|
Market share of alternative proteins*
|
Percentage of global market for pasture meat, crop meat, dairy and eggs replaced by alternative proteins
|
Pasture meat
|
8.3%
|
25%
|
16.7%
|
50%
|
|
Crop meat
|
4.3%
|
13%
|
8.3%
|
25%
|
|
Dairy
|
15%
|
45%
|
30%
|
90%
|
|
Eggs
|
6.7%
|
20%
|
13.3%
|
40%
|
|
Relative proportion of technologies in the overall alternative proteins market
|
Breakdown of market use of plant-based product, precision fermentation and lab-grown cultured meats (% plant-based/% precision fermentation/% lab-grown cultured meat)
|
Pasture meat
|
33%/33%/33%
|
20%/40%/40%
|
33%/33%/33%
|
20%/40%/40%
|
|
Crop meat
|
33%/33%/33%
|
20%/40%/40%
|
33%/33%/33%
|
20%/40%/40%
|
|
Dairy
|
50%/50%/0%
|
33%/66%/0%
|
50%/50%/0%
|
33%/66%/0%
|
|
Eggs
|
0%/100%/0%
|
0%/100%/0%
|
0%/100%/0%
|
0%/100%/0%
|
|
Final cement share per residential building**
|
Percentage of cement industry replaced by cross-laminated timber.
|
2.3%
|
8%
|
6.6%
|
20%
|
|
Cross-laminated timber (CLT) land footprint***
|
The relative ratio of land for CLT plantations from forest land, crop land and pastureland.
|
5%/5%/90%
|
5%/5%/90%
|
5%/5%/90%
|
25%/5%/70%
|
|
Market share of bioplastics****
|
A share of the total plastics market sourced from bioplastics.
|
5.6%
|
19.1%
|
10%
|
50%
|
*In the Far-reaching transition scenario, the overall market for alternative proteins in 2100 was aligned with the maximum technological replacement potentials by 2050 used by the Green Alliance for the report A New Land Dividend. The Limited Transition scenario assumes that half of this maximum potential is reached by 2100. The interim market uptake in 2050 is one-third of the market uptake by 2100. For crop meat and pasture meat, the relative market within alternative proteins for precision fermentation and lab-grown cultured meats was assumed to double in the second half of the century. ** Future markets for CLT were based on expert interviews regarding a highly ambitious scenario for CLT market share compared to traditional materials. Projections of 8 per cent to 20 per cent of new material use in buildings was considered to be very ambitious. *** New plantations for CLT were assumed to come mostly from pastureland, which is freed up by the implementation of alternative proteins. In the Far-reaching Transition scenario in 2100, the increasing land footprint of bioplastics means that CLT was largely sourced from forestry activities. The lead-in time for land clearance, planting and harvesting was not included in the modelling exercise, in line with the assumption that most of the pastureland freed up would be in tropical forest areas where growth takes less than a decade compared to the overall period to 2100 modelled. **** In the Limited Transition scenario, the market share of bioplastics was modelled to follow the continued compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the polyethylene market (2.5 per cent) with a starting point of 1.5 per cent of the overall plastic consumption market. In the Far-reaching Transition scenario, the market share of bioplastics was simulated at the point when bioplastics are the dominant type of plastic in the market.
