International finance system

To secure long-term growth, the government must resist the temptation to fight inflation by letting the naira strengthen against the dollar.

How Trump and Congress address looming fiscal challenges will have far-reaching consequences that could affect the foundations of US economic power.

Trump’s economic policies may prove surprisingly benign in the short term. But steps that undermine domestic US institutions and international alliances would do serious and lasting damage.

Putin’s government considers inflation an existential threat. But Trump’s preoccupation with China may prevent the US exploiting Russian weakness.

Here’s what Chatham House’s experts will be keeping their eyes on in the year ahead

In this episode, Professor Carlos Lopes discusses what the African Union’s G20 membership means for Africa’s economic and geopolitical influence on the global stage.

Although Trump favours a weaker exchange rate, his policies are likely to have the opposite effect. The risk is that the US dollar could become too strong, which is bad news for the global economy.

Although many countries would like to see an alternative to the US dollar, its dominance is unlikely to come to an end anytime soon.

Private investment is key to closing the vast gap in climate finance, but too little is reaching the world’s most vulnerable countries. COP29 is an opportunity to change this, writes Thierry Watrin.

The informal group of emerging markets may lack coherence, but ending the dollar’s dominance has become a theme – and digital currency innovations offer interesting possibilities, writes David Lubin.

Plans for ambitious reform in Egypt, Turkey and Argentina could fold in the face of public unrest. A second Trump term may change how the IMF and World Bank respond.

Some investors in hydrocarbons may be assuming that governments will bail them out if climate-related transition risks crystallize.

The Republic of Türkiye’s Minister of Finance joins Chatham House Director, Bronwen Maddox to discuss the world economy.

G7 leaders meeting in Italy are unlikely to prioritize discussion of public debt, which now exceeds post-war highs. This would be a mistake.

Raising productivity growth is the only way the UK will be able to meet its domestic and international objectives over the long term.

The $300 billion of immobilized assets can only partly address the cost of Ukraine’s survival and reconstruction. There should be no qualms about confiscating it.

The G7 must weigh the benefits of confiscation against potentially large but uncertain costs.

Conventional, publicly capitalized financial instruments are the only way to mobilize private finance on a very large scale.

While the global economy is showing signs of strong growth, public debt levels in emerging markets are rising at an alarming rate.

The UK’s new strategy highlights how clarity of purpose, careful calibration and flexibility can help ensure sanctions regimes are effective.

Weakening the currency should be relatively straightforward. But the adverse reaction of China’s trading partners, past experience, and Xi Jinping’s ambitions for the renminbi could combine to prevent it.

There is much to learn from recent events, but policymakers should build on the framework that already exists.

Capital is leaving the country, but some net FDI outflows to other manufacturing destinations allow Chinese firms to avoid trade friction with the US.

From averting a European war to hosting a furious Greta Thunberg, the World Economic Forum gathering in Switzerland has provided unforgettable diplomatic moments.

As COP28 approaches, Ed Mountfield, Vice President of the World Bank discussed the ongoing reform initiatives.

Failure to reach an agreement will damage the IMF and the rules-based international economic cooperation it embodies.

‘Underground Empire’ argues that because America installed the plumbing of the world’s financial system, it must show restraint – that is unlikely, writes Neil Shearing.

Banks need to democratize decision-making and realign their portfolios to build on renewed commitment at the UN General Assembly.

The leaders’ declaration ensures the G20 will survive, but members have to take more risk in trusting each other to deliver what is urgently required.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe must resist popular pressure ahead of next year’s election and aim for long-term reforms, write Kabir Hashim and Talal Rafi.

Civic freedoms and space are critical to stable, profitable and sustainable business environments. But investor awareness remains limited.

Sustainable finance taxonomies could help incentivize additional investment for circular economy initiatives. The EU’s taxonomy offers lessons on how to leverage taxonomies to accelerate the transition to a circular economy.

The ‘net zero’ transition will require a massive reallocation of private capital from high- to low-carbon assets in coming decades. Action by central banks, financial regulators and industry coalitions will be critical to this process.

A global approach is the only way to tackle debt distress in Africa. This will require strategic cooperation between China, the West and African nations.

This paper analyses the contentious and complex issue of Loss and Damage finance by examining the perspectives of different countries.

Venezuela’s recovery from economic collapse and the future prosperity of its citizens depend on the reconstruction of its crisis-ridden electricity system.

The UK’s current approach to anti-kleptocracy damages its rule of law, its standing as an opponent of international corruption and the integrity of important domestic institutions.

After two decades as a member of the WTO, how has China’s approach to global economic governance enabled the country to achieve its core objectives?

Analysing a crucial opportunity for enhancing ambitions on climate finance, adaptation, and ‘loss and damage’, and the implementation of the Paris Agreement.

This paper examines investments in the circular economy and the need for new financial instruments to support further development.

This paper investigates the extent to which international organizations, including UN agencies, are incorporating climate change risks into their strategic planning and risk management.

This paper examines broad legal and institutional reform proposals for Venezuela’s oil and gas sector, and five countries it competes with in global markets.

The bank regulatory framework has so far proven effective in ensuring financial market stability during COVID-19. But the FSB’s review of lessons learnt will be crucial to the system’s future international coherence.

Emerging-market governments may struggle to service their foreign debt and raise capital domestically. An IMF early-warning framework and the use of GDP-linked bonds could help to prevent the next crisis.

A combination of pre-existing and new measures have helped avert a systemic liquidity crisis to date. International cooperation and further policy innovation will be needed to ensure continued stability.

This paper focuses on the strategic direction of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) and its implementing countries.