Arms control

The E3 and Tehran have no better option than re-engaging. Failing to do so risks movement towards a weaponized nuclear programme, military escalation, or both.

Anxieties over US threats to stop protecting the continent are prompting various proposals to reinforce Europe’s deterrence posture – but many of these have serious flaws.

Tel Aviv may have the upper hand over Tehran, but Israel’s 1981 attack on Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor stands as a warning about the risks of miscalculation, writes Marion Messmer.

The outgoing director of Chatham House’s International Security Programme shares her first memory of the bomb, what inspired her career in nuclear physics and the amazing women written out of history.

Chatham House staff from the International Security Programme attended the British Interactive Media Association Awards on 20 November to receive a prize for their innovative arms control game.

A new UK government should consider the resilience and preparedness of society as a vital aspect of national security.

The nuclear threat is resurgent – more must be done to avert the havoc of escalation.

Are we seeing a resurgence of the threat posed by nuclear weapons, given recent events in the Middle East and rhetoric from world leaders?

With a UN Security Council increasingly stymied by great power politics, the US and its regional allies must lead efforts to constrain an increasingly dangerous North Korea.

Failed tests may help the UK improve the reliability of its independent nuclear deterrent. But such events raise concerns about a lack of investment in non-nuclear defences.

A new treaty at last acknowledges the greater harms nuclear weapons cause indigenous peoples and women, write Melissa Parke and Alicia Sanders-Zakre.

UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps’s speech on 15 January described a shift from ‘a post-war to a pre-war world’. How well equipped is Britain to meet this new period?

Pyongyang has real importance in an emerging anti-Western alliance – and will likely grow more aggressive this year.

The nuclear talks could lay the groundwork for crucial agreement on risk reduction.

The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is at a dangerous point in its 50-year history. Its failure carries a risk we cannot afford.

Private sector defence tech firms are necessarily opaque. But too much secrecy puts them dangerously beyond democratic control, writes Yasmin Afina.

Attention will now turn to scrutinizing how Ukraine deploys the US weapons.

Episode 29 of our weekly podcast examines the influence of the shadowy paramilitary organization Wagner Group and its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.

The plan to supply Australia with nuclear-powered submarines has met with anger from China and fears that it sets a dangerous precedent, writes Mike Higgins.

The case of Iran shows that countering covert action in the digital age requires transparency, persistence and international cooperation. But also that it is unrealistic to expect states to stop completely.

Episode 25 of our weekly podcast examines Russia’s nuclear weapons moving into Belarus and the equipping of Belarusian forces with dual-use equipment and tech.

Amid escalating nuclear threats from North Korea, Iran, and Russia, it is crucial for the US, Europe, and others to reaffirm their collective values.

Despite claims that Finland would bring little military capability to NATO and would need to invest in its defence capacity, its accession is highly significant.

Countries across the Middle East have engaged in an unprecedented pattern of reconciliation to protect their interests amid fluctuations in the international order. But without deliberate international support, these new ties can easily unravel.

Following Russia’s ongoing intimidation, Japan will use its presidency of the G7 – and its history – to prioritize the dangers of nuclear threats, writes James Orr.

Disrupting supply chains of critical minerals to those supporting Ukraine could give China a key advantage in its wider international trade competition.

Episode 19 of our weekly podcast examines the AUKUS deal, UK defence priorities, and the state of Georgia’s democracy following anti-government protests.

The new UK Integrated Review fills gaps left by the last one but is dominated by defence. It needs more clarity on Europe, trade, and development – and more money.

Episode 16 of our weekly podcast examines the global impact of Russia’s war on Ukraine one year on from when Vladimir Putin launched his all-out assault.

Explaining the risks of Russia’s decision to suspend the New START nuclear treaty with the US, and the wider implications for international relations.

Behavioural insights have already been used to enhance the choice architecture in several areas of public policy. This research paper explores their potential for improving decision-making in nuclear weapons policy.

Russian nuclear threats have been highly successful in constraining Western responses to the war on Ukraine. Actual use of nuclear weapons by Russia is unlikely – but must be more firmly deterred.

Human processes and judgments can affect decisions in the nuclear chain of command. Complexity science offers policymakers pathways to reduce escalatory risk.

The EU and the UK need to take the lead in addressing long-standing concerns over lack of transparency and accountability in the use of armed drones, write Jessica Dorsey and Nilza Amaral.

In this paper, Steven Hill examines what the entry into force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons should mean for the members of the NATO Alliance.

Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) alliances and proponents of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) are contrasted in this paper.

In the context of recent developments, this paper reviews US President Donald Trump’s Iran strategy and explores possible pathways to a new nuclear agreement with the Islamic Republic.

This paper focuses on Russia’s military posture in the Russian Arctic, demystifying Moscow’s military build-up, and explaining why the intentions are defensive.

The UK government’s words and deeds are still not synchronized. That is a recipe for trouble.

The rise of AI must be better managed in the near term in order to mitigate longer term risks and to ensure that AI does not reinforce existing inequalities.

States possessing nuclear weapons should be called upon to consider and publish the risks posed to cultural heritage, and their mitigation strategies, in their nuclear-weapons doctrines and policies.

Beyond restricting arms sales, the UN Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) can generate positive indirect impacts such as poverty reduction, improved health care and educational opportunities.

This paper analyses the role that the defence industry and international investors financing the production and trade of military goods can have in the implementation of the UN Arms Trade Treaty (ATT), and makes a case for why it is beneficial for countries across the world to join it.

Chatham House Report