On November 27, 2024, an offensive by Syrian armed groups triggered the rapid collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s government in 10 days. For Syrians, the end of the Assad family’s five-decade rule has sparked cautious hope for a new chapter, albeit one laden with uncertainty.
The ascension of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as a leading force in Syria’s transition has raised critical questions about governance, international recognition, and the prospect of an inclusive and peaceful Syria—or whether the nation risks descending into further fragmentation. Large areas of the country remain under control of other groups, including Kurdish-led and non-HTS opposition forces.
How, and whether, HTS will manage to consolidate control and govern holds significant implications for both Syria and the region. Meanwhile, external actors, including Iran, Israel, Jordan, Turkey and the GCC states are reassessing the regional landscape and their role in a post-Assad Syria.
Key questions include:
- What is the current situation in Syria, and who is now in control?
- How are different political sides within Syria viewing the transition, and what are their concerns and priorities?
- What are the challenges and opportunities for HTS as it seeks to translate its localised forms of governance to a national scale?
- Is it possible for Syria to successfully transition into a democratic and inclusive political system and could a UN-led political process support this transition?
- How have the roles of external actors, such as Iran, Israel, Jordan, Turkey and the GCC states shifted and what are the implications for Syria?
