US foreign policy

The US decision to extend sanctions has upped the ante in its campaign against the ICC. The Court’s supporters must decide how to respond, perhaps now it is time to put all options on the table.

US voters are linking economic concerns to the Trump administration’s foreign policy choices. This is bad news for Republicans.

A Bolsonaro victory would mean Trump-aligned governments dominate South America.

In this week’s episode of Independent Thinking, our experts discuss the Trump-Xi summit in Washington and the increasing competition between the two superpowers.

Denmark used its soft power to rally support and took the dispute out of the limelight – addressing underlying US interests instead of President Trump’s unacceptable public position.

The US and China both face serious domestic strains. As Trump and Xi meet this week to discuss trade, AI and Taiwan, neither side should mistake the other’s weaknesses for strategic decline.

Daily power cuts, fuel shortages and empty shop shelves are part of everyday life for Cubans as they struggle with the worst economic crisis in decades. Photographer Daniel Desormais visited an island bracing itself for America’s next move.

In an extended edition of our weekly Independent Thinking podcast, we look back over a quarter of a century to examine the longer-term consequences of 9/11.

The Democrats are projected to make big gains in November’s midterm elections. But this will not necessarily constrain President Trump.

A US crisis is very likely to be associated with a capital outflow, rather than a capital inflow, with the result that the dollar could weaken substantially against other currencies.

Two initial meetings sent a worrying signal and Venezuelans are frustrated. The US must apply real pressure for talks to make progress.

The Trump administration has pushed through another round of tariffs. While they are being challenged in the courts, unpredictable and costly US trade policy is here to stay.

Iran has survived war with the US by adapting its doctrine. The US must also change its thinking.

Libyan anti-corruption investigations reveal the limitations of a US push to reunify the country without improving governance.

International law does not permit any country to appoint itself ‘guardian’ of other states’ rights and demand payment. The only realistic solution to the situation in the Strait is a return to negotiations.

Erosion of public trust in US leadership and the growing Russian threat are opportunities for European NATO allies to build public support for fast and decisive action on defence.

In this episode of Independent Thinking, Bronwen Maddox is joined by Laurel Rapp and Ambassador Tim Davis to discuss America’s international role and its domestic divisions as it approaches the 250th anniversary of its founding.

Europe cannot affect the course of America’s latest reinvention, as it did 250 years ago. But it can adapt to a more unhappy relationship.

Both sides want to buy time. But other factors like midterm elections, Israel, and deep mistrust may intervene. 

France achieved as much as could have been expected at its G7 Summit, but this was well short of what the world needs. A new approach is needed.

The memorandum restores the prohibition on the use of force, seeks a binding resolution at the UN to endorse a ‘final deal,’ and relies on multilateral institutions to implement it. But are the US and Iran really returning to compliance with international law?

The president started a war in the Middle East without considering foreseeable risks. The US memorandum of understanding with Iran leaves many of the repercussions of that miscalculation unaddressed.

The international relations authority talks to Olivia O’Sullivan about America’s ‘catastrophic’ foreign policy failures, the likelihood of a global shock transforming Britain’s politics and the impact of Margaret Thatcher, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan in his time at Chatham House. Listen also to the full podcast of their conversation.

Only if Washington and Tehran agree all the difficult pieces they are trying to put together, and keep Israel on board – otherwise the deal is likely to be fragile, says Catherine Ashton, who led the talks that established the 2015 nuclear accord.

The director of Chatham House’s US and North America programme on why the 250th anniversary of US independence is likely to further polarize Americans.

The Axis of Resistance failed to deter Israel and the US. Whatever deal ends the war, Tehran will seek to rebuild its deterrence around the threat it poses to the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf states.

The history of pound sterling, the world’s previous dominant currency, is not reassuring for the dollar.

In exchange for sanctions relief, America has gained release for some 500 political prisoners in Belarus and is aiming for 900 more by year’s end. But distancing Lukashenka from Putin is another matter, says Natalya Kovaleva.

In trying to limit the pain on itself, the West has pulled its punches in hurting Russia.

Trump’s comments on Taiwan after his meeting with Xi and an apparent move towards ‘strategic stability’ with China could have consequences for Taiwan’s future and erode trust among US allies.

This report proposes the creation of a permanent alliance of market-oriented economies – a ‘third pole’ in the global economy – to preserve and improve the core principles and rules underpinning economic openness, absence of coercion and pursuit of mutual benefit.

With the new US national security strategy demanding greater burden-sharing by Japan and South Korea, officials and policymakers in all three countries must focus on delivering tangible benefits if they are to sustain their trilateral partnership.

Against a backdrop of rising tensions, this paper examines the internal and external influences that are shaping China’s policy towards the US and the implications for the wider world.

Whichever party wins the general election, limited resources will prevent an expansive foreign agenda. ‘Realistic ambition’ should be the guiding principle, with a focus on adapting to risks around the US and China, improving relations with the EU, and strengthening the UK’s role in international governance and development.

With consistent and long-term support from the US, the Abraham Accords could have a transformative impact on Middle East economic cooperation and regional security.

Europe and the US recognize that their policies and strategies on the Indo-Pacific need to be more coherent. Existing structures such as the G7 and the Quad could become key forums for enhanced cooperation.

The rise of China is one of the greatest challenges for the transatlantic relationship. Despite similar concerns, fundamental differences could prevent a joined-up European and US approach.

Russia’s increasingly militarized approach to polar politics threatens to end the era of low tension in the Arctic and to undermine the stability of the Antarctic Treaty System.

This paper takes a closer look at how South Korea manages its economic and security relations with the US and China in the context of increased rivalry.

Important political shifts in 2021 could bring greater clarity on Germany’s changing China policy, no matter who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor, writes Noah Barkin.

China’s expansion into the Indo-Pacific is meeting growing resistance from a range of countries that are looking to further their own interests in the region.

The authors of this paper consider the most pressing foreign policy challenges for the next US president, and examine how the outcome of the 2020 election will affect these.

This paper summarizes the US mission in Somalia, analyses how it is being implemented, and assesses whether US policy in Somalia is working. It also outlines three scenarios for future US engagement.

In the context of recent developments, this paper reviews US President Donald Trump’s Iran strategy and explores possible pathways to a new nuclear agreement with the Islamic Republic.

This briefing argues that China’s rise has worrying implications for the liberal order and explores how this will affect the transatlantic relationship.

Despite significant financial expenditure and thousands of lives lost, a fundamental shift in policy remains unimaginable at present.

If a new trade policy framework can be developed, Trump’s presidency could offer a chance to move the debate forward and actually strengthen global trade.