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What the Burnham government should do in its foreign policy

Policy paper

Published 27 August 2026

ISBN: 978 1 78413 690 1

Image — The UK’s prime minister, Andy Burnham, shakes hands with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, at a naval base in Portsmouth, UK, 27 July 2026. Copyright © Simon Jones-WPA Pool/Getty Images.

Photo of Andy Burnham meeting Volodymyr Zelenskyy, 27 July 2026

Bronwen Maddox

Director and Chief Executive, Chatham House

Olivia O’Sullivan

Director, UK in the World Programme

This paper sets out a proposed foreign policy agenda for the government of Andy Burnham, the UK’s new prime minister. Given the extent to which the UK’s fiscal and military resources are stretched, the government must identify a relatively narrow set of priorities and stick to them. These priorities should be confined, we argue, to national security, the economy and boosting the UK’s global influence.

On Europe, a first task is to complete several nearly concluded technical agreements with the EU. But there is also scope to deepen the defence and security relationship, and to coordinate policy responses regarding the Chinese competitive threat to European industries. In dealing with an unpredictable US, the UK should maintain cordial cooperation but be prepared to diverge with US positions that clash with UK interests or values.

Boosting cooperation among ‘middle powers’ should be a focus of the UK’s G20 presidency next year. On defence, there is an urgent need for the government to clarify how it plans to finance raising core spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP by 2035.

DOI: 10.55317/9781784136901

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Summary

Andy Burnham’s new government faces the same dilemmas as its predecessor in responding with limited resources to a volatile world. Foreign policy should be derived from clear national goals and interests, which now are security, the economy and strengthening the UK’s global position.
The UK must depart from the practice of trying to do too much. The priority now is to prioritize.
The government should acknowledge the limitations of being a mid-sized power and use this to the UK’s advantage. US–China rivalry injects new value into Britain’s role as a ‘strategic middle power’ making common cause with countries seeking a path between the demands of the superpowers. Advancing this agenda – including combating climate change and promoting governance of AI and digital services – should be a pre-eminent UK foreign policy goal; it should inform the hosting of next year’s G20.
Europe has prime claim on the government’s energies because of its importance to the UK for economy and defence. By the end of 2026, the UK government should aim to complete its ‘agreements to agree’ with the EU on food and animal products trade, emissions trading and youth experience. Defence collaboration should be pursued as a goal in its own right, not as a bargaining chip for negotiating better trading terms.
Burnham’s influence with the EU will be stronger if his top team reaches an early decision on whether the next Labour Party manifesto will commit the UK to joining the EU customs union, the single market or the EU itself.
Given unease about the US’s reliability as a partner in security or trade, the UK’s goal should be cordial cooperation with the Trump administration but with a readiness to diverge in views, notably on Israel and on digital regulation.
With Beijing, the UK should be politely wary and work with the EU on responding to China’s competitive threat across many industries.
Defence is an urgent challenge, not only because of the war in Ukraine and Russia’s wider threats but because funding decisions cannot wait. The government needs to narrow the scope of its defence programme primarily to the Euro-Atlantic region, keep the UK’s nuclear deterrent, and settle soon how it will pay for the NATO-led commitment to spending 3.5 per cent of GDP on defence by 2035. There is no pathway to that figure without tax rises, spending cuts elsewhere, or reductions in the current list of defence projects.

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