The World Today

As the election campaign gets under way, the signs are that all is not well with British democracy. Turnout in the election expected in May is likely to drop even below the dismal 59 percent of the last national poll in 2001, itself the lowest response since 1945. Opinion polls put this down to electoral dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Tony Blair’s leadership and the alternatives on offer.

The next few months offer the tantalising prospect of greater tranquillity between Israelis and Palestinians. Settlers and troops could soon be gone from Gaza. Realignments are in prospect, cautious optimism is all around.

After toppling Saddam Hussein and replacing the political order in Iraq, American hawks are said to be looking further afield. Some hardline administration voices are reportedly busy lobbying the president to accept that regime change in Tehran is the only way of preventing what many western governments have long feared – Iran’s development of a nuclear bomb.

Where does responsibility lie for the deteriorating situation on the Korean Peninsula? Is the answer to be found in secretive Stalinist North Korea or in Washington? Which state was responding rationally to events with a likely chance of its policy succeeding?

With parliamentary elections set for the end of March, all eyes have been on their freeness and fairness, or lack of it. Presidential polling is two years away, so, even at 81, Robert Mugabe will continue to dominate. Unless there is a stunning opposition victory at the parliamentary polls – and this appears unlikely – he will go on defining his country’s political trajectory.

The Chechen conflict will not be solved by more killing or the easy naming of all those who oppose Moscow as terrorists. Only the rule of law and real prospects of a better life can end the carnage. This is a message Moscow must hear loud and clear if it wishes the international community to commit the resources necessary to rebuild the shattered fabric of Chechen society.