China’s foreign relations

In this week’s episode of Independent Thinking, our experts discuss the Trump-Xi summit in Washington and the increasing competition between the two superpowers.

The US and China both face serious domestic strains. As Trump and Xi meet this week to discuss trade, AI and Taiwan, neither side should mistake the other’s weaknesses for strategic decline.

China absorbed the shock by drawing on stockpiles and a decade of electrification. Europe needs electrification for security, but it needs to decide which parts of the system it is willing to buy from Beijing.

Xi Jinping wants to forge ‘a common destiny for humankind’ by winning over the Global South and taking Taiwan. But if America and Europe are to counter this ‘double pivot’, they must better understand ‘Xi Thought’, argues Steve Tsang.

As its AI models catch up to US rivals, China wants to set the rules that govern AI use.

China wants to become more self-sufficient in food. This could make it easier to fight climate change and improve nutrition worldwide, but there are also risks to global food markets.

China’s new white paper on global governance highlights its balancing act between global ambitions and financial restraint.

Stuck for a good book on your holiday? From a multi-generational Korean saga to an insider account of the coming tech coup (and how to stop it), here are some must-read novels, non-fiction and memoirs recommended by Chatham House experts and staff.

This week’s summit shows the relationship is resilient, rooted in shared interests. But China remains wary of commitments on various fronts.

Our experts analyse the two superpowers’ aims as President Trump meets President Xi Jinping in Beijing.

Oil shortages as a result of the Iran war present a unique opportunity for ASEAN chair the Philippines to make progress on a South China Sea Code of Conduct with China. And for Trump to strike a deal.

The US currently depends on China for crucial rare earth minerals and magnets. But its domestic electronic waste contains vast quantities of valuable magnets that could be reused and recycled to counter Beijing’s dominance.

The summit’s short agenda reveals a preference for continuing stability, which buys time. The question is how each side will use it.

But they can make important progress at their summit, by sharing their threat perceptions about the nuclear escalation risks brought by AI.

President Trump should not concede much on issues like Taiwan. But both powers have an interest in opening the Strait of Hormuz and making progress on AI safety.

China will not displace the US as regional security guarantor, but it could play an important role building a new regional order, as Gulf states rethink their security strategies.

Senior Research Fellow for China and the World James Kynge provided evidence on 22 April.

As China ramps up its pressure on Taiwan, the Strait of Hormuz closure must serve as a wake-up call for European policymakers.

Whatever the eventual outcome of the US-Israel war on Iran, the geopolitical aftershocks will reverberate across Asia for years, and perhaps decades, to come.

The scale of Hanoi’s land reclamation operations is fast surpassing Beijing’s in the contested Spratly Islands, write John Pollock and Damien Symon.

A potted selection of reviews from our sister journal ‘International Affairs’, by its book reviews editor Mariana Vieira

The US strikes raise questions over China’s policy to forge energy and trade ties with US rivals. But in the long term, Beijing sees itself gaining diplomatic capital through a contrasting role as a stable and peaceful superpower.

Beijing’s diplomatic restraint over the US’s standoff with Tehran should not be mistaken for unreliability or indifference.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer arrived in Beijing this week, determined to defrost the relationship that he says has gone from a ‘golden age to an ice age’. He left hailing progress made with Xi, but this was swiftly followed by a warning from Trump that closer engagement is ‘very dangerous’.

Keir Starmer’s upcoming China visit and the UK’s approval of China’s new ‘mega-embassy’ have dominated headlines. But more attention should be paid to Beijing’s less visible levers of influence.

US actions in Venezuela and its identification of the Western Hemisphere as a US sphere of influence presents a complex set of challenges for China.

A stronger currency may be coming but policymakers in Beijing face two dilemmas that will limit their appetite for exchange rate appreciation.

In her annual lecture, Maddox described a world in which superpower competition threatens the peace of others, and said that US policy under President Trump amounts to a revolution.

Editors of The World Today, the international affairs magazine of Chatham House, discuss with experts from across the institute the global trends, looming flashpoints and potential areas for dialogue that may lie ahead in 2026.

Tariffs, technological competition and a US drive to carve out hemispheres of influence between the US and China marked the opening months of President Donald Trump’s second term.

A widening trade surplus with developing countries complicates China’s geopolitical agenda. Boosting Chinese domestic demand and letting the renminbi appreciate more could ease economic tensions with trade partners in the Global South.

The UK cannot avoid deepening bilateral links with China, but policymakers must go much further to mitigate the risks of closer engagement while also insulating the relationship from Sino-US tensions.

Relations between China and India hold great long-term significance for the future of both Asia and the emerging global order. This paper details their relationship and why their competition for influence and status matters to the rest of the world.

Against a backdrop of rising tensions, this paper examines the internal and external influences that are shaping China’s policy towards the US and the implications for the wider world.

Whichever party wins the general election, limited resources will prevent an expansive foreign agenda. ‘Realistic ambition’ should be the guiding principle, with a focus on adapting to risks around the US and China, improving relations with the EU, and strengthening the UK’s role in international governance and development.

Achieving Xi Jinping’s ambitious agenda of self-reliance in critical technologies will become all the more difficult as the space for creative thinking within China narrows, and opportunities diminish for Chinese scientists to work with peers internationally.

A global approach is the only way to tackle debt distress in Africa. This will require strategic cooperation between China, the West and African nations.

The rise of China is one of the greatest challenges for the transatlantic relationship. Despite similar concerns, fundamental differences could prevent a joined-up European and US approach.

China has increased its humanitarian aid and diplomatic engagement in displacement crises, but obstacles to deeper involvement remain.

After two decades as a member of the WTO, how has China’s approach to global economic governance enabled the country to achieve its core objectives?

Understanding the role of national and subnational institutions in determining China’s foreign policy is key to working with the country on major global issues.

This paper takes a closer look at how South Korea manages its economic and security relations with the US and China in the context of increased rivalry.

This paper takes a closer look at the EU’s approach to China and how this may change as US–China tensions intensify.

Important political shifts in 2021 could bring greater clarity on Germany’s changing China policy, no matter who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor, writes Noah Barkin.

China’s expansion into the Indo-Pacific is meeting growing resistance from a range of countries that are looking to further their own interests in the region.

China’s highly restrictive approach to online freedom of expression has not only intensified under COVID-19, the government is also increasingly trying to shape global online technology governance.

Critics of the BRI accuse China of pursuing a policy of ‘debt-trap diplomacy’: luring poor, developing countries into agreeing unsustainable loans to pursue infrastructure projects so that, when they experience financial difficulty, Beijing can seize the asset, thereby extending its strategic or military reach.

Canadian attitudes towards China have undergone a dramatic shift – from ambivalence to distrust – since the two countries became locked in a diplomatic dispute in late 2018. This paper argues that these hardened sentiments are unlikely to dissipate and Canada–China relations seem to have entered a new, warier phase.

This paper examines the risks of greater strategic competition as well as potential solutions for mitigating the impacts of the US–China economic confrontation.

In the first of a new annual series, Chatham House experts examine how aspects of the established order in global affairs are shifting.

There will always be a tendency for politics to push to protect or enhance ‘local innovation’ but it is in the longer-term interests of both the EU and China to encourage innovation collaboration.