The World Today

Who would have thought that German Chancellor Angela Merkel would have economic promise and growing personal prestige behind her as she welcomes the leaders of the Group of Eight leading industrial nations? What is the formula for making her part of ‘old Europe’ shine a little brighter?

The Demonstrators were back outside parliament in Kiev, except this time they were of a different hue to those who produced Ukraine’s Orange Revolution in late 2004. New elections are likely, but will the results be any more decisive than in the past?

President Vladimir Putin’s recent diatribes against the United States reflect a growing sense within Russia, and especially in its military, that the country’s armed forces should develop in a new direction. This change is required, it is said, because another danger has manifested itself.

The social fabric of Iraq has been torn apart. There is no single and distinct ‘Iraqi’ nationalism and the country has fractured into regions dominated by sectarian, ethnic or tribal groups. This leaves the government unable to exert authority and it is, at best, one of several ‘state-like’ actors. There is not one civil war, nor one insurgency, but several civil wars and insurgencies between different communities and organisations.

This time last year, three thousand five hundred British troops braved their way into the heart of Taliban country with low expectations of a fight and high hopes for providing security in Helmand province. So optimistic was the outlook for the deployment, that John Reid, then British Defence Secretary, described it as a reconstruction and peacekeeping mission and insisted the soldiers would return home in three years ‘without a shot being fired.’

The recent confrontation with a British patrol in the Gulf has underlined the importance of naval activities, even in mainly land conflicts. But British and French naval power is weakening as part of important longer-term reforms. Mothballing and decommissioning should end until new forces are in place.