United States of America

The history of pound sterling, the world’s previous dominant currency, is not reassuring for the dollar.

In this week’s episode, our experts discuss Chatham House’s latest report: Saving global economic governance from the ‘Trump shock’.

Speaking at Chatham House, Dr Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, said Strait of Hormuz closures and rising summer demand could push oil markets into a ‘red zone’.

Trump’s comments on Taiwan after his meeting with Xi and an apparent move towards ‘strategic stability’ with China could have consequences for Taiwan’s future and erode trust among US allies.

Our experts analyse the two superpowers’ aims as President Trump meets President Xi Jinping in Beijing.

The US currently depends on China for crucial rare earth minerals and magnets. But its domestic electronic waste contains vast quantities of valuable magnets that could be reused and recycled to counter Beijing’s dominance.

Beyond the drama of two rival populists, it is crime policy that may swing Brazil’s October election.

The summit’s short agenda reveals a preference for continuing stability, which buys time. The question is how each side will use it.

But they can make important progress at their summit, by sharing their threat perceptions about the nuclear escalation risks brought by AI.

The president has alienated partners that once acted as force multipliers. But there are still opportunities to create a united front on common points of tension with Beijing.

President Trump should not concede much on issues like Taiwan. But both powers have an interest in opening the Strait of Hormuz and making progress on AI safety.

When ‘maximum’ economic pressure fails to bring regime change, and rhetoric has made diplomacy politically impossible, momentum towards military solutions will grow.

What is the state of US relations with the UK and the rest of NATO? And what political and military decisions lie ahead for European leaders?

US export controls on chips and hardware alone will not prevent China from further developing advanced AI.

Lord Robertson, former NATO Secretary-General, was speaking at a Chatham House event to launch a House of Lords report on UK–US relations.

Islamabad has an obvious interest in ending the war, to ease energy problems and cool tensions on its border with Iran. But any hopes for economic benefits from the Trump administration may be misplaced. 

The war doesn’t seem to have damaged the dollar’s global status. But that may reflect the US’s emergence as the top producer of oil, gas and weapons, which insulates its economy from the crisis.

From Hormuz to Hungary and the Vatican to the Federal Reserve, it has been an unusually contentious week for the White House, even by the standards of President Trump’s second administration.

Foreign policy is a low priority for US voters. But a rushed deal could impact the president’s domestic support in November’s midterm elections.

Whatever the eventual outcome of the US-Israel war on Iran, the geopolitical aftershocks will reverberate across Asia for years, and perhaps decades, to come.

Iran will be reluctant to give up the leverage it has gained in the Strait. But options exist to try and change its perspective.

What does the ceasefire mean for the Islamic Republic, President Trump, the Strait of Hormuz and the UK? And how should the world respond to challenges to the humanitarian legal order?

The war threatens the UK prime minister’s hopes for economic recovery and heaps pressure on US relations he has worked hard to maintain. A long war will see his problems mount.

The US-Israel war on Iran is straining Trump’s alliances, at home and abroad.

To establish some measure of control of minerals supply, market-oriented governments are starting to directly invest in mining projects. Governments that don’t are placing their manufacturing sectors, energy security, and national defence at risk.

A potted selection of reviews from our sister journal ‘International Affairs’, by its book reviews editor Mariana Vieira

The Canadian politician and diplomat tells Mike Higgins how Prime Minister Mark Carney’s speech at Davos in January on the ‘rupture in the world order’ has heralded a national hardening of attitudes to trade, defence and the future of Greenland.

From President Trump’s bid to acquire Greenland to Beijing’s claims over the South China Sea, cartographer William Rankin tells Mike Higgins how maps sometimes don’t help geopolitical decision-making.

Amid the expiration of New START and fears of secret weapon testing, the world’s oldest arms reduction treaty is under strain, writes Iona Allan.

As the Pax Americana fades, policymakers are prioritizing economic security – emerging countries could be the big losers, writes David Lubin.

With the new US national security strategy demanding greater burden-sharing by Japan and South Korea, officials and policymakers in all three countries must focus on delivering tangible benefits if they are to sustain their trilateral partnership.

As the Trump administration turns away from the US-led post-war international order, how are other states envisioning ‘international order’ and what are their plans for adapting to new realities?

More cohesive international engagement is needed to support stability in Ethiopia and Sudan and resolve damaging cross-border disputes that jeopardize security and development across the Horn of Africa.

With consistent and long-term support from the US, the Abraham Accords could have a transformative impact on Middle East economic cooperation and regional security.

Global trade continues to face multiple challenges as the risks of deepening tensions between the US and China, along with those of an escalation of Russia’s war on Ukraine, weigh on economies.

This paper assesses plans for investment in a sustainable economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, and examines how such efforts could transform international development cooperation.

The Trade and Technology Council (TTC) has become the main platform for US–EU trade and tech cooperation. But the US and the EU must turn ambitions into tangible outcomes if the TTC is to tackle significant global issues.

Europe and the US recognize that their policies and strategies on the Indo-Pacific need to be more coherent. Existing structures such as the G7 and the Quad could become key forums for enhanced cooperation.

In 2021 G7 leaders pledged to build back a better world. They now need to redouble their efforts to make sure that this ambition is fulfilled.

Human processes and judgments can affect decisions in the nuclear chain of command. Complexity science offers policymakers pathways to reduce escalatory risk.

The use of forest biomass for energy is growing rapidly, but existing EU and UK policies ignore its contribution to increased carbon emissions.

This paper offers a public policy ‘toolkit’ for governments in the US and Europe to support firms in securing resilient and sustainable supply chains

Important political shifts in 2021 could bring greater clarity on Germany’s changing China policy, no matter who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor, writes Noah Barkin.

This paper examines current and potential areas of climate change cooperation between the US, the EU and China.

China’s expansion into the Indo-Pacific is meeting growing resistance from a range of countries that are looking to further their own interests in the region.

Quantum technologies represent significant scientific progress, however, security concerns continue to hinder deeper international cooperation.

The authors of this paper consider the most pressing foreign policy challenges for the next US president, and examine how the outcome of the 2020 election will affect these.

A modernized and fully functioning WTO is more essential than ever. This paper makes the case for transatlantic cooperation as a necessary condition for reform.

As internet governance issues emerge in the wake of innovations such as the Internet of Things and advanced artificial intelligence, there is an urgent need for the EU and US to establish a common, positive multi-stakeholder vision for regulating and governing the internet.

This paper examines the risks of greater strategic competition as well as potential solutions for mitigating the impacts of the US–China economic confrontation.

This briefing argues that China’s rise has worrying implications for the liberal order and explores how this will affect the transatlantic relationship.

Many middle powers have been warning of the dangers inherent in the decline of the liberal international order. The time has come for these countries to translate their warnings into concerted action.

This paper recommends a framework for strengthening US–EU trade relations and achieving successful trade talks in the current era of protectionism. 

Despite significant financial expenditure and thousands of lives lost, a fundamental shift in policy remains unimaginable at present.

In the first of a new annual series, Chatham House experts examine how aspects of the established order in global affairs are shifting.

If a new trade policy framework can be developed, Trump’s presidency could offer a chance to move the debate forward and actually strengthen global trade.

Briefing Paper