United States of America

Here’s what Chatham House’s experts will be keeping their eyes on in the year ahead

The political ascendancy of Elon Musk and others like him will likely draw Silicon Valley and the Pentagon even closer – a trend that may profoundly impact technology development and further entrench the power of ‘big tech’.

A second Trump presidency poses serious risks to Jordan, not least because of growing concern the US could support an Israeli annexation of the West Bank.

Donald Trump has been critical of US commitments in the Korean peninsula, but his new administration must reassure South Korea and Japan once in office.

The region’s right-wing populists are ready to cooperate based on mutual admiration for the MAGA project. But their effectiveness as supporters of Donald Trump’s policy is uncertain.

Rana Mitter, Demetri Sevastopulo and Yu Jie join the podcast this week to discuss how China may respond to Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Gulf states will continue the move to regional reconciliation but on Iran and Israel–Palestine, will look to reset the rules of engagement.

Should a new US administration disengage from forums like the UN, Beijing’s plans to reshape global governance will be boosted. US allies should plan accordingly.

Although Trump favours a weaker exchange rate, his policies are likely to have the opposite effect. The risk is that the US dollar could become too strong, which is bad news for the global economy.

The Kremlin is signalling that it is ready to talk to the incoming US administration. But Trump may find Russia’s terms make him look unacceptably weak.

With Trump in the White House, a key challenge for Europe will be the growing transatlantic illiberal ties which risk undermining European unity.

Edward Luce, Leslie Vinjamuri and Gerald Seib join the podcast this week to discuss Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris in the US presidential election.

World leaders must engage with the new president’s view of America’s priorities and accept that the US has changed.

Donald Trump’s election victory will bring immediate costs for US allies, says Bronwen Maddox, and will remake the map of American partnership.

Both presidential candidates will pursue US tech dominance but differ on the means to achieve it.

A narrow win for either side could make things worse. The rest of the world should be prepared for a disruptive transition.

As US public opinion hardens, the Democratic party takes a tougher stance, and Donald Trump proposes mass deportations, Latin American leaders note a lack of long-term policy.

Harris and Trump look set to continue US deprioritization of the region, but they would do better to enlist the support of their partners.

Traditional allies of the US need to find a way to work together on some global policy issues even when the US itself is not engaged. A ‘G6 plus’ group could provide an answer.

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump could not be more different when it comes to trade, despite a changed economic landscape.

While the US–India relationship will continue to deepen whoever wins the US election, the two countries must become more realistic about its limits.

The pretence of cooperation is over as Beijing prepares for America’s next president.

The outcome of the US election is consequential for the global climate agenda, through its potential impact on environmental governance and perhaps more importantly, its consequences for global trade and tensions.

David Weigel and Clare Malone join the podcast to discuss the debate in Philadelphia between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

Although many countries would like to see an alternative to the US dollar, its dominance is unlikely to come to an end anytime soon.

Pollsters say domestic issues will decide the contest in November. Yet the debate showed that America’s international standing and its future global role are still central to this election.

Relations between big tech, policymakers and the online accountability community have become hostile and politicized, degrading efforts to combat disinformation.

Secretary Blinken joined Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox in conversation with an invited audience.

A ‘deal’ with Putin, tariffs on all imports, targeting Iran…if Donald Trump wins in November and is as good as his word, America may add to global uncertainty and hand its rivals diplomatic victories, writes Michael Cox.

The Pulitzer-Prize winning author tells Ben Horton how super-rich autocrats cooperate in organized networks to subvert the liberal democratic order – and what the world must do to stop them.

More cohesive international engagement is needed to support stability in Ethiopia and Sudan and resolve damaging cross-border disputes that jeopardize security and development across the Horn of Africa.

With consistent and long-term support from the US, the Abraham Accords could have a transformative impact on Middle East economic cooperation and regional security.

Global trade continues to face multiple challenges as the risks of deepening tensions between the US and China, along with those of an escalation of Russia’s war on Ukraine, weigh on economies.

This paper assesses plans for investment in a sustainable economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, and examines how such efforts could transform international development cooperation.

The Trade and Technology Council (TTC) has become the main platform for US–EU trade and tech cooperation. But the US and the EU must turn ambitions into tangible outcomes if the TTC is to tackle significant global issues.

Europe and the US recognize that their policies and strategies on the Indo-Pacific need to be more coherent. Existing structures such as the G7 and the Quad could become key forums for enhanced cooperation.

In 2021 G7 leaders pledged to build back a better world. They now need to redouble their efforts to make sure that this ambition is fulfilled.

Human processes and judgments can affect decisions in the nuclear chain of command. Complexity science offers policymakers pathways to reduce escalatory risk.

The use of forest biomass for energy is growing rapidly, but existing EU and UK policies ignore its contribution to increased carbon emissions.

This paper offers a public policy ‘toolkit’ for governments in the US and Europe to support firms in securing resilient and sustainable supply chains

Important political shifts in 2021 could bring greater clarity on Germany’s changing China policy, no matter who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor, writes Noah Barkin.

This paper examines current and potential areas of climate change cooperation between the US, the EU and China.

China’s expansion into the Indo-Pacific is meeting growing resistance from a range of countries that are looking to further their own interests in the region.

Quantum technologies represent significant scientific progress, however, security concerns continue to hinder deeper international cooperation.

The authors of this paper consider the most pressing foreign policy challenges for the next US president, and examine how the outcome of the 2020 election will affect these.

A modernized and fully functioning WTO is more essential than ever. This paper makes the case for transatlantic cooperation as a necessary condition for reform.

As internet governance issues emerge in the wake of innovations such as the Internet of Things and advanced artificial intelligence, there is an urgent need for the EU and US to establish a common, positive multi-stakeholder vision for regulating and governing the internet.

This paper examines the risks of greater strategic competition as well as potential solutions for mitigating the impacts of the US–China economic confrontation.

This briefing argues that China’s rise has worrying implications for the liberal order and explores how this will affect the transatlantic relationship.

Many middle powers have been warning of the dangers inherent in the decline of the liberal international order. The time has come for these countries to translate their warnings into concerted action.

This paper recommends a framework for strengthening US–EU trade relations and achieving successful trade talks in the current era of protectionism. 

Despite significant financial expenditure and thousands of lives lost, a fundamental shift in policy remains unimaginable at present.

In the first of a new annual series, Chatham House experts examine how aspects of the established order in global affairs are shifting.

If a new trade policy framework can be developed, Trump’s presidency could offer a chance to move the debate forward and actually strengthen global trade.

Briefing Paper