design and execution of policy.

Although Russia wants to position its Far Eastern region as a logistics hub for closer links with Asia and Europe, there are inadequacies in the infrastructure.

Despite Russia’s aggression, economic pressure and information war, Ukraine has managed to preserve its statehood and democratic reforms.

Instead of trying to resolve an unresolvable contradiction, Western policymakers should acknowledge the starkness of the Minsk conundrum.

How is it possible for the directors of the Russian economy to pursue an orthodox stabilization policy and yet achieve so little to stem growth slowdown?

This paper outlines the achievements and shortcomings of decentralization and highlights a window of opportunity for completing the first phase of reforms. 

This paper focuses on Russia’s military posture in the Russian Arctic, demystifying Moscow’s military build-up, and explaining why the intentions are defensive.

Examining reform and modernization of Russia’s military, giving a new structure which enables high readiness for short warning, possibly complex. conflicts.

This paper explores the evolution of the dilemmas in Armenia’s foreign policy since the 1990s. Its primary aim is to offer an informed background for further discussions, beyond the conventional and stereotypical views that dominate policy thinking on this issue in the West as well as in Armenia.

Russia and Iran are the most influential external powers supporting the Assad regime and will most likely reap the benefits of Syria’s economic recovery.

Ukraine’s vicious circle of corruption begins with the power groups that have created and sustained a system in which citizens believe that it is impossible to live without corruption. The process of cleaning up institutions must start at the top.

Building the resilience of societies and institutions offers a potentially viable strategy for the three countries to achieve more secure and less damaging cohabitation with Russia.

The UK government’s words and deeds are still not synchronized. That is a recipe for trouble.